Roger Smith Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 With February being such a short month, I have gone a bit early with the call for forecasts for March. As always, predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Entries are due by 06z Tuesday 1st of March. Late entries will then receive 1% penalties per 2h late to 18z Wed 2nd, and after that a further 1% per 1h late to the expiry of the contest entry period on the 6th. Good luck (I need it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 DCA +4.3 NYC +4.2 BOS +3.7 ORD +3.0 ATL +3.3 IAH +2.7 DEN -3.3 PHX -2.2 SEA -1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 DCA: +1.9 NYC: +1.5 BOS: +1.4 ORD: +0.9 ATL: -0.5 IAH: -0.4 DEN: -0.9 PHX : -0.3 SEA: +0.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 DCA: -0.5 NYC: +1.0 BOS: +1.5 ORD: +1.5 ATL: -0.5 IAH: +1.0 DEN: -1.3 PHX : -1.0 SEA: +1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcontinelli Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 DCA: +0.9NYC: -0.6BOS: +2.3ORD: +1.0ATL: +1.4IAH: +0.5DEN: +3.4PHX : -1.2SEA: +0.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 DCA: +4.0 NYC: +4.5 BOS: +4.5 ORD: +3.5 ATL: +2.5 IAH: 0.0 DEN: 0.0 PHX: 0.0 SEA: 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 DCA: +4.5 NYC: +4.5 BOS: +4.0 ORD: +5.0 ATL: +3.0 IAH: +2.5 DEN: +3.0 PHX: +1.0 SEA: +2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 DCA: +5.0 NYC: +4.5BOS: +3.9ORD: +6.0ATL: +2.8IAH: +2.0DEN: +2.9PHX: +1.7SEA: +1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 DCA: +2.2 NYC: +2.4BOS: +2.7ORD: +3.2ATL: + 2.0IAH: +1.6DEN: +1.6PHX: +1.0SEA: +1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 DCA +3.5 NYC +3.5 BOS +3.5 ORD +3.1 ATL + 1.2 IAH even DEN -1.1 PHX -1.4 SEA +1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 DCA: +2.9NYC: +3.7BOS: +2.7ORD: +2.3ATL: +1.9IAH: +1.4DEN: +1.9PHX: +1.4SEA: +1.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ______ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA +4.6 __ +5.1 __ +4.9 ______ +5.7 __ +2.2 __ +2.0 ______ +3.7 _ +1.1 __ +2.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 DCA: +2.8NYC: +4.8BOS: +3.7ORD: +3.8ATL: +1.8IAH: +1.4DEN: +1.2PHX: +1.0SEA: +1.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksammut Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.1___+.07__+.05__+.03__+1__0_______+1.3__+1.2____+1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ______ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA +2.8 __ +3.3 _ +3.7 _____ +4.5 __ +2.2 __ +1.7 _____ +4.5 __ +1.8 _ +1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 DCA: +4.2 NYC: +4.4 BOS: +3.7 ORD: +5.3 ATL: +2.9 IAH: +2.1 DEN: +2.5 PHX: +1.0 SEA: +1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 DCA - +2.5 NYC - +2.2 BOS - +2.2 ORD - +1.9 ATL - +1.3 IAH - +1.3 DEN - -0.2 PHX - -0.5 SEA - +0.