snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 Large dewpoint depression has me more confident that about an inch, maybe 2" north of the 401, falls on Toronto with the initial burst of precip. The system looks like it's going to occlude quickly enough to prevent a vigorous advection of warm air. Pity there wasn't any, even modest, arctic high pressure to the north. There could have been a more expansive snow shield to the east of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Good luck to everyone impacted in the thread tonight - I'm about as fringe as you'll probably find in this entire subforum for the precip cutoff and the prospects don't look good IMBY. Hoping that enough of the glorious white stuff falls east of me to at least induce a snow day @ work. I'm down in Cape Girardeau & will be driving to & working in Perryville tomorrow morning. Driving back to Cape at about noon. It's going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 That's SE of Memphis, looks a bit east of where the west models projected. I'm thinking from you north are pretty much out of the equation for anything more than light snow/flurries. If it's east of the consensus, it's by an eyelash. Looks to be largely on target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M4XiMuS Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I'm down in Cape Girardeau & will be driving to & working in Perryville tomorrow morning. Driving back to Cape at about noon. It's going to be interesting. Sure you are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 wisconsinwx trolling Geos. That's classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 LOT still says 2-9", depending on location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M4XiMuS Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Latest from LSX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Sure you are... Driving? I have a 4x4 truck. I'll make it. If I see it is too bad I'll just keep my butt home. It has to be pretty bad though. You know how that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M4XiMuS Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Driving? I have a 4x4 truck. I'll make it. If I see it is too bad I'll just keep my butt home. It has to be pretty bad though. You know how that goes. I don't know about you, but it's never my own driving abilities that I worry about in MO. Most folks here seem to be purely petrified when it comes to the thought of driving in/on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Large dewpoint depression has me more confident that about an inch, maybe 2" north of the 401, falls on Toronto with the initial burst of precip. The system looks like it's going to occlude quickly enough to prevent a vigorous advection of warm air. Pity there wasn't any, even modest, arctic high pressure to the north. There could have been a more expansive snow shield to the east of the low. Barring any last minute surprises, my prelim call of 1-2" for tomorrow looks on target. The 00z NAM (both 12 km and 4 km) have a healthy defo band of snow on Thursday to the tune of 3-4". The 00z RGEM is more like 1-2". Should be an interesting 48 hours ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 From LSX Snowfall rates may be quite high across parts of southeast MO and southwest IL Wednesday morning and may have to increase snow amounts a little mainly south and east of STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 One thing that is apparent on the runs this evening is that the short range runs are deeper/tucking the sfc low farther west than the globals...hence you see the RAP/HRRR getting the low to around EVV while the other models aren't doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 Barring any last minute surprises, my prelim call of 1-2" for tomorrow looks on target. The 00z NAM (both 12 km and 4 km) have a healthy defo band of snow on Thursday to the tune of 3-4". The 00z RGEM is more like 1-2". Should be an interesting 48 hours ahead. Yeah, the deformation zone definitely looks to provide more lucre for us. Finally, the 0z GFS is jumping on board in that regard. edit: 0z GFS with a more defined defo zone but temps are marginal at best with its further west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 GFS 00z Kuchera and 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 GFS 00z Kuchera and 10:1 this is as far west as Rockford now, which wasn't even in play yesterday or any day prior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 One thing that is apparent on the runs this evening is that the short range runs are deeper/tucking the sfc low farther west than the globals...hence you see the RAP/HRRR getting the low to around EVV while the other models aren't doing that. Yeah that's typical. GFS is east of the HRRR/RAP. 2-3" in my forecast. I'll go with that, hope for more or colder temps. For the record the low was south of Memphis the image updated automatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 firgured gfs would compromise with other models and take away a lot of what little more of what it was dealing up this way. nice for those east riding razor thin line of taint or mostly all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Yeah that's typical. GFS is east of the HRRR/RAP. 2-3" in my forecast. I'll go with that, hope for more or colder temps. Typically weight the short range models higher at this point (especially at <12 hours out, and new model runs every hour should capture things better than models run every 6 hours) but I guess we'll see. This could make more of a difference for areas up north like Chicago proper as to whether it's just a pretty good snowstorm or all-out hammer time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 FWIW 0Z RGEM still the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 don't foresee any real good surprises on the north and west side going forward. now in the other direction i would not be surprised to see some help if you need 20+ miles as the crow flys to help you for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Hot off the press: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Wind has really picked up here. Already gusting at 40 mph+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 moon out here. not encouraging to me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Hot off the press: Still too low around the Chicago area IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Man,I'm starting to get worried I'm a bit too far east now haha. Luckily the trend has been colder as well as NW. Safely below freezing right now, with an earlier starting time I don't see it getting up to 36 as forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 5-8" seems about right for chicago.. could bust either direction some i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Still too low around the Chicago area IMO Agree. If I had to guess I would go with about 6" out by ORD...10+ from around the city proper and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 moon out here. not encouraging to me lol Hey clear skies tonight are helping it to cool off more. I would go 6" from Highland Park to ORD down to Joliet/Plainfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Agree. If I had to guess I would go with about 6" out by ORD...10+ from around the city proper and south. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Still 37 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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