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Potential major winter storm - Feb 24-25 PART II


snowstormcanuck

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text for Lake/Porter says potential isolated amounts up to 18"

 

 

and this

 

...

INZ001-002-241730-  /O.EXT.KLOT.LS.W.0001.160224T1800Z-160225T1600Z/  LAKE IN-PORTER-  322 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016    ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM  CST THURSDAY...    * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 55 MPH    WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHWEST    INDIANA SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN RESULTING IN LAKESHORE FLOODING    AND BEACH EROSION.  
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  

345 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016  

   

SHORT TERM  

 

345 AM CST  

 

THROUGH THURSDAY...  

 

APOLOGIZE FOR RUNNING A LITTLE LATE THIS MORNING...VERY BUSY  

SHIFT AS YOU CAN IMAGINE.  

 

OVERALL THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS LARGELY UNCHANGED. HAVE  

OPTED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST  

INDIANA TO A BLIZZARD WARNING...AS CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN REGARDING  

THE LONGEST DURATION PLACEMENT OF THE MOST INTENSE SNOW BAND.  

STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP CUT OFF TO THE SNOW ON  

THE WESTERN FLANKS...WITH POTENTIALLY UP TO A 10 INCH OR MORE  

GRADIENT FROM FAR SE COOK TO FAR NW COOK COUNTY.  

 

STILL ANTICIPATE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW TO BE HEAVY...WET...AND  

NOT PARTICULARLY BLOWABLE...HOWEVER THE FALLING SNOW ALONE IN THE  

HEAVIEST BAND(S) SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM KNOCKING VISIBILITIES TO  

ONE QUARTER MILE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH  

FREQUENT GUST TO 45 MPH WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WIND WHIPPED SNOW  

CAUSING WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER NEAR  

LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. JUST TO  

THE NORTHWEST OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING...PERIODIC WHITE AND  

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS  

HIGH AND SNOWFALL GRADIENT SHOULD BE LARGER...SO OPTED TO MAKE NO  

CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF THE INHERITED HEADLINES. CONDITIONS WILL  

IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...THOUGH SOME LAKE  

ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW COULD KEEP INTENSITY UP INTO THE NIGHT  

OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA.  

 

GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF MESOSCALE BANDING...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE  

SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL NEED TO BE TWEAKED SOME DURING THE EVENT.  

HOWEVER...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE AVAILABLE SUITE OF HIRES  

MESOSCALE MODELS HAS ADDED SOME DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE TO THE  

FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL MAP. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR A SWATH  

OF 6 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW FROM FORD/IROQUOIS COUNTIES NORTHEAST  

ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA. MULTIPLE MODELS SUGGEST THE PIVOT POINT  

FOR THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL BE OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST  

INDIANA...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH SOME POSSIBLE MINOR LAKE  

ENHANCEMENT COULD RESULT IN MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS APPROACHING A FOOT  

AND A HALF IN SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS BY LATE TONIGHT.  

 

IZZI  

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IWX just issued a Blizzard Warning for the western part of their CWA:

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
529 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...BLIZZARD LIKELY TO MAKE TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA...

INZ003-004-012>015-020-241900-
/O.NEW.KIWX.BZ.W.0001.160224T1300Z-160225T0300Z/
/O.EXT.KIWX.WS.W.0003.160225T0300Z-160225T2100Z/
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-WHITE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...PLYMOUTH...
BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...
MONON
529 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 /429 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016/

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING TO 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/
THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A
BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/
THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING. THE WINTER
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING POSSIBLY
BEGINNING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID
EVENING.

* STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO AS MUCH AS 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID EVENING.

* NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL RESULT IN
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
MID EVENING.

IMPACTS...

* TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OCCURRING FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID EVENING WHEN TRAVEL MAY BECOME
IMPOSSIBLE.

 

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