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 With February being such a short month, I have gone a bit early with the call for forecasts for March. As always, predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Entries are due by 06z Tuesday 1st of March. Late entries will then receive 1% penalties per 2h late to 18z Wed 2nd, and after that a further 1% per 1h late to the expiry of the contest entry period on the 6th. Dca +2 NYC +2.5 Bos +3 Ord +1 Atl +1 Houston +1 All westerns -2.5 Good luck (I need it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 DCA __ NYC __ BOS ______ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ______ DEN __ PHX __ SEA +2.9 __ +2.1 __+2.3 _____ +2.9 __+1.6 __+3.0 ______+2.3 _ +1.3 __ +1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 DCA - +4.4 NYC - +3.9 BOS - +3.0 ORD - +3.0 ATL - +2.0 IAH - +1.9 DEN - +4.0 PHX - + 5.0 SEA - +3.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 +2.5 _ +2.7 _ +2.5 ___ +1.8 _ +3.0 _ +2.7 ____ +4.5 _ +4.5 _ +2.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 Table of Forecasts for March 2016 posting to save the work, deadline is 06z, will add anyone who posts after this along with Consensus ... if you edit before 06z which you can do, kindly note the edit in your post although I will make a later sweep of the posts to see if these numbers are your final values. FORECASTER _________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Damage in Tolland _______+5.0 _ +4.5 _ +3.9 ___ +6.0 _ +2.8 _ +2.0 ____ +2.9 _ +1.7 _ +1.5 DonSutherland.1 ________ +4.6 _ +5.1 _ +4.9 ___ +5.7 _ +2.2 _ +2.0 ____ +3.7 _ +1.1 _ +2.3 Maxim ________________ +4.5 _ +4.5 _ +4.0 ___ +5.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 ____ +3.0 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 blazess556 _____________+4.5 _ +4.4 _ +3.9 ___ +3.2 _ +3.5 _ +2.9 ____ --3.1 _ --2.0 _ --1.0 Midlo Snow Maker _______ +4.4 _ +3.9 _ +3.0 ___ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.9 ____ +4.0 _ +5.0 _ +3.0 Stebo _________________ +4.3 _ +4.2 _ +3.7 ___ +3.0 _ +3.3 _ +2.7 ____ --3.3 _ --2.2 _ --1.2 BKViking _______________+4.2 _ +4.4 _ +3.7 ___ +5.3 _ +2.9 _ +2.1 ____ +2.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 Rjay __________________ +4.0 _ +4.5 _ +4.5 ___ +3.5 _ +2.5 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 OHweather _____ (-6%) __ +3.5 _ +4.0 _ +3.8 ___ +4.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.0 ____ --1.5 _ --1.0 _ --0.5 debeaches _____________ +3.5 _ +3.5 _ +3.5 ___ +3.1 _ +1.2 __ 0.0 ____ --1.1 _ --1.4 _ +1.5 H2O_Town__Wx _ (-10%) _ +3.2 _ +3.1 _ +2.4 ___ +3.3 _ +2.5 _ +1.7 ____ --1.6 _ +0.9 _ +0.3 wxallannj _______________+2.9 _ +3.7 _ +2.7 ___ +2.3 _ +1.9 _ +1.4 ____ +1.9 _ +1.4 _ +1.7 Consensus _____________ +2.9 _ +3.3 _ +3.0 ___ +3.1 _ +2.1 _ +1.7 ____ +1.3 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 Rodney S ______________ +2.9 _ +2.1 _+2.3 ___ +2.9 _ +1.6 _ +3.0 ____ +2.3 _ +1.3 _ +1.5 snow88 ________________+2.8 _ +4.8 _ +3.7 ___ +3.8 _ +1.8 _ +1.4 ____ +1.2 _ +1.0 _ +1.9 Mallow ________________ +2.8 _ +3.3 _ +3.7 ___ +4.5 _ +2.2 _ +1.7 ____ +4.