snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 ORD-MBS folks can continue their snowstorm discussion here once the first thread reaches capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 NAM and EURO extremely consistent can't ignore those two. Semi still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 ORD-MBS folks can continue their snowstorm discussion here once the first thread reaches capacity. Add part 2 to this thread title. Got confused here. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 NAM and EURO extremely consistent can't ignore those two. Semi still in the game. It'll be interesting to see if the double E (ECMWF and ETA--now the NAM) rule wins over the other models. I think we will know come the 12z model suite as there should be full sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 YYZers really through in the towel there. We've seem a system or two pull SE this winter due to southern convection and this one may too given the strength of the low so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Not trying to needle you SEMI guys or be too much of an IMBY homer but i'd be skeptical of riding the NAM's eastern consistency when the 4km keeps running west/warmer (much more like the GEFS/SREF guidance) than the 32/12km. If you do some snooping around the mesoanlysis page I think you'll see why lending a little extra weight to the hi-res guidance isn't a bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Add part 2 to this thread title. Got confused here. Lol Well, it's in the subtitle but maybe it's not noticeable enough. One sec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 YYZers really through in the towel there. We've seem a system or two pull SE this winter due to southern convection and this one may too given the strength of the low so far south. Stebo agrees with you, but I think the rapid intensification of both the ul and sfc low is going to negate most of that. Very different animal than last week's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Stebo agrees with you, but I think the rapid intensification of both the ul and sfc low is going to negate most of that. Very different animal than last week's storm. From a synoptic standpoint, 12/28/15 was similar and convection also pulled the track a good 50 miles SE of what the models progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 From a synoptic standpoint, 12/28/15 was similar and convection also pulled the track a good 50 miles SE of what the models progged. I don't remember that storm intensifying as rapidly as this one is going to. This thing will be in the process of occluding by the time it reaches the OV it'll be deepening so fast. Who knows. Maybe I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Not trying to needle you SEMI guys or be too much of an IMBY homer but i'd be skeptical of riding the NAM's eastern consistency when the 4km keeps running west/warmer (much more like the GEFS/SREF guidance) than the 32/12km. If you do some snooping around the mesoanlysis page I think you'll see why lending a little extra weight to the hi-res guidance isn't a bad idea. It's a very tricky forecast. It can go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 SREF mean up to 6.5" at ORD with a much narrower spread but still enough gutter balls to give pause FWIW 12z RAP looks to be coming in a tad stronger at h5 than 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Well put alek..both sides of the fringes should be optimistic yet.. I'm going down in flames though with my Chicago is jackpot.. This storm just reaks for me to hug the NW guidance and then a tiny some.. Potential is big for Chicago but will it be tapped to full mug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 gonna guess 12z NAM will come west a bit based on the early h5 look EDIT: looks like a jump north with the 700 low as well 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Already can tell 12z NAM will come NW. Closed off sooner over OK/Red River by 6hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Morning everyone, Busy morning and on the fly, don't have time to model watch how're things looking? Seems things nudged NW a tad right? Woke up to a WSW with 6"+ potential, with locally higher near Danville and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 850mb low good deal north at 9hrs compared to 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Already can tell 12z NAM will come NW. Closed off sooner over OK/Red River by 6hrs The first frame moved the Low north 150 miles too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 850mb low good deal north at 9hrs compared to 6z run SLP ends up much weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 NAM steady Eddie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 NW Indiana gets smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Defo defintely more west in MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Defo defintely more west in MI Looked really good at first with that weaker slp but it made up for lost time late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Looked really good at first with that weaker slp but it made up for lost time late. It's Colder though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Once the NAM gets going it gets going all over South MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I wouldn't be surprised to see a dry slot forming for DTX region. Back side looks juicy on the NAM. Those thermals are so close here to the 850. I wonder how much of a mixing gradient there could be? From what I remember not much correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The 12Z NAM is way better for places West and East widespread 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 It's Colder though. Locally, it's warmer than the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 With regard to front-end precip...it looks on the low-res graphics that the 0c 850 isotherm blows past Toronto but the higher-res graphics I think are going to show the effect of dynamic/evaporational cooling on the column and keep it close for awhile tomorrow. Not sure if I believe it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Western cutoff, regardless of the model, is brutal. Rippage in Chicago to flurries out by me. In one of those positions where a small move of the low track will significantly change what's happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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