March 2016 temperature forecast contest

[Damage In Tolland]

He prob forgot. I'll message him.

Edit: he's out

Wow..did he say why? He's been a top notch forecaster here for years

[Rjay]

Wow..did he say why? He's been a top notch forecaster here for years

Nope. I didn't want to pry.

[Roger Smith]

The fourth update (after 14 days) continues to build up warmth to about the 18th when anomalies may peak above +9 at eastern sites, but after this a somewhat more volatile pattern is predicted ... the values after 31 days are based on the current GFS output now showing generally above normal temperatures prevailing in the east, closer to normal perhaps in ORD with greater variability, and continued warmth in the west. Uncertainty is high of course.

 

(note posted 16th _ no update to be posted for 15th but I will start a new post tomorrow and a countdown with values through today.)

 

_____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_____ (5d) ____ --0.6 _ --1.1 _ --1.9 ___ --5.4 _ --1.7 _ +5.1 ____+9.0 _+10.7 _ +6.5

____ (10d) ____ +6.5 _ +7.0 _ +4.4 ___ +5.8 _ +3.4 _ +5.7 ____ +7.2 _ +6.6 _ +4.4

____ (12d) ____ +7.9 _ +8.0 _ +5.3 ___ +6.4 _ +5.6 _ +5.7 ____ +8.2 _ +6.0 _ +3.8

____ (14d) ____ +7.7 _ +8.1 _ +6.1 ___ +6.9 _ +6.8 _ +6.2 ____ +8.5 _ +5.3 _ +3.0

 

___ (p21d) ____ +6.0 _ +7.0 _ +5.0 ___ +5.8 _ +5.5 _ +5.0 ____ +5.7 _ +4.7 _ +2.5

 

___ (p31d) ____ +6.0 _ +7.0 _ +5.5 ___ +6.3 _ +6.5 _ +5.5 ____ +6.0 _ +5.0 _ +3.0

____________________________________________________________________________

 

Re snowfall contest ... this will run until April 30th at least, subject to later revisions if Denver or (less likely) some other location get a May snowfall. The April snowfall average at DEN is 10 inches but the heaviest amounts are closer to 25 inches. So anything's still possible given the range of predictions and amounts left to be used up there and at Boston or Chicago which are capable of adding five inches in April although often less than one inch.

[Roger Smith]

Continued anomaly tracker with 12d and 14d edited out, you can see those in the previous post. This will be updated daily to end of month.

 

_____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_____ (5d) ____--0.6 _ --1.1 _ --1.9 ___ --5.4 _ --1.7 _ +5.1 ____+9.0 _+10.7 _ +6.5

