Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Potential major winter storm - Feb 24-25 PART II


snowstormcanuck

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Lurker here...

 

How is the Champaign-Urbana area looking?

You'll get different answers from other people, but my call would be 12"  near-blizzard conditions winds NNE 35-55 mph.

 

Sticking with my call for Chicago, look at the lake fetch and the hard push north of warm fronts east of central MI ... rippage will develop.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You'll get different answers from other people, but my call would be 12"  near-blizzard conditions winds NNE 35-55 mph.

 

Sticking with my call for Chicago, look at the lake fetch and the hard push north of warm fronts east of central MI ... rippage will develop.

Was your call 10-18 or something? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You'll get different answers from other people, but my call would be 12"  near-blizzard conditions winds NNE 35-55 mph.

 

Sticking with my call for Chicago, look at the lake fetch and the hard push north of warm fronts east of central MI ... rippage will develop.

Skilling mentioned earlier that this system will be pulling in lake moisture

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sticking with my call for Chicago, look at the lake fetch and the hard push north of warm fronts east of central MI ... rippage will develop.

There is not going to be any lake contribution other than perhaps some localized convergence owing to stronger winds over the lake than on land....and even then you're adding <<<1" to coastal areas. Lake-850 differentials are like 5 or 6C. meh

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Any chance evening office crews update to blizzard warning?

 

Wouldn't be surprised.  GFS showing pockets of 30kts at the surface tomorrow afternoon in the deform.  Much higher than that right off the deck.  With heavy precip, and potential gravity waves given such a dynamic storm I wouldn't be surprised to see some very strong gusts.  Even if they don't go with one it's going to be right on the cusp, which is gonna be pretty crazy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Major storms always seem to push moisture further north than many expect, when the east coast had the blizzard a month ago the heaviest falls were in PA and NYC while MD was widely favored (they did almost as well). I think this one will set up heaviest bands from ORD south-southwest partly due to lake enhancement but with no lake still an 8" storm, the lake doubles the outcome within 40-50 miles. I do agree that there will be very sharp cutoffs on western edge of precip, RFD might get 4" and MLI 1-2' DBQ trace to 1" sort of a deal.

 

Within Chicagoland, would expect heavier bands across south side and a second area hitting near Evanston and into north side, could be less in between. A third lake effect band will probably set up across Kenosha.

 

Track of low likely to be NNE then ENE turning around 50 nw IND.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Most of the progs that set up further west involve that f-gen band by expanding it and merging with the deformation precip shield later tonight and early tomorrow morning. If it peters out or stays weak, that's probably a sign that the eastern solutions are right.

 

And yes, it will help with low level saturation as it slogs its way east, provided it's still there come morning.

 

Awesome stuff - thanks!   :clap:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It would be close to a slam dunk if it were a powdery storm. Even if we don't see blizzard warnings, I think there's a pretty decent chance the criteria will be met in some spots.

Yeah I totally agree, this is going to be some concrete, east coast backbreaker snow. Guess who volunteered to go on baby duty the next 2 nights? Model watching with little dude.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Major storms always seem to push moisture further north than many expect, when the east coast had the blizzard a month ago the heaviest falls were in PA and NYC while MD was widely favored (they did almost as well). I think this one will set up heaviest bands from ORD south-southwest partly due to lake enhancement but with no lake still an 8" storm, the lake doubles the outcome within 40-50 miles. I do agree that there will be very sharp cutoffs on western edge of precip, RFD might get 4" and MLI 1-2' DBQ trace to 1" sort of a deal.

 

Within Chicagoland, would expect heavier bands across south side and a second area hitting near Evanston and into north side, could be less in between. A third lake effect band will probably set up across Kenosha.

 

Track of low likely to be NNE then ENE turning around 50 nw IND.

 

 

Not expecting anything more than a dense overcast and 30mph gusts here, so 1-2 feet would certainly be a surprise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Major storms always seem to push moisture further north than many expect, when the east coast had the blizzard a month ago the heaviest falls were in PA and NYC while MD was widely favored (they did almost as well). I think this one will set up heaviest bands from ORD south-southwest partly due to lake enhancement but with no lake still an 8" storm, the lake doubles the outcome within 40-50 miles. I do agree that there will be very sharp cutoffs on western edge of precip, RFD might get 4" and MLI 1-2' DBQ trace to 1" sort of a deal.

 

Within Chicagoland, would expect heavier bands across south side and a second area hitting near Evanston and into north side, could be less in between. A third lake effect band will probably set up across Kenosha.

 

Track of low likely to be NNE then ENE turning around 50 nw IND.

 

 

I just don't see what you're seeing as far as the lake.  Delta Ts are borderline (even taking more of a midlake temp to use for the differential)...could be a bit of enhancement downwind but wouldn't expect it to add a lot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...