snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 NAM ends up spitting out 2-3" of snow on the front end for YYZ. RGEM looks like it may be even more generous. For this to work we're going to need a constant flow of dry air out of the Ottawa Valley to make evap. cooling possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 NAM ends up spitting out 2-3" of snow on the front end for YYZ. RGEM looks like it may be even more generous. For this to work we're going to need a constant flow of dry air out of the Ottawa Valley to make evap. cooling possible. Other than with GHD #1, has the RGEM ever pulled a coup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Other than with GHD #1, has the RGEM ever pulled a coup? lol, it's crap...especially lately. Mentioning it fyi to the Toronto posters. If I have to say something nice about it I think if it does have a strong point for uber deep storms like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Anything other than rain here? Sorry about the imby question..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Anything other than rain here? Sorry about the imby question..... On the front end, it doesn't look like it. We should get at least a few inches from the wrap-around. More possible if we get some lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Defo defintely more west in MI Yup... That was the biggest thing I took away from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Other than with GHD #1, has the RGEM ever pulled a coup?The Sleet Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 GFS looks pretty similar to 6z 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 GFS looks pretty similar to 6z 6z 12z Still a good 100 miles NW of the NAM. Impressive lack of budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 would trash any other event this year IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 None of the models really wanna budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 GFS showing .75" of liquid for downtown Chicago with the Euro showing DAB (if that) and barely over 24 hours out....LOT has their work cut out for them today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 GFS has 9 inches in South MI, can't complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 would trash any other event this year IMBY Same. Cautiously optimistic that it won't be cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Same. Cautiously optimistic that it won't be cement. it's definitely going to be cement (i'm thinking 8:1), you can take that to the bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 it's definitely going to be cement (i'm thinking 8:1), you can take that to the bank Yep - a paste job for whoever is lucky enough. Either way, no one is really missing out, as it will be in the 50s 3 days later, just like with the November storm. Boo hoo. More like a late March/early April storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Yep - a paste job for whoever is lucky enough. Either way, no one is really missing out, as it will be in the 50s 3 days later that's best case scenario, literally perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 GFS has 9 inches in South MI, can't complain Not really. Stop looking at the 10:1 maps. And even that is probably over doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Not really. Stop looking at the 10:1 maps. And even that is probably over doing it. Congrats Alpena (and they are not even under a WSW at this point). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Congrats Alpena (and they are not even under a WSW at this point). APX has been pretty conservative on forecasting with the consistent differences in the models. ECM and NAM have been hinting at much lower totals than the farther west tracking GFS 6" or less which isn't even warning criteria for us up here. A 50-100 mile track change will have big changes in where the snow will fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The story of the winter has been the questionable thermos. This storm is no different. There aren't going to be historic snowfalls with such terrible ratios. With that said we can still sit back and enjoy the extreme low pressure and unique setup with this system. There will be heavy wet snow in a zone of high wind giving way to a short "blizzard" period for a select few. Not to be forgotten is the severe setup on the southern end of this system. I believe there could be a few very strong tornadoes in the South which may end up being the bigger story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Missing this one is definitely nowhere near as painful as previously feared with the models in general no longer showing the crazy QPF amounts and big dog snow totals in the cold sector. Not to mention the models have really backed off with the Siberian crap behind this storm. Looking more and more like a run of the mill 6-10"+ storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Missing this one is definitely nowhere near as painful as previously feared with the models in general no longer showing the crazy QPF amounts and big dog snow totals in the cold sector. Not to mention the models have really backed off with the Siberian crap behind this storm. Looking more and more like a run of the mill 6-10"+ storm. Only thing special with this one is the blowing and drifting and power outage threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Good spot^ Would then move over Little Rock after that which I said days ago for us to get a solid event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Only thing special with this one is the blowing and drifting and power outage threat You mean the tree limbs and power lines that will come down from the weight and wind.No blowing 8:1 paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I sense optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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