____ (10d) ____ +6.5 _ +7.0 _ +4.4 ___ +5.8 _ +3.4 _ +5.7 ____ +7.2 _ +6.6 _ +4.4

____ (16d) ____ +8.2 _ +8.6 _ +6.0 ___ +7.7 _ +8.1 _ +6.5 ____ +7.3 _ +5.4 _ +2.5

____ (17d) ____ +8.5 _ +8.7 _ +6.6 ___ +7.8 _ +8.2 _ +6.6 ____ +6.2 _ +5.5 _ +2.2

____ (18d) ____ +8.6 _ +8.6 _ +6.5 ___ +7.5 _ +8.3 _ +6.7 ____ +5.0 _ +5.6 _ +2.6

____ (19d) ____ +8.1 _ +8.0 _ +6.0 ___ +7.2 _ +8.3 _ +6.2 ____ +4.0 _ +5.7 _ +2.9

____ (20d) ____ +7.3 _ +7.3 _ +5.3 ___ +6.7 _ +7.2 _ +5.3 ____ +3.7 _ +5.9 _ +2.9

____ (21d) ____ +6.8 _ +6.8 _ +4.9 ___ +6.3 _ +6.8 _ +4.3 ____ +4.3 _ +6.2 _ +3.0

____ (22d) ____ +6.5 _ +6.6 _ +4.7 ___ +6.5 _ +6.4 _ +3.7 ____ +4.7 _ +6.2 _ +3.0

____ (23d) ____ +6.9 _ +6.9 _ +5.0 ___ +6.2 _ +6.2 _ +3.8 ____ +3.9 _ +6.0 _ +2.9

____ (24d) ____ +7.2 _ +6.8 _ +4.8 ___ +5.7 _ +6.3 _ +3.5 ____ +3.0 _ +5.7 _ +2.7

____ (25d) ____ +7.3 _ +7.1 _ +4.6 ___ +5.3 _ +6.4 _ +3.0 ____ +2.5 _ +5.5 _ +2.7

____ (26d) ____ +7.2 _ +6.8 _ +4.4 ___ +5.2 _ +6.3 _ +2.7 ____ +1.9 _ +5.5 _ +2.7

____ (27d) ____ +6.9 _ +6.7 _ +4.1 ___ +5.2 _ +6.3 _ +2.7 ____ +1.6 _ +5.5 _ +2.5

____ (28d) ____ +7.0 _ +6.6 _ +4.0 ___ +5.1 _ +6.3 _ +2.5 ____ +1.6 _ +5.4 _ +2.4

____ (29d) ____ +6.8 _ +6.4 _ +3.9 ___ +5.0 _ +6.1 _ +2.3 ____ +1.7 _ +5.1 _ +2.4

____ (30d) ____ +6.6 _ +6.2 _ +3.9 ___ +5.2 _ +6.0 _ +2.5 ____ +1.5 _ +4.7 _ +2.6

 

____ (31d) ____ +6.7 _ +6.4 _ +4.2 ___ +5.4 _ +6.2 _ +2.7 ____ +1.2 _ +4.3 _ +2.9

 

Confirmed final anomalies in red, scoring is more or less complete for this month (they just need a cross-check against the excel file) but the annual tables are not yet updated. Check back after 3 p.m., all should be done by then.

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for March 2016

 

 

FORECASTER ________DCA_NYC_BOS___east____ORD_ATL_IAH____cent____ TOTAL

 

Maxim ________________ 73 _ 76 _ 96 ____ 245 ____ 96 _ 48 _ 96 ____ 240 _____ 485

Damage in Tolland _______83 _ 76 _ 94 ____ 253 ____ 94 _ 44 _ 86 ____ 224 _____ 477

BKViking _______________67 _ 74 _ 90 ____ 231 ____ 99 _ 46 _ 88 ____ 233 _____ 464

DonSutherland.1 ________ 75 _ 87 _ 86 ____ 248 ____ 97 _ 32 _ 86 ____ 205 _____ 463

blazess556 _____________73 _ 74 _ 94 ____ 241 ____ 60 _ 58 _ 96 ____ 214 _____ 455

Stebo _________________ 69 _ 70 _ 90 ____ 229 ____ 56 _ 54 _100____ 210 _____ 439

 

OHweather _____________53 _ 66 _ 92 ____ 211 ____ 86 _ 38 _ 86 ____ 210 _ 421

______________(-6%) ___ 50 _ 62 _ 86 ____ 198 ____ 81 _ 36 _ 81 ____ 198 _____ 396

Rjay __________________ 63 _ 76 _ 94 ____ 233 ____ 66 _ 38 _ 46 ____ 150 _____ 383

snow88 ________________39 _ 82 _ 90 ____ 211 ____ 72 _ 24 _ 74 ____ 170 _____ 381

Midlo Snow Maker _______ 71 _ 64 _ 76 ____ 211 ____ 56 _ 28 _ 84 ____ 168 _____ 379

Mallow ________________ 39 _ 52 _ 90 ____ 181 ____ 86 _ 32 _ 80 ____ 198 _____ 379

 

