blizzardof96 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 RAP/4kNAM in pretty good agreement. They have SN between ~12-17z for the GTA. Changeover should occur some time between 16-18z. It's pretty smooth with the possibility of some PL as that occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Major storms always seem to push moisture further north than many expect, when the east coast had the blizzard a month ago the heaviest falls were in PA and NYC while MD was widely favored (they did almost as well). I think this one will set up heaviest bands from ORD south-southwest partly due to lake enhancement but with no lake still an 8" storm, the lake doubles the outcome within 40-50 miles. I do agree that there will be very sharp cutoffs on western edge of precip, RFD might get 4" and MLI 1-2' DBQ trace to 1" sort of a deal. Within Chicagoland, would expect heavier bands across south side and a second area hitting near Evanston and into north side, could be less in between. A third lake effect band will probably set up across Kenosha. Track of low likely to be NNE then ENE turning around 50 nw IND. Just to correct you on this, the heaviest "falls" from the blizzard were not in PA or NY. The widest area of 30"+ was in NW MD and VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Yeah I totally agree, this is going to be some concrete, east coast backbreaker snow. Guess who volunteered to go on baby duty the next 2 nights? Model watching with little dude. I remember my first 20"er with the lil dude, good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 fwiw, end of the latest RAP has a 984 mb in southeastern Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It would be close to a slam dunk if it were a powdery storm. Even if we don't see blizzard warnings, I think there's a pretty decent chance the criteria will be met in some spots. Totally agree based on latest guidance. Already regretting not getting on the road a few hours ago! I won't be a bit surprised to see a slightly deeper system than models progged at 12z and an increase in the heavier snowfall totals, as well, when all is said and done. Love these high-impact potential events and am rooting for you guys, even though I won't be there myself, this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 poundtown baby. STL gonna get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 yeah and as soon as a threat clears chi or det, 99% of the posters abandon the thread. give the kid a break. Some of us are tired of reading solely IMBY posts in every thread from him, it isn't just me being crabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Not to piss on the parade some are having, but most of the RAP and HRRR images people are posting are the composite reflectivity. So a lot of those impressive returns shown won't actually translate to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Yeah I totally agree, this is going to be some concrete, east coast backbreaker snow. Guess who volunteered to go on baby duty the next 2 nights? Model watching with little dude. Nice! My little girl is due in late June/ early July, so I will be able to hopefully stay up with her during our mega-Nina super winter next year... On topic, flipping across Chicago news broadcasts, they are starting to pound the storm/risk pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Last 6 runs of the HRRR centered on 8z tomorrow Even the HRRR trending stronger/west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Over 8" for Hoosier. 4km NAM. And 9.1" lollipop from the Lord over me. LolSent from my SM-N900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Stuff is going to be like wet paste/concrete and smattered to literally everything with these winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Leading band moving into Chicago metro by 8am tomorrow off the 23z HRRR. New product we have on our site...surface visibility that blue there is about 1SM or less in spots. Cool to see where the good snows are occuring Also wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I'm gonna go with 11" for Hoosier, 8" for Chambana, Alek's 5.5" call looking money (6"), and Geos 3". ChicagoWX in Kankakee should be good for 9" too IMO. Went 7-9" earlier but I'm increasingly liking the chances for double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 23z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Skilling mentioned earlier that this system will be pulling in lake moisture It seems delta T values are marginal, but ok! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Leading band moving into Chicago metro by 8am tomorrow off the 23z HRRR. New product we have on our site...surface visibility that blue there is about 1SM or less in spots. Cool to see where the good snows are occuring HRRRMW_sfc_vis_015.png Also wind gusts HRRRMW_sfc_gust_015.png Badass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Major storms always seem to push moisture further north than many expect, when the east coast had the blizzard a month ago the heaviest falls were in PA and NYC while MD was widely favored (they did almost as well). I think this one will set up heaviest bands from ORD south-southwest partly due to lake enhancement but with no lake still an 8" storm, the lake doubles the outcome within 40-50 miles. I do agree that there will be very sharp cutoffs on western edge of precip, RFD might get 4" and MLI 1-2' DBQ trace to 1" sort of a deal. Within Chicagoland, would expect heavier bands across south side and a second area hitting near Evanston and into north side, could be less in between. A third lake effect band will probably set up across Kenosha. Track of low likely to be NNE then ENE turning around 50 nw IND. Hey I hope you're right. You do have a point about the East Coast blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Badass! Digging the new avi. At least you're embracing it nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Still think it's humorous that GRR NWS still only has the metro area I live in as getting "2 to 5 inches" with a Winter Weather Advisory. Even after most models have shifted west. I guess they could still be right.... They love to wait until the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Not expecting anything more than a dense overcast and 30mph gusts here, so 1-2 feet would certainly be a surprise. Last time your said that was for the 1/9 storm - it looked hopeless, but you still got a dusting. @ Blackrock, I would x2 for your amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Digging the new avi. At least you're embracing it nicely lol! Poor guy. He truly has had some turd winters compared to many of the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Last time your said that was for the 1/9 storm - it looked hopeless, but you still got a dusting. @ Blackrock, I would x2 for your amounts. Way to be encouraging to him, Geos!!! bahaha Also, I agree with you on the snow amounts. They almost always lowball for this area. Almost always. Then after a storm has dumped on it, up the totals. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It's just SO close to being something nice. Very frustrating. Yeah, I know. I feel like best case scenario here would be a redeux of the November storm. Decent accumulations, but on the verge of something exceptional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Put on TWC and caught my local forecast...it has 8-12" during the day and 1-3" tomorrow night. Also said winds could gust over 50 mph. I know I've mentioned it more than once but it does remind me of 3/9/98 locally. Similar snows/winds. Tremendous impact with that one (it was poorly forecasted which didn't help). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilstormchaser Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Have not been paying that much attention to this storm over the last couple of days due to just about everyone in the family but the dog being sick. I am sort of surprised that ILX did not issue a winter weather advisory to the counties just NW of where the current warnings are. The 18z GFS and the hi res short term models are favoring areas along and just NW of I-57 for getting the best wind driven cement in the defo zone with this storm for IL which is further West than what they are currently thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Put on TWC and caught my local forecast...it has 8-12" during the day and 1-3" tomorrow night. Also said winds could gust over 50 mph. I know I've mentioned it more than once but it does remind me of 3/9/98 locally. Similar snows/winds. Tremendous impact with that one (it was poorly forecasted which didn't help). After reading your post, I just researched that storm. Seems like a reasonably good analog for your area. As I mentioned in my previous post, I'll be surprised if your area doesn't see blizzard-like conditions during the day tomorrow...and total snowfall in the 10-14" (12" mean) range. In other words, I like where you're positioned for this event. If I still had enough time to get there, I'd choose the Valparaiso area for my initial intercept location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nokywx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I know I've mentioned it more than once but it does remind me of 3/9/98 locally. Similar snows/winds. Tremendous impact with that one (it was poorly forecasted which didn't help). I definitely agree on that comparison. Was living in South Bend at the time. That was a late, late bloomer...forecast was for very little until 12 hours before the event. Definitely one of the more ferocious storms I remember, and I see some similarities, especially in terms of wind potential. A lot of damage on the lakefront with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Way to be encouraging to him, Geos!!! bahaha Also, I agree with you on the snow amounts. They almost always lowball for this area. Almost always. Then after a storm has dumped on it, up the totals. lol Would be something if a stray band made its way that far west and gave him enough to cover the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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