UMB WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Man,I'm starting to get worried I'm a bit too far east now haha. Luckily the trend has been colder as well as NW. Safely below freezing right now, with an earlier starting time I don't see it getting up to 36 as forecasted. I don't think you'll be wanting to take a toaster bath after this one is over. Thinks you're in a darn decent spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 WILX (local news station) just upped all of Southern Michigan to a foot (sans the Branch-Hillsdale-Lenawee area's who got upped to 8-9) saying they talked to the NWS and after looking at models they feel the Euro and Canadian are going to win this one. Anyone willing to explain this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Hey clear skies tonight are helping it to cool off more. I would go 6" from Highland Park to ORD down to Joliet/Plainfield. Hey! That includes me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packle Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Cooled to 36 quickly after sunset, but hasn't budged for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 No way the Euro won't bust on the western fringes. The 12z run had like .5 qpf here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 WILX (local news station) just upped all of Southern Michigan to a foot (sans the Branch-Hillsdale-Lenawee area's who got upped to 8-9) saying they talked to the NWS and after looking at models they feel the Euro and Canadian are going to win this one. Anyone willing to explain this? I think your question has been answered to your liking in what you heard was the NWS opinion. You're getting a lot of snow..no matter what model you pull out of the hat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 991.9 mb at Jackson TN, slightly NE of Memphis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 GEM looks like a carbon copy almost of the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M4XiMuS Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Dry air proving to be awfully persistent around LSX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 could be a good sign for those wanting help to the east. why am i still up again when the alarm will be going off in a handful of hrs for a storm to give more salt than snow probably. Its been fun still though even with the disappointing ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Most recent meso analysis and pressure falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 not a good spot to eject from for here especially with nothing to really tug it up. probably a good thing for those east obviously as its already not the best thermals for ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Chicago contingent not very vocal. I guess it's late and they're probably cautiously optimistic not wanting to jinx it lol.. Good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Most recent meso analysis and pressure falls. Looks about right. Low then heads towards Paducah/Land Between the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 MKX going with advisories for Kenosha and Racine. 935FXUS63 KMKX 240326AFDMKXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI926 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016.UPDATE...UPSTREAM LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WANE THISEVENING AS WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE TROF RUNS INTO DRIER AIR OVEREASTERN WISCONSIN ALONG WITH SHORT RANGE RIDGING AHEAD OFDEEPENING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING TENNESSEE VALLEY.BUMPED UP POPS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AS EXPECT SNOW TOSPREAD INTO THE RACINE AND KENOSHA AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON ANDPOSSIBLY MILWAUKEE. 00Z NAM ALSO IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARDWITH SFC LOW PRESSURE AND 850H CIRCULATION. ALSO NOTICED THAT 00ZNAM GRAZES FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH A PERIOD OF MID-LAYERFRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.HENCE LEANING TOWARD THIS SYSTEM HAVING A GREATER IMPACT ON FARSOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH SNOWFALL MORE IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE INTHE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE FALLING SNOW AND OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF35 TO 40 MPH LIKELY TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE.HENCE PENDING THE REST OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE...LIKELY THAT AWINTER WX ADVY OR POSSIBLY A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUEDFOR RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES WITH THE NEW FORECAST PACKAGEEARLY WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Looks about right. Low then heads towards Paducah/Land Between the Lakes. Would that put it in line with the RAP/HRRR/GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 i wish it was going to Paducah. not gonna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Poking around at obs, lowest pressure I can find at 5z is 991 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 GEM looks like a carbon copy almost of the RGEM Is it too much of a Homer to say that I want this to verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Would that put it in line with the RAP/HRRR/GFS?Yeah looks similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Chicago contingent not very vocal. I guess it's late and they're probably cautiously optimistic not wanting to jinx it lol.. Good night. They could also be biting their tongues/fingers so as not to respond to a few INSISTING this going east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 They could also be biting their tongues/fingers so as not to respond to a few INSISTING this going east...You know us too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 They could also be biting their tongues/fingers so as not to respond to a few INSISTING this going east... yeah i suppose but i think everyone has been pretty good considering. I just think they're more biting their nails to something could go wrong yet to make it very pedestrian over something to remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Is it too much of a Homer to say that I want this to verify? Even though the Canadian models don't give me huge amounts of snow, I still agree with Hillsdale when he said yesterday they "spread the wealth. That snow area is pretty far west into WI and pretty far southeast into OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 yeah i suppose but i think everyone has been pretty good considering. I just think they're more biting their nails to something could go wrong yet to make it very pedestrian over something to remember Hahh. I have that slight anxiety I too will wake up tomorrow morning and everything will be 100 miles east. This winter has been tough on us all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Yeah looks similar Nerve wrecking next few hours for us in the STL metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 MKX going with advisories for Kenosha and Racine. they could have said what they just did in the afternoon AFD. whatever maybe right along lake in kenosha can pull and inch or two i suppose.. I just don't see any surprises at all in wi and if anything i could see more of a shutout unless you're close to the border where a band might set up for a bit to the north down south more by geos area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 HRRR continues to blast St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 WPC says "compromise!" ...STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW LIFTING FROM THE OZARKS TOWARD THELOWER GREAT LAKES......ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/ATTENDANT BOUNDARIES...PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWFFORECAST CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGEWATER VAPOR IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE CLOSED UPPER LOWSPINNING OVER SOUTHERN AR. WELL ESTABLISHED COMMA-HEADPRECIPITATION WAS FALLING OVER THE OZARKS AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERNLOW PLAINS. MEANWHILE...ABUNDANT CONVECTION WAS PREVALENT ACROSSMUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST EXTENDING UP INTO THE TN VALLEY.ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST AS THE COMPACT UPPERLOW BEGINS TO LATERALLY EXPAND AND DEEPEN. REGARDING THE SURFACELOW TRACK...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEST/EAST DIFFERENCESBETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS SUITE SUPPORTING A CYCLONENORTHWESTERN OH BY 25/0000Z WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS FAVORSOMETHING ON THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. OF COURSE THIS HASRAMIFICATIONS ON HOW FAR WEST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXTENDBACK INTO IL/WI. IT IS DIFFICULT TO IGNORE HOW CONSISTENT THE GFSHAS BEEN WITH THIS SOLUTION THOUGH. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INTHE SCATTER LOW PLOT ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR TO ONE ANOTHER DURINGTHE DAY 1 PERIOD. THIS IS NOTED IN THE 12Z CYCLE AS WELL AS THE00Z CYCLE THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE PREFERENCE WILL SPLIT THEDIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS WITH A 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF BLENDAS THE RECOMMENDATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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