Consensus _____________41 _ 52 _ 76 ____ 169 ____ 58 _ 30 _ 80 ____ 168 _____ 337

 

Roger Smith ____________33 _ 40 _ 66 ____ 139 ____ 32 _ 48 _100 ____ 180 _____ 319

wxallannj _______________41 _ 60 _ 70 ____ 171 ____ 42 _ 26 _ 74 ____ 142 _____ 313

debeaches _____________ 53 _ 56 _ 86 ____ 195 ____ 58 _ 12 _ 46 ____ 116 _____ 311

H2O_Town__Wx ________ 47 _ 48 _ 64 ____ 159 ____ 62 _ 38 _ 80 ____ 180 _ 339

_______________ (-10%) _ 42 _ 43 _ 58 ____ 143 ____ 56 _ 34 _ 72 ____ 162 _____ 305

Rodney S ______________ 41 _ 28 _ 62 ____ 131 ____ 54 _ 20 _ 94 ____ 168 _____ 299

hudsonvalley21 __________27 _ 34 _ 70 ____ 131 ____ 60 _ 28 _ 78 ____ 166 _____ 297

wxdude64 ______________33 _ 30 _ 60 ____ 123 ____ 34 _ 14 _ 72 ____ 120 _____ 243

 

Tenman Johnson ________23 _ 36 _ 76 ____ 135 ____ 16 _ 10 _ 66 ____ 092 _____ 227

SD ___________________ 23 _ 10 _ 36 ____ 069 ____ 16 _ 18 _ 66 ____ 100 _____ 169

rcontinelli ______________ 09 _ 00 _ 62 ____ 071 ____ 16 _ 16 _ 56 ____ 088 _____ 159

dmillz25 _______________ 00 _ 10 _ 46 ____ 056 ____ 26 _ 00 _ 66 ____ 092 _____ 148

Tom __________________ 21 _ 16 _ 44 ____ 081 ____ 14 _ 00 _ 38 ____ 052 _____ 133

ksammut _______________11 _ 07 _ 26 ____ 044 ____ 03 _ 10 _ 46 ____ 059 _____ 103

 

Normal ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 16 ____ 016 ____ 00 _ 00 _ 46 ____ 046 _____ 062

 

______________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

Final scoring for western contest

 

 

FORECASTER _________DEN_PHX_SEA _____ TOTAL ____ all nine (=rank)

 

Midlo Snow Maker ______ 44 _ 86 _ 98 _______ 228 ________ 607 (= 5)

Roger Smith ___________ 34 _ 96 _ 88 _______ 218 ________ 537 (= 7)

snow88 ______________100 _ 34 _ 80 _______ 214 ________ 595 (= 6)

wxallannj ______________86 _ 42 _ 76 _______ 204 ________ 517 (= 9)

ksammut ______________ 98 _ 38 _ 62 _______ 198 ________ 301 (=19)

 

Consensus _____________98 _ 34 _ 62 _______ 194 ________ 531 (= 9)

 

Rodney S _____________ 78 _ 40 _ 72 _______ 190 ________ 489 (=12)

hudsonvalley21 _________92 _ 34 _ 64 _______ 190 ________ 487 (=13)

Damage in Tolland ______ 66 _ 48 _ 72 _______ 186 ________ 663 (= 2)

Maxim ________________ 64 _ 34 _ 82 _______ 180 ________ 665 (= 1)

DonSutherland.1 ________50 _ 36 _ 88 _______ 174 ________ 637 (= 3)

BKViking ______________74 _ 34 _ 62 _______ 170 ________ 634 (= 4)

Mallow ________________34 _ 50 _ 72 _______ 156 ________ 535 (= 8)

 

wxdude64 ______________72 _ 04 _ 56 _______ 132 ________ 375 (=18)

Rjay __________________ 76 _ 14 _ 42 _______ 132 ________ 515 (=10)

debeaches _____________ 54 _ 00 _ 72 _______ 126 ________ 437 (=16)

