Jmister Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Another shameless plug for my radar comparison tool. It may come in handy when looking at when looking at trends in storm initiation/movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Temps pushing 70 just se of RIC and upper 40s nw of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Temps pushing 70 just se of RIC and upper 40s nw of the city. 53 with SE wind at home. Quite cloudy/foggy here at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I think the SPC went a little far with the hatched tornado risk but I could be wrong. Sun hasn't broken out here yet at all, 52.4 with some foggy conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I think the SPC went a little far with the hatched tornado risk but I could be wrong. Sun hasn't broken out here yet at all, 52.4 with some foggy conditions. I was told today is a day where we are relying on other sources to create our instability, having the sun come out isn't exactly make or break in this type of scenario, although it would help if I understand correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I think the SPC went a little far with the hatched tornado risk but I could be wrong. Sun hasn't broken out here yet at all, 52.4 with some foggy conditions. Sun isn't really what we are looking for. It wouldn't hurt obviously but our instability comes from advecting in an unstable airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 "Intense Tornadoes Possible" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Temps pushing 70 just se of RIC and upper 40s nw of the city. Temp is 46 IMBY just west of Fredericksburg.....Bowling Green, just South East of EZF is at 64.....thats like 20 miles as the crow flies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 So is our main threat the line thats supposed to move in around 4-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 So is our main threat the line thats supposed to move in around 4-6? Hrrr is showing two lines. Tge front running stuff that moves through around rush hour and a line later 7-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 "Intense Tornadoes Possible" That seems a tad dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Neat temp distribution with the cold wedge. Wundermap has southern maryland really warming but places in VA just across the river to the west are still stuck pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I'm up to 44 degrees. Need that warm push to migrate a bit more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 That seems a tad dramatic. They're just using SPC language though the SPC language is heavily targeted south. SPC is amazing overall but this is not their best area when it comes to forecasting. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Looks like a Red Box coming from DC south. LINK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 They're just using SPC language though the SPC language is heavily targeted south. SPC is amazing overall but this is not their best area when it comes to forecasting. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Similar events in the past have yielded a linear type thing coming through in a SSW to NNE direction barely missing DC to the south and then heading across the bay to the NE. Not sure if that'll happen here but my money is still on DC doing not much other than heavy rain and thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0145.html Mesoscale Discussion 145 < Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF VA/NC AND MD/DC METRO AREA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 241818Z - 242015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE TORNADO RISK WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM UPSTATE/PIEDMONT PORTIONS OF NC INTO SOUTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL VA AND EVENTUALLY ADJACENT MD/DC METRO VICINITY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG /EF2+/ TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...INCLUDING AREAS SPANNING RALEIGH/DURHAM NC AND THE I-85/I-95 CORRIDORS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE RICHMOND VA VICINITY. A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS HIGHLY LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN VA BY AROUND 19Z/2 PM EST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF VA/MD AND DC METRO AREA. DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON /1 PM EST/...MULTIPLE NNE/SSW-ORIENTED BANDS OF INCREASINGLY INTENSE STORMS ARE ONGOING IN TWO DISTINCT CORRIDORS...ONE ACROSS WESTERN NC AND THE OTHER ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC...EACH ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHILE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS HAS ALSO RECENTLY BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT/SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. AN EROSION/NORTHWARD-SHIFT OF THE WEDGE FRONT CONTINUES TO OCCUR AS A WARM FRONT EFFECTIVELY ANGLES SOUTHWEST/NORTHEASTWARD AT THE PRESENT TIME FROM WESTERN NC INTO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VA. GIVEN THAT REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS/RECENT WSR-88D VWP DATA ARE SAMPLING AN EXTREMELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT/MASS RESPONSE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION...IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT THE TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE/SHIFT GENERALLY NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION/FRONTAL WEDGE EROSION CONTINUES TO OCCUR. ..GUYER/GRAMS.. 02/24/2016 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36358067 37677980 38917802 38907686 38227584 36797638 35577882 36358067 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Similar events in the past have yielded a linear type thing coming through in a SSW to NNE direction barely missing DC to the south and then heading across the bay to the NE. Not sure if that'll happen here but my money is still on DC doing not much other than heavy rain and thunder. Storms always seem to blow up over Stafford and then give the worst to La Plata imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 actually, the MD says that an initial box will be issued for southern VA, and a box for DC Metro will likely come out in a few hours. Looks like a Red Box coming from DC south. LINK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Even though low level cold air is hanging tough, the warm push is definitely making a concerted effort. I've been taking a look at the recent Roanoake/Sterling radar loops, surface obs and RAPID SCAN SATELLITE, it won't take much to punch that warm air in here. I would not be surprised by during the 2 - 5 pm timeframe you suddenly see the temps spike into the low 60s east of US 15. In fact, the latest surface obs show most of the I-95 corridor is now in the low mid 50s. Not sold on this yet, but I can definitely see why SPC did what they did. It reminds me a bit of the two April 2011 events (17th and 24th?) Where DC saw a bunch of little spin ups and TORs in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Sounds like we get our tor watch later i.e. after 3.... maybe PDS to our south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 Similar events in the past have yielded a linear type thing coming through in a SSW to NNE direction barely missing DC to the south and then heading across the bay to the NE. Not sure if that'll happen here but my money is still on DC doing not much other than heavy rain and thunder.I've generally favored Fredericksburg to S MD as northern extent of real tor risk. Could be someting minor north. I'll go down with that ship I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 This must be something they weren't expecting. I saw no mention of it yesterday; now all of a sudden we're talking about PDS watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Latest HRRR runs have been pretty poor with parameters for DC proper. FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Even though low level cold air is hanging tough, the warm push is definitely making a concerted effort. I've been taking a look at the recent Roanoake/Sterling radar loops, surface obs and RAPID SCAN SATELLITE, it won't take much to punch that warm air in here. I would not be surprised by during the 2 - 5 pm timeframe you suddenly see the temps spike into the low 60s east of US 15. In fact, the latest surface obs show most of the I-95 corridor is now in the low mid 50s. Not sold on this yet, but I can definitely see why SPC did what they did. It reminds me a bit of the two