IllinoisWedges Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 The main part of the storm wasn't supposed to get into NE IL until rush hour. The deformation band is predicted to pivot back westward later. As long as the low gets up to Evansville, Chicago is still very much in play. NAM made me believe it was just supposed to sit over us all day, my bad. Thanks, Geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 i think Evansville is out, never even knew it was in play but again my map reading prob leaves a lot to be desired... if it got there they'd have zero to worry about me thinks and would have some nice totals even nearing up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Latest RAP is pretty close to keeping us all snow, surprisingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 NAM made me believe it was just supposed to sit over us all day, my bad. Thanks, Geos. Just dream about the 18z GFS run tonight! To the SLP. Current position and EVV is NNE of there. Looking good to me. Edit: Too bad the low doesn't come a little farther north - like Bloomington, IN. then turns ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Kinda funny how Evansville has become a benchmark of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Get out your super bestest magnet for that. I'm dreaming about all the sleep i could be getting right now if i never seen the 18z gfs.. what a tease that was only to not put out at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Latest RAP is pretty close to keeping us all snow, surprisingly. Yep saw that. Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 At 06z, the low was down to about 991 mb just north of KMKL over western TN, which has a west wind of 10 kt and that 991 mb pressure. Since the low was just north of MKL, it's possible pressure is/was 990 mb. Comparing this to 06z position from the 00z runs, GFS and UKMET are closest, NAM is pretty close but a hair west and Euro is too far east, along with 4km NAM. I wouldn't get too worried about the recent runs of the RAP and HRRR yet. Best to just monitor obs and radar trends before jumping off a cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Kinda funny how Evansville has become a benchmark of sorts. do you forsee the low going near there.. i can't i wish though.. Normally my benchmark is a lot closer to NW of indy.. but this is coming out a different beast down south. Anyways good luck there by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Latest RAP is pretty close to keeping us all snow, surprisingly. HRRR is trending that way as well, definitely all snow from MTC to Ann Arbor north. Also noticed dew points have dropped a tick or two over the area in the last 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Pretty good risk for thunder across Central MI and Northern IN (areas that are expected to remain mostly snow) per the SPC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 HRRR is trending that way as well, definitely all snow from MTC to Ann Arbor north. Good signs for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Well that was very nice bedtime story from ricky after i scared some to thoughts of jumping! Good night for real this time.. I promise, no more of my rambling, you all can rejoice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 07z update...surface low 990 mb or so...southwest of Paris, Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 thanks lol, now i have to google paris, TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 HRRR is trending that way as well, definitely all snow from MTC to Ann Arbor north. Also noticed dew points have dropped a tick or two over the area in the last 3 hours. RAP also shows a couple opportunity for pretty intense rates (14z-16z and 19z-22z) as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 do you forsee the low going near there.. i can't i wish though.. Normally my benchmark is a lot closer to NW of indy.. but this is coming out a different beast down south. Anyways good luck there by you. It could get close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 thanks lol, now i have to google paris, TN. That was done intentionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It could get close. Thanks for reply.. I'll be curious for sure in the am to see where it goes in relation to there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 That was done intentionally. You can call my boss in 4 hrs and tell him I got the white powder flu, tyvm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 At 06z, the low was down to about 991 mb just north of KMKL over western TN, which has a west wind of 10 kt and that 991 mb pressure. Since the low was just north of MKL, it's possible pressure is/was 990 mb. Comparing this to 06z position from the 00z runs, GFS and UKMET are closest, NAM is pretty close but a hair west and Euro is too far east, along with 4km NAM. I wouldn't get too worried about the recent runs of the RAP and HRRR yet. Best to just monitor obs and radar trends before jumping off a cliff. Well said. It was pretty obvious the EURO was too far east. FYI to anyone not knowing where MKL is, it is Jackson, TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Actually may be more like south of Paris rather than southwest, but close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Kinda funny how Evansville has become a benchmark of sorts. Yeah I remember that was a location that was referenced many times with the original GHD storm back in 2011. That ended up boding very well for this area, but just goes to show how different each storm is. Evansville in 2011 with GHD #1 meant 18" here vs nothing to perhaps a few rogue flakes here in 2016. Way tighter cold sector precip corridor with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 WPC Track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Meso analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 More or less it has taken this path today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Meso analysis It'll be interesting to see if the low center actually follows the path of the best pressure falls on that map (which would take the low between CVG and EVV). But although it can be a good indicator, that doesn't always happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Can anyone post the the 3z SREF? for some reason website just hangs and doesn't load correctly thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It'll be interesting to see if the low center actually follows the path of the best pressure falls on that map (which would take the low between CVG and EVV). But although it can be a good indicator, that doesn't always happen If I extroplate my plot, Owensboro is the city it intersects. Not too far from EVV. ~25 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Can anyone post the the 3z SREF? for some reason website just hangs and doesn't load correctly thanks DEC has a snowfall mean of 8.1". Hoosier over 11" now. ORD pretty steady around 7". About 5" and change here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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