 

Normal ________________76 _ 14 _ 42 _______ 132 ________ 194 (=25)

 

rcontinelli ______________ 56 _ 00 _ 54 _______ 110 ________ 269 (=20)

Tom __________________ 58 _ 08 _ 56 _______ 122 ________ 255 (=22)

dmillz25 _______________ 50 _ 00 _ 62 _______ 112 ________ 260 (=21)

H2O_Town__Wx ________ 44 _ 32 _ 48 __ 124

______________ (-10%) __ 40 _ 29 _ 43 _______ 112 ________ 417 (=17)

SD ____________________56 _ 00 _ 22 _______ 078 ________ 247 (=24)

OHweather _____________46 _ 00 _ 32 __ 078

______________ (-6%) ___ 43 _ 00 _ 30 _______ 073 ________ 469 (=14)

blazess556 _____________ 14 _ 00 _ 22 _______ 036 ________ 491 (=11)

Stebo __________________10 _ 00 _ 18 _______ 028 ________ 467 (=15)

Tenman Johnson ________ 26 _ 00 _ 00 _______ 026 ________ 253 (=23)

______________________________________________________________

[Roger Smith]

--- --- --- <<< Updated Annual Scoring (Jan - Mar 2016) >>> --- --- ---

 

 

Note that starting this year, the former "classic" three are labelled eastern and the former "expanded" three are labelled central. This brings them into better relation to the western three. Contests will continue to be separated out by the combined eastern-central and the western. Best scores are explained at bottom of table.

 

 

FORECASTER _______ DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH___cent___ TOTAL ___ Best scores

 

01 Midlo Snow Maker __223 _ 220 _ 214 __ 657 ___ 202 _ 200 _ 190 __ 592 ___ 1249 ____ 011010 . 1 . 0 __ Feb

02 blazess556 _______ 221 _ 228 _ 208 __ 657 ___ 150 _ 226 _ 208 __ 584 ___ 1241 ____ 000011 . 0 . 0

 

03 BKviking __________207 _ 236 _ 186 __ 629 ___ 239 _ 190 _ 182 __ 611 ___ 1240 ____ 000200 . 0 . 1 __ Jan

04 DonSutherland.1 ___ 241 _ 215 _ 184 __ 640 ___ 213 _ 186 _ 180 __ 579 ___ 1219 ____ 010010 . 1 . 0

05 Damage in Tolland __255 _ 198 _ 154 __ 607 ___ 182 _ 200 _ 186 __ 568 ___ 1175 ____ 100000 . 0 . 0

 

06 Rjay _____________ 259 _ 180 _ 154 __ 593 ___ 184 _ 180 _ 156 __ 520 ___ 1113 ____ 100000 . 0 . 0

07 hudsonvalley21 ____ 195 _ 178 _ 168 __ 541 ___ 230 _ 158 _ 180 __ 568 ___ 1109 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

08 Mallow ___________ 159 _ 206 _ 220 __ 585 ___ 200 _ 130 _ 192 __ 522 ___ 1107 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

 

09 Consensus ________219 _ 178 _ 154 __ 551 ___ 162 _ 182 _ 190 __ 534 ___ 1085 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

 

09 wxallannj _________ 163 _ 192 _ 166 __ 521 ___ 166 _ 176 _ 218 __ 560 ___ 1081 ____ 010100 . 0 . 0

10 Stebo ____________215 _ 162 _ 148 __ 525 ___ 146 _ 182 _ 220 __ 548 ___ 1073 ____ 000001 . 0 . 1

 

11 wxdude64 ________ 205 _ 172 _ 164 __ 541 ___ 148 _ 186 _ 188 __ 522 ___ 1063 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