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.5 Roger Smith ____________ +2.5 _ +2.7 _ +2.5 ___ +1.8 _ +3.0 _ +2.7 ____ +4.5 _ +4.5 _ +2.3 wxdude64 ______________ +2.5 _ +2.2 _ +2.2 ___ +1.9 _ +1.3 _ +1.3 ____ --0.2 _ --0.5 _ +0.7 hudsonvalley21 __________+2.2 _ +2.4 _ +2.7 ___ +3.2 _ +2.0 _ +1.6 ____ +1.6 _ +1.0 _ +1.1 Tenman Johnson ________ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +3.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ____ --2.5 _ --2.5 _ --2.5 SD ____________________+2.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 ____ --1.0 _ --1.5 _ --1.0 Tom __________________ +1.9 _ +1.5 _ +1.4 ___ +0.9 _ --0.5 _ --0.4 ____ --0.9 _ --0.3 _ +0.7 ksammut _______________+1.1 _ +0.7 _ +0.5 ___ +0.3 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 ____ +1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 rcontinelli ______________ +0.9 _ --0.6 _ +2.3 ___ +1.0 _ +1.4 _ +0.5 ____ +3.4 _ --1.2 _ +0.6 Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 dmillz25 _______________ --0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +1.5 _ --0.5 _ +1.0 ____ --1.3 _ --1.0 _ +1.0 ______________________________________________________________ Well, for the time being I have set consensus for 24 forecasts at mean of 12th and 13th ranked. Hoping that Isotherm gets the memo and isn't "under the weather" (can remember times in my youth when I had a week or two in bed with flu around this time of year, I missed most of Feb 93 that way). Warmest and coldest forecasts are highlighted with red and blue above. And welcome to Rcontinelli as well as returnee snow88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 DCA +4.5 NYC +4.4 BOS +3.9 ORD +3.2 ATL +3.5 IAH +2.9 DEN -3.1 PHX -2.0 SEA -1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 DCA +3.5 NYC +4.0 BOS +3.8 ORD +4.5 ATL +2.5 IAH +2.0 DEN -1.5 PHX -1.0 SEA -0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Wonder why Isotherm didn't do this for Morch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Wonder why Isotherm didn't do this for Morch?He prob forgot. I'll message him.Edit: he's out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I was surprised so many people seem so confident in a huge turnaround in Denver. Looks like a very warm start, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 NYC...BOS...DCA ... ...IAH...ATL...ORD... ...DEN...PHX...SEA +3.1...+2.4...+3.2... ....+1.7...+2.5...+3.3... ...-1.6...+0.9...+0.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 Snowfall Contest Table 2, sum of errors -- continued from February This table takes the data from the original table posted in the January contest thread, and converts it to current errors or differences between your forecasts and the totals to date. Errors in red show underpredictions that can only increase whereas other (over-predictions at present) errors can only decrease. This table is continued from the similar table started in the January thread which will be not be maintained now that updates are being posted here. The actual forecasts can be seen in another table