Potential major winter storm - Feb 24-25 PART II

[Geos]

I thought chicago and detroit would be battling for jackpot of the big cities with Chicago taking it... Never even thought about stl.. That could be a great heavy weight fight between stl and chicago.

 

At least im about as east as you can get in wisconsin lol.  Not very often i can remember stl and chicago getting buried and we mostly miss to the north of the border but where this is ejection its a perfect way to. boom or nothing for these ejectors east here like GHD.

 

Yeah it's pretty unusual to see that kind of a cutoff around here. Need to get one of those outside bands to form and blow in off the lake tomorrow evening.

[snowstormcanuck]

Just want to put it on record. EE "rule" got embarrassed nuclear with this storm.

[Hoosier]

Fwiw, the HRRR wind gust product has some areas bumping up against warning criteria at the end of the run.

[Hoosier]

Just came in here to take a look.

But yeah, I think double digits are in play for us...if things go right. 0z NAM is pretty sexy. 6-10" with upside would be my call. Coupled with pretty gusty winds, and wild times potentially to be had.

Hope you'll be around for this one.

[A-L-E-K]

Euro definitely appears to be heading for a weak sauce performance

[UMB WX]

Yeah it's pretty unusual to see that kind of a cutoff around here. Need to get one of those outside bands to form and blow in off the lake tomorrow evening.

 

especially with Detroit missing the good snow maybe to the north.. so its not like detroit is getting missed  to the south like us to.. bizarre.. winter 2016

[Packle]

LOT may end up needing Blizzard Warning at some point. But forgive me if the getting the "Blizzard Watch" is more of a novelty for me..

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Euro definitely appears to be heading for a weak sauce performance

 

Unless the Euro somehow gets a coup (not gonna happen), it's previous runs will have busted hard. Same for the GEM.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Nice!

 

.UPDATE...
835 PM CST

WHILE THE ONLY CHANGE WITH HEADLINES WILL BE TO ADD LAKE COUNTY
ILLINOIS INTO AN ADVISORY THIS EVENING...THERE IS GROWING CONCERN
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT LEAST IN FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR AT
LEAST NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN OTHER PARTS OF THE WARNING
AREA...INCLUDING COOK COUNTY...AND AT A HIGH IMPACT TIME OF THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COMMUTE. BOTTOM LINE...THAT
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING TIME WILL PRESENT
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS AT LEAST A LARGE PART OF THE
WARNING AREA.

HAVE BOOSTED SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WARNING AREA AS CONFIDENCE
IN BANDING IN THIS AREA CONTINUES TO GROW...AS WELL AS A SLIGHTLY
FURTHER WEST/NORTHWEST SHIFT ENCOMPASSING MORE OF COOK AND WILL
COUNTIES. A HIGHER CORRIDOR OF BAND/BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH
RESIDENCE TIME IN OUR CWA IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKELY...AND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 10 PLUS INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN CONVECTIVE-LIKE
RATES AT TIMES AND THE WET CLUMPY SNOW ADDING TO THE QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS STILL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FAVORED
CORRIDOR OF BANDED SNOW PLACEMENT BETWEEN GLOBAL AND HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF
BANDS IN A COMPLEX SYSTEM...FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA TO FAR EASTERN
ILLINOIS INTO DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. BUT THE PROXIMITY IN TIME AND
SEEING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND THEIR SUPPORTING HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS AND THE NAM/SREF/GFS...WARRANTS BOOSTING FORECAST AMOUNTS.

ALSO FOR THE ENTIRE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA WILL BE WEAVING
INTO FORECAST IMPACTS MESSAGING THE POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A WET SNOW AND HIGH WINDS. ALWAYS A
CHALLENGE WITH THESE WETTER SNOW EVENTS TO GAUGE HOW THAT WILL
DETRACT FROM BLOWING...BUT DO RECALL THAT THE JAN 31-FEB 1 2015
STORM CAUSED POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ITS HEAVY WET NATURE WITH
INCREASING WINDS.

OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE SUPPORTING A MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...IN A WEST/NORTHWEST
EXPANSION IN THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THE MAIN CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW WITH A NEGATIVE TILT ALREADY AND BEGINNING ITS NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. A PERSISTENT STRETCH OF ELEVATED
RADAR ECHOES FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHEAST TO KANKAKEE IS
HIGHLIGHTING THE ELEVATED TIGHTENING FRONTAL ZONE AND LIKELY
PAINTS THE CORRIDOR ON WHERE SNOW WILL FILL IN QUICKLY LATE
TONIGHT AND MUCH MORE SO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS AXIS WILL EXPAND
AND PIVOT NORTHWARD AS THE WELL-DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM. THIS MAKES CONCEPTUAL SENSE TO PULL
STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTING MESOSCALE BANDING FURTHER
WEST/NORTHWEST...SO FEEL BETTER PUSHING UP SNOW AMOUNTS AND
EXPANDING BACK WEST/NORTHWEST SOME.

WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
BASICALLY HOLD STEADY AND THEN TAKE A QUICK DROP AFTER SNOW
STARTS. SOME INITIAL MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT IT SHOULD BE
BRIEF. RATES WILL OVERCOME THE NOW WARMER PAVEMENT...THE QUESTION
JUST IS HOW QUICKLY. WOULD EXPECT THAT WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
PROBLEM BY EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON WHAT WE ARE SEEING.

HAVE UPPED POPS TO BASICALLY 100S IN THE WARNING AREA AND THROUGH
ITS DURATION. HAVE ALSO ADDED BLOWING SNOW WORDING IN NORTHWEST
INDIANA...AND AGAIN MOST CONCERNED IN LAKE AND PORTER WHERE
UNINHIBITED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THOSE COUNTIES.

UPDATED WSW...FORECAST...AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC WILL BE SENT
SHORTLY.

[Central Illinois]

Local mets here are gonna bust hard going with only 1-4" while ILX is going with 4-7"

[Chicago WX]

Hope you'll be around for this one.

 

Well, I'll be out in it. But yeah, I know what you're saying. I'm hoping to snag some pics/video...if this really does come to fruition. Hopefully it does.   

[A-L-E-K]

Ramping up

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Per new AFD update, GRR is liking a chance for higher snow accums. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

And the plot thickens

 

.UPDATE...

NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ANY
ADJUSTMENTS WILL AWAIT THE ANALYSIS OF THE FULL 00Z MODEL
SUITE. THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP NOW SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CHURNING
OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. THE 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 995MB SFC LOW OVER NRN
MISSISSIPPI. THE LAST FEW SFC ANALYSES AND RECENT SFC PRESSURE
CHANGE SUGGEST THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT INTO WRN TENNESSEE/WRN
KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. SUGGESTING THE MORNING GFS RUN MAY INDEED BE
A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST...YET ALSO RAISING SOME CONCERNS THE ECMWF
MAY HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAR EAST.

THIS DOES SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT THE SERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL FLUCTUATE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND BACK AT TIMES...WITH THE
FAR SOUTHEAST /MONROE TO DOWNTOWN DETROIT/ POSSIBLY REMAINING ALL
RAIN INTO THE EVENING BEFORE FULLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. LATER
FORECAST SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE THERMAL PROFILE AS
THIS WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
/ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF AN ANN ARBOR TO PORT HURON LINE/.
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW AND
STRONG MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WITH TREMENDOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL SUPPORT SOLID WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL.

AS FAR AS THE EVENING UPDATE...THE RECENT HRRR AND 00Z NAM ARE
PICKING UP ON THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR /NOTED ON THE 00Z DTX
SOUNDING/. THIS WILL SUPPORT BACKING OFF THE ONSET OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN DETROIT SUBURBS BY A COUPLE HOURS. THE LEAD
EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REACH DETROIT/ANN ARBOR AROUND
11Z...THEN LIFT INTO FLINT AND PORT HURON AROUND 13Z.

[ILSNOW]

this was from sunday.  Not bad!!!
 

rom chicago nws

 

SOUTHWEST SYSTEMS SUCH AS THE ONE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK TEND TO
BE MOISTURE LADEN...AND WITH THIS ONE LOOKING TO BE ABLE TO TAP
INTO GULF MOISTURE...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL. GIVEN THE CURRENT ADVERTISED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THIS
COULD PLACE THE CHICAGO REGION IN THE FAVORABLE REGION FOR HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND POTENTIAL VERY STRONG WINDS AS WELL GIVEN A
POTENTIAL SUB 990 MB LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IF THIS WERE TO ALL
COME TOGETHER...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME HEAVY SNOW IN
COMBINATION WITH HIGH WINDS AND HENCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW
AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE PRESENT TIME I HAVE REMAINED
FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ON SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
PORTIONS OF MY SOUTHEAST COULD HAVE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES ON
WEDNESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP CONSIDERABLY IF
THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS MORE NORTHWEST TRACK.

•  

[Geos]

SLP just south of Memphis right now.

 

[UMB WX]

is that like rough plot thickner thick

[Powerball]

is that like rough plot thickner thick

 

?

[UMB WX]

would of been sweet to see that slp by the indiana/Illinois border

[UMB WX]

?

 

i dunno lol.. it was a terrible joke to the the plot thickens by hillsbros.

[ohiocat5908]

The EURO parallel  seems to be doing well up to this point in terms of track/strength.

[Geos]

2z HRRR gets the low to the confluence of the OH and Wabash River this run. Ice on the maps is weird.

 

[UMB WX]

now that's kinna where i said id like see the low then heading to michican would be swell to for craps and giggles.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

The EURO parallel  seems to be doing well up to this point in terms of track/strength.

 

Yep, following that and the SPC's map well right now. We will see.

[RyanDe680]

I think that Stebo is right about the dews.  I think that is what is playing out on the snow totals continuing to rise.  