12 RodneyS _________ 229 _ 144 _ 144 __ 517 ___ 152 _ 172 _ 218 __ 542 ___ 1059 ____ 100000 . 0 . 1

13 Maxim ___________ 135 _ 166 _ 246 __ 547 ___ 120 _ 144 _ 180 __ 444 ____ 991 ____ 002000 . 0 . 1__Mar

14 OHWeather _______ 170 _ 182 _ 170 __ 522 ___ 139 _ 164 _ 161 __ 464 ____ 986 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

15 dmillz25 __________ 192 _ 124 _ 120 __ 436 ___ 168 _ 142 _ 160 __ 470 ____ 906 ____ 100100 . 0 . 0

 

16 SD ______________ 169 _ 164 _ 126 __ 459 ___ 124 _ 154 _ 168 __ 446 ____ 905 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

17 Roger Smith _______173 _ 104 __ 92 __ 369 ___ 104 _ 194 _ 198 __ 496 ____ 865 ____ 100001 . 0 . 0

 

18 Normal ___________ 160 _ 114 __ 86 __ 360 ___ 128 _ 156 _ 178 __ 462 ____ 822 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

 

18 H2OTown_Wx_____ 176 __ 98 __ 78 __ 352 ___ 136 _ 164 _ 168 __ 468 ____ 820 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

19 ksammut _________ 199 _ 139 _ 112 __ 450 ____ 77 _ 146 _ 142 __ 365 ____ 815 ____ 100000 . 0 . 0

20 Tenman Johnson ___183 _ 110 _ 126 __ 419 ____ 84 _ 142 _ 166 __ 392 ____ 811 ____ 100000 . 0 . 0

 

21 debeaches ________141 _ 160 _ 176 __ 477 ___ 118 __ 64 _ 138 __ 320 ____ 797 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

22 Tom _____________ 151 __ 80 __ 86 __ 317 ____ 60 __ 94 _ 134 __ 288 ____ 605 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

23 Isotherm* _________ 132 __ 50 __ 20 __ 202 ____ 62 _ 132 __ 94 __ 288 ____ 490 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

24 nzucker** __________ 66 __ 90 __ 70 __ 226 ____ 62 __ 92 __ 73 __ 227 ____ 453 ____ 000000 . 1 . 0

25 Daniel Boone**______ 96 __ 38 __ 20 __ 154 ____ 78 __ 86 __ 72 __ 236 ____ 390 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

26 snowweenie**_______ 60 __ 86 __ 10 __ 156 ____ 32 __ 98 __ 96 __ 226 ____ 382 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

27 snow88** ___________39 __ 82 __ 90 __ 211 ____ 72 __ 24 __ 74 __ 170 ____ 381 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

28 snoski14**__________ 86 __ 36 __ 10 __ 132 ____ 64 __ 78 __ 64 __ 206 ____ 338 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

29 rcontinelli** _________ 09 __ 00 __ 62 __ 071 ____ 16 __ 16 __ 56 __ 088 ____ 159 ____ 000000 . 0 . 0

____________________________________________________________

 

(best score code -- first six numbers refer to six stations, next two numbers are high scores for eastern and central three, then letters for months)

 

* missed one month (March)

** missed two months (Feb-Mar for 24-26 and 28, Jan-Feb for 27,29).

[Roger Smith]

Updated Annual Scoring (Jan - Mar 2016) for western and for all nine contests

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTALS ___ best scores _____ All Nine Totals __ best scores

 

01 Damage in Tolland _____ 185 _ 128 _ 228 _____ 541 ________ 0 0 0 ________1716 (= 3) 

02 Midlo Snow Maker______ 155 _ 167 _ 210 _____ 532 ________ 1 0 1 _ Mar ___1781 (= 1) ___ FEB

03 wxallannj _____________140 _ 156 _ 224 _____ 520 ________ 0 0 1 ________ 1601 (= 5)

 

04 Consensus ___________ 170 _ 128 _ 212 _____ 510 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 1595 (= 6)

 

