Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Multiple model agreement for a front end thump of snow overspreading SNE CNE NNE followed by ice in favored locales which could linger. Depending on the model anywhere from 2 to as much as 6 inches could fall prior to glazing. This will be quickly followed by driving windswept rain and wind, after frontal passage NNE could be flip back to snow with significant accumulations in favored upslope regions. From BOX ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF A COATING TO 2 INCHES. THISWILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITHICE ACCRETION OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF ANINCH IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS ALONG THE EASTSLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERNWORCESTER HILLS MAY SEE ICE ACCRETION APPROACH ONE QUARTER OF ANINCH.* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN 5 AND9 PM TUESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MIX WITHSLEET LATE TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL FREEZING RAINAFTER MIDNIGHT. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL THEN PERSISTTHROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING IF NOT INTO THE AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW AND ICE COVEREDTUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEWEDNESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR IS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITHHAZARDOUS TRAVEL.* POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THIS WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO NORTHERNCONNECTICUT...NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND AND INTERIOR NORTHEASTMASSACHUSETTS AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZINGRAIN IN THESE LOCATIONS AS WELL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAYMORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 GYX and BTV have not updated but here is BOX's first take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Just excerpted this segment for Northern Ct into interior Ma. If this comes to pass, we may see up to 12 hrs or more near to below freezing, which could certainly create havoc with the Wed morning rush: "..Temperatures will likely hold near or just belowfreezing across interior Massachusetts and northern CT into at leastWednesday morning. This should result in an extended period offreezing rain into Wednesday morning if not into the afternoon insome locales. .." Advisories already up for central Ma, and will probably extend down into northern Ct later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Going to Boston in the morning and coming home Wednesday morning should be a fun drive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 Going to Boston in the morning and coming home Wednesday morning should be a fun drive leave late Wed Am, enjoy the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Was thinking of leaving at 8 am might leave a little later leave late Wed Am, enjoy the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I will take the under on the snow and the ice But Weds AM could be messy driving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 18z RGEM p-type: *Caveat being this model was a hard fail last event when it was showing 4-7" from BTV to LCI. Wasn't even close really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 This two pronged event is really reminding me of that thing we had a couple weeks ago. Awoke to 29 F with substantial glaze on everything, after it snow a 3" the previous evening ... and it was in the mid 50s that following mid evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Hopefully some more 55-60 mph gusts like we all saw last week. Let's take a few more down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This two pronged event is really reminding me of that thing we had a couple weeks ago. Awoke to 29 F with substantial glaze on everything, after it snow a 3" the previous evening ... and it was in the mid 50s that following mid evening. You mean last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 18z RGEM p-type: *Caveat being this model was a hard fail last event when it was showing 4-7" from BTV to LCI. Wasn't even close really. image.png Recent bias confirmation aside I especially like the RGEM inside 24 for low level CAD. Last event the max ended up over in Lincoln NH at Loon but many areas like Jay also had more than it forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Recent bias confirmation aside I especially like the RGEM inside 24 for low level CAD. Last event the max ended up over in Lincoln NH at Loon but many areas like Jay also had more than it forecasted. What did they have at Loon? We did have 9" and Jay had 16" over the weekend...I wasn't paying attention, did they get crushed? I know even Will said something about the RGEM having a rough go of it recently. We'll see, I really hope its right as its got 0.25-0.5" of QPF as snow up here on the front end. I'd hit that any day. This was the past event within 24 hours... looks like it did well at Stowe/Jay/Loon, but lower elevations and BTV, Lakes Region of NH, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 What did they have at Loon? We did have 9" and Jay had 16" over the weekend...I wasn't paying attention, did they get crushed? I know even Will said something about the RGEM having a rough go of it recently. We'll see, I really hope its right as its got 0.25-0.5" of QPF as snow up here on the front end. I'd hit that any day. This was the past event within 24 hours... looks like it did well at Stowe/Jay/Loon, but lower elevations and BTV, Lakes Region of NH, not so much. rgem_snow_acc_neng_9.png Report was 5-6" which seemed accurate across most of the mountain, but there were definitely some spots on the upper mountain where there was more. My first run down an untracked Flume had to have had close to 10" piled up on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 New NAM is near warning level for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 New NAM is near warning level for many4K says meh to snow likes the ice though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Nam has several inches for the SNE area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Hi res naso much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 1-2 seems like a decent call, perhaps a few 3 inch amounts in the high terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Nam is kind of weenieish in that it has a ML warm front pretty defined. That would actually support a period of moderate to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 New NAM is near warning level for manyLooks meh in E SNE. Looks better over CT and W MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Nam is kind of weenieish in that it has a ML warm front pretty defined. That would actually support a period of moderate to heavy snow. Yeah that is very pronounced near 850. Reminds me a bit of 2/2 last year with the pronounced 850 warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 That would be a mess afternoon rush if correct, which is questionable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 12 degrees out, clear and calm, heading for sub-zero. This could be the third time this winter it has been below zero and then rained within 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Some of the models are kind of bullish. I'm always a little concerned about these gulf waves...moisture bombs they can be. We'll just have to see how consolidated the precip shield is by later tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Yeah that is very pronounced near 850. Reminds me a bit of 2/2 last year with the pronounced 850 warm front. Also has a cold tuck Wed afternoon...we'll have to watch that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Some of the models are kind of bullish. I'm always a little concerned about these gulf waves...moisture bombs they can be. We'll just have to see how consolidated the precip shield is by later tomorrow.impressive snowstorm for many in NNE on the NAM suite FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Also has a cold tuck Wed afternoon...we'll have to watch that. Yeah it does. Might have to shave a few off those temps near and especially W & N of Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 12 degrees out, clear and calm, heading for sub-zero. This could be the third time this winter it has been below zero and then rained within 36 hours. With a -NAO doing some blocking, these strong shortwaves and associated lows would be much more fun. Probably warning-criteria events in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Funny that many models have a rotten look to the cold tuck...IE temps not that cold. Past experience would have me think models are probably too mild and perhaps allowing for daytime heating to bias temps too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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