in the January thread. This table shows only errors to date. Forecasters are now placed in order of total error to date ... watch for updates. Updated snowfalls _____ 22.2 __ 32.1 __ 29.5 ___ 30.1 __ 0.3 __ 0.0 ___ 57.2 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 (Tr) FORECASTER _______ DCA __ NYC __ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ TOTAL error Maxim _______________ 3.2" __ 7.1" __ 5.5" ___ 1.1" _ 2.2" _ 0.5" ____ 2.8" _ 0.0" _ 7.0" ____ 29.4 (11.4)blazess556 ___________ 5.2" __ 9.1" __ 3.5" ___ 3.1" _ 1.9" _ 0.3" ____ 1.2" _ 0.0" _ 6.0" ____ 30.3 (18.6) .. Consensus ___________ 1.4" __ 7.9" __ 9.3" ___ 2.0" _ 3.7" _ 0.5" ____ 0.5" _ 0.0" _ 5.6" ____ 30.9 (11.3).. hudsonvalley21________ 1.1" _ 11.3" __ 1.6" ___ 2.9" _ 1.6" _ 0.0" ___ 11.8" _ 0.0" _ 2.9" ____ 32.6 (26.5) wxallannj _____________6.5" __ 9.7" __ 2.0" ___ 1.9" _ 1.1" _ 0.0" ____ 9.2" _ 0.0" _ 7.8" ____ 38.2 (27.4) Mallow _______________3.8" __ 2.1" _ 11.5" ___ 2.1" _ 4.5" _ 0.4" ___ 10.8" _ 0.0" _ 4.2" ____ 39.4 (4.2) Roger Smith _________ 10.5" _ 13.6" __ 6.0" ___ 2.1" _ 0.0" _ 0.2" ____ 1.2" _ 0.0" _ 6.0" ____ 39.6 (27.4) Midlo Snow Maker _____ 1.2" __ 1.9" _ 19.5" ___ 7.9" _ 4.7" _ 1.9" ____ 1.2" _ 0.0" _ 5.6" ____ 43.9 (2.4) Isotherm ____________ 10.0" __ 5.3" _ 14.1" ___ 7.7" _ 3.2" _ 0.1" ____ 0.1" _ 0.0" _ 4.3" ____ 44.8 (7.8) ksammut _____________7.7" _ 11.1" _ 12.5" ___ 7.9" _ 0.2" _ 0.0" ____ 1.8" _ 0.0" _ 4.0" ____ 45.2 (19.0) DonSutherland.1 _______2.8" __ 8.7" __ 7.0" ___ 4.6" _ 3.6" _ 0.1" ___ 14.9" _ 0.0" _ 4.5" ____ 46.2 (28.2) Normal 1981-2010 ______6.8" __ 6.3" _ 14.3" ___ 6.2" _ 2.6" _ 0.1" ____ 3.4" _ 0.0" _ 6.8" ____ 46.5 (16.5) wxdude64 ____________ 0.2" __ 9.4" __ 1.3" ___ 6.5"_10.9" _ 2.1" ___ 10.1" _ 0.0" _ 8.4" ____ 48.9 (16.1) OHweather ___________12.8" __ 4.9" _ 16.5" ___ 0.9" _ 4.2" _ 0.0" ____ 7.8" _ 0.0" _ 4.0" ____ 51.1 H2O_Town_Wx ________ 4.9" __ 3.7" __ 3.7" __ 13.0" _ 9.3" _ 3.3" ___ 13.2" _ 0.0" _ 3.7" ____ 54.8 (21.8) Damage in Tolland _____14.2" _ 16.1" __ 7.5" ___ 2.1" _ 3.7" _ 0.3" ____ 8.8" _ 1.0" _ 4.0" ____ 56.8 (39.9) Tenman Johnson______ 10.2" _ 16.1" __ 6.5" __ 11.1" _ 3.7" _ 1.0" ____ 1.2" _ 1.0" _ 8.0" ____ 58.8 (45.1) Stebo _______________14.8" __ 9.9" _ 17.5" ___ 1.9" _ 4.7" _ 1.5" ____ 5.2" _ 0.0" _11.0" ____ 66.5 (5.2) SD _________________ 11.2" _ 12.1" _ 15.5" ___ 4.9" _ 2.7" _ 1.0" ____ 7.8" _ 1.0"_12.0" ____ 68.8 (23.3) BKViking _____________ 1.7" __ 5.7" _ 29.0" __ 11.4" _ 9.7" _ 0.5" ___ 18.3" _ 0.4" _ 5.6" ____ 82.3 (13.1) Tom ________________ 19.0" _ 20.7" _ 19.6" ___ 1.1" _ 7.8" _ 0.9" ____ 7.7" _ 0.0" _ 5.6" ____ 82.4 RodneyS ____________ 22.1" _ 22.1"_ 19.5" __ 10.1" _ 0.3" _ 0.0" ____12.2" _ 0.0" _ 3.5" ____ 89.8 (85.7) Rjay ________________ 12.8"_ 14.9" _ 28.5" __ 10.1" _ 1.2" _ 0.0 ____ 12.8" _ 0.0"_10.0" ____ 90.3 (10.1) Dmillz25 ______________ 4.5" _ 24.8" _ 45.1" ___ 4.2" _ 6.4" _ 0.5" ___ 11.9" _ 0.0" _ 7.7" ___ 105.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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