04 BKViking _____________ 159 _ 106 _ 224 _____ 489 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 1729 (= 2)

05 DonSutherland.1 _______136 _ 106 _ 236 _____ 478 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 1697 (= 4)

06 hudsonvalley21 ________165 _ 130 _ 174 _____ 469 ________ 0 1 0 ________ 1578 (= 6)

07 Mallow _______________122 _ 121 _ 218 _____ 461 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 1568 (= 7)

08 wxdude64 ____________ 150 __ 96 _ 204 _____ 450 ________ 0 0 1 _ Jan ___ 1513 (=10) ___ JAN

09 Rjay _________________154 _ 108 _ 186 _____ 448 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 1561 (= 8)

10 Maxim _______________102 _ 108 _ 236 _____ 446 ________ 0 0 0 _________1437 (=11) ___ MAR

 

11 dmillz25 ______________143 __ 66 _ 226 _____ 435 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 1341 (=14)

12 Tom _________________121 _ 105 _ 186 _____ 412 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 1017 (=22)

13 debeaches ____________138 __ 66 _ 204 _____ 408 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 1205 (=19)

14 H2OTown_Wx _________135 __ 97 _ 175 _____ 407 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 1227 (=18)

15 Roger Smith ___________ 72 _ 180 _ 144 _____ 396 ________ 0 1 0 ________ 1261 (=16)

 

16 Normal _______________154 _ 100 _ 128 _____ 382 ________ 0 0 0 _________1204 (=19)

 

16 OHweather ____________ 61 __ 99 _ 194 _____ 354 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 1340 (=15)

17 Tenman Johnson _______121 _ 124 _ 106 _____ 351 ________1 1 0 _ Feb ___ 1162 (=20)

18 SD __________________104 __ 94 _ 148 _____ 346 ________ 0 0 0 _________1251 (=17)

19 RodneyS ______________ 78 __ 74 _ 170 _____ 322 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 1381 (=12)

20 ksammut _____________ 116 __ 92 _ 100 _____ 308 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 1123 (=21)

21 Isotherm* ______________52 __ 94 _ 150 _____ 296 ________ 0 0 0 _________ 786 (=23)

22 stebo _________________ 83 __ 92 _ 114 _____ 289 ________ 0 0 0 ________ 1362 (=13)

23 blazess556 ____________ 36 __ 90 _ 158 _____ 284 ________ 0 0 0 _________1525 (= 9)

24 snoski14**_____________ 88 __ 96 __ 86 _____ 270 ________ 0 1 0 _ Jan _____608 (=27)

25 snowweenie**___________92 __ 70 __ 94 _____ 256 ________ 0 0 0 _________ 638 (=26)

26 Daniel Boone**__________70 __ 92 __ 90 _____ 252 ________ 0 0 0 _________ 642 (=25)

27 nzucker**______________ 90 __ 68 __ 49 _____ 207 ________ 0 0 0 _________ 660 (=24)

28 snow88**_____________ 100 __ 34 __ 80 _____ 214 ________ 1 0 0 _________ 595 (=28)

29 rcontinelli**_____________ 56__ 00 __ 54 _____ 110 ________ 0 0 0 _________ 269 (=29)

_______________________________________________________________________

 

* missed one month (March)

** missed two months (Feb-Mar for 23 and 25-27, Jan-Feb for 28-29).

best scores for the three stations, months in red ... and best scores for all nine shown for each month in green.

[Roger Smith]

Extreme Forecast Summary

 

 

These March results are now merged with data from Jan-Feb as the March stats are fully resolved.

Meanwhile, slight reductions in final values removed BOS, ORD and IAH which were all just 0.1 lower than required for second highest forecast to win high score (instead it was third highest forecast values with high score for these three locations, so they did not qualify).