 

As soon as the lower layer saturates, the temp drops will support the snow

[Thundersnow12]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  
839 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
   
UPDATE  
 
835 PM CST  
 
WHILE THE ONLY CHANGE WITH HEADLINES WILL BE TO ADD LAKE COUNTY  
ILLINOIS INTO AN ADVISORY THIS EVENING...THERE IS GROWING CONCERN  
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT LEAST IN FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS ALSO CONCERN FOR AT  
LEAST NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN OTHER PARTS OF THE WARNING  
AREA...INCLUDING COOK COUNTY...AND AT A HIGH IMPACT TIME OF THE  
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COMMUTE. BOTTOM LINE...THAT  
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING TIME WILL PRESENT  
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS AT LEAST A LARGE PART OF THE  
WARNING AREA.  
 
HAVE BOOSTED SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WARNING AREA AS CONFIDENCE  
IN BANDING IN THIS AREA CONTINUES TO GROW...AS WELL AS A SLIGHTLY  
FURTHER WEST/NORTHWEST SHIFT ENCOMPASSING MORE OF COOK AND WILL  
COUNTIES. A HIGHER CORRIDOR OF BAND/BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH  
RESIDENCE TIME IN OUR CWA IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKELY...AND  
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 10 PLUS INCHES OF SNOW GIVEN CONVECTIVE-LIKE  
RATES AT TIMES AND THE WET CLUMPY SNOW ADDING TO THE QUICK  
ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS STILL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FAVORED  
CORRIDOR OF BANDED SNOW PLACEMENT BETWEEN GLOBAL AND HIGH-RES  
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF  
BANDS IN A COMPLEX SYSTEM...FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA TO FAR EASTERN  
ILLINOIS INTO DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. BUT THE PROXIMITY IN TIME AND  
SEEING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND THEIR SUPPORTING HIGH-RESOLUTION  
MODELS AND THE NAM/SREF/GFS...WARRANTS BOOSTING FORECAST AMOUNTS.  
 
ALSO FOR THE ENTIRE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA WILL BE WEAVING  
INTO FORECAST IMPACTS MESSAGING THE POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES  
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A WET SNOW AND HIGH WINDS. ALWAYS A  
CHALLENGE WITH THESE WETTER SNOW EVENTS TO GAUGE HOW THAT WILL  
DETRACT FROM BLOWING...BUT DO RECALL THAT THE JAN 31-FEB 1 2015  
STORM CAUSED POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ITS HEAVY WET NATURE WITH  
INCREASING WINDS.  
 
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE SUPPORTING A MAJORITY OF THE  
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...IN A WEST/NORTHWEST  
EXPANSION IN THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WATER  
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THE MAIN CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM  
LOW WITH A NEGATIVE TILT ALREADY AND BEGINNING ITS NORTHEAST  
MOVEMENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. A PERSISTENT STRETCH OF ELEVATED  
RADAR ECHOES FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHEAST TO KANKAKEE IS  
HIGHLIGHTING THE ELEVATED TIGHTENING FRONTAL ZONE AND LIKELY  
PAINTS THE CORRIDOR ON WHERE SNOW WILL FILL IN QUICKLY LATE  
TONIGHT AND MUCH MORE SO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS AXIS WILL EXPAND  
AND PIVOT NORTHWARD AS THE WELL-DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM WAVE  
PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM. THIS MAKES CONCEPTUAL SENSE TO PULL  
STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORTING MESOSCALE BANDING FURTHER  
WEST/NORTHWEST...SO FEEL BETTER PUSHING UP SNOW AMOUNTS AND  
EXPANDING BACK WEST/NORTHWEST SOME.  
 
WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO  
BASICALLY HOLD STEADY AND THEN TAKE A QUICK DROP AFTER SNOW  
STARTS. SOME INITIAL MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT IT SHOULD BE  
BRIEF. RATES WILL OVERCOME THE NOW WARMER PAVEMENT...THE QUESTION  
JUST IS HOW QUICKLY. WOULD EXPECT THAT WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A  
PROBLEM BY EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON WHAT WE ARE SEEING.  
 
HAVE UPPED POPS TO BASICALLY 100S IN THE WARNING AREA AND THROUGH  
ITS DURATION. HAVE ALSO ADDED BLOWING SNOW WORDING IN NORTHWEST  
INDIANA...AND AGAIN MOST CONCERNED IN LAKE AND PORTER WHERE  
UNINHIBITED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF  
THOSE COUNTIES.  
 
UPDATED WSW...FORECAST...AND WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC WILL BE SENT  
SHORTLY.  
 
MTF

[wisconsinwx]

now that's kinna where i said id like see the low then heading to michican would be swell to for craps and giggles.

 

If only this thing wouldn't scoot ENE once it hits the OV.

[wisconsinwx]

SLP just south of Memphis right now.

 

 

That's SE of Memphis, looks a bit east of where the west models projected.  I'm thinking from you north are pretty much out of the equation for anything more than light snow/flurries.

[M4XiMuS]

Good luck to everyone impacted in the thread tonight - I'm about as fringe as you'll probably find in this entire subforum for the precip cutoff and the prospects don't look good IMBY.  Hoping that enough of the glorious white stuff falls east of me to at least induce a snow day @ work.  

[SchaumburgStormer]

That's SE of Memphis, looks a bit east of where the west models projected. I'm thinking from you north are pretty much out of the equation for anything more than light snow/flurries.

Geos to me to lassale Peru is the no snow like I think