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Snow to ice to wind driven rain discussion/obs 2/23-2/25 SNE CNE NNE


Ginx snewx

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Flood watches for northern maine-don't often see that in February

 

Had one posted for the Jan 10 deluge, too - it's that kind of winter.  GYX may join in that chorus tomorrow, and for their CWA it would be mainly for runoff/snowmelt in small-medium streams rather than ice jams. 

 

We'll see if this can be another 2-3" disappearing snowfall, though the progged longer period of near-freezing temps might give us a 12 hr view before the new snow melts rather than the <6 hr for the two previous snow events.

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18z NAM is pretty good tonight...these later runs have been a lot different than Euro.

 

 

NAM even has an unstable sounding from about 550-700mb later this evening. That could be some S+ in a couple bands if it is correct. RAP doesn't show this until later on when we're basically flipping to pellets or ZR.

That was a big change on the NAM. Now I might look out the window.

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Yeah this is doing what some of the models showed early today. That bulge north. Gotta like these sneaky WAA systems with guld origins. Looks like sweet spot may be eastern CT and RI and into adjacent ORH county perhaps.

The sneaky moist Gulf wave that magically dries out as it approaches the areas that haven't snowed this season.  Gotta be some kind of witchcraft. 

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Yeah this is doing what some of the models showed early today. That bulge north. Gotta like these sneaky WAA systems with gulf origins. Looks like sweet spot may be eastern CT and RI and into adjacent ORH county perhaps.

 

The NW part looks kind of ragged...so I'd like to see a bit more northward push over the next hour or two and have that fill in a little. RAP does show this, but it could be too bullish too.

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The NW part looks kind of ragged...so I'd like to see a bit more northward push over the next hour or two and have that fill in a little. RAP does show this, but it could be too bullish too.

 

Yeah I feel ORH may be a lower confidence area. But seems like western RI may do pretty well. OKX radar does show that push north a bit..but it may be fighting more hostile dry air for a time too. But seems like 1 to 3 in a lot of those spots anyways. Might be a little more in spots. 

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