 

 

 

 Month __ Loc'n ____ Anomaly ____ Extreme fcst ___ 2nd most extreme ___ W-L decision

 

Jan ___ NYC ________ +1.9 _______ +4.5 Maxim ____ +2.0 wxallannj _____ W wxallannj L Maxim

Jan ___ BOS ________ +3.5 _______ +4.0 Maxim ____ +2.2 _____________ W (Maxim)

 

Feb ___ NYC ________ +2.4 _______ +3.5 debeaches _ +1.5 Midlo _______ W Midlo, L debeaches

Feb ___ BOS ________ +3.0 _______ +4.2 debeaches _ +2.1 Midlo _______ W Midlo, L debeaches

Feb ___ ORD ________ +2.7 _______ +2.0 dmillz25 ___ +1.6 ____________ W dmillz25

Feb ___ ATL _________+1.3 _______ +4.2 debeaches _ +1.0 Midlo _______ W Midlo, L debeaches

Feb ___ IAH _________ +2.7 _______ +2.1 RodneyS ___ +0.4 ___________ W RodneyS

Feb ___ DEN ________ +5.3 _______ +2.0 Tenman J ___+1.5 ___________ W Tenman Johnson

Feb ___ PHX ________ +6.0 _______ +2.0 Tenman J ___+1.2 ___________ W Tenman Johnson

Feb ___ SEA ________ +4.0 _______ +2.6 wxallannj ___ +2.5 ___________ W wxallannj

 

Mar ___ DCA ________ +6.7 _______ +5.0 Damage ____ +4.6 ___________W for Damage

Mar ___ NYC ________ +6.4 _______ +5.1 Don S ______ +4.6 ___________W for DonS

Mar ___ ATL _________+6.2 _______ +3.5 Blazes ______+3.3 __________ W for Blazes

Mar ___ PHX ________ +4.3 ________+5.0 (Midlo) _____ +4.5 Roger _____ W for Roger, L for Midlo

Mar ___ SEA ________ +2.9 ________+3.0 Midlo _______+2.3 __________ W for Midlo

 

 

 

Updated forecaster records in extreme forecasts

 

Midlo Snow Maker ____4-1

wxallannj ___________ 2-0

Tenman Johnson _____2-0

RodneyS ___________ 1-0

dmillz25 ____________ 1-0

Damage in Tolland ___ 1-0

DonSutherland.1 _____ 1-0

Blazess556 _________ 1-0

Roger Smith ________ 1-0

Maxim _____________ 1-1

debeaches __________ 0-3 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

All scoring is updated. We have a very close race with the top three separated by only nine points in the main contest, and not a large spread all the way down to fifth place at this point. (I think people still think of it that way, the all-nine is really the main contest now, and in that one, Midlo Snow Maker leads by 52 points).

 

By the way, I never commented on Isotherm's withdrawal which we all regret, hoping I did not inadvertently cause this to happen -- we had a chat about how February was going around the 20th of that month, and I posted some numbers which were the basis of the chat so anyone reading it could see what we were actually discussing, the tables get edited day after day and these numbers disappear into cyber-oblivion otherwise. I have a hunch that it was just a combination of other factors and not this discussion, partly because I had pretty much the same (doomed) forecast at that point -- anyway we soldier on (most of us, tick tock).

[Roger Smith]

If anyone's wondering about the snowfall contest, I have reposted the table in the April contest thread, which is where it will receive further updates. I have found the post in this thread to be very susceptible to partial or even total disappearance issues when I try to edit it (after securely copying it) so I don't want to edit this notice into that post.

 

The snowfall contest looks like it could have a really interesting finish, check it out over in April. Right now the clubhouse leader is a fine fellow we all know, Consensus. But right behind him is Maxim. The math makes it appear that Mallow is the most serious challenger at this point. But enough snow in the right places and some people who are now far behind could catch up. The way things are going, that might not be out of the question. Denver can see heavy snow even in May. I would imagine the other northern stations will be done by the last week of April but you never know. In my Toronto records I notice that there was 3.1" of snow on May 1st, 1875. And then there was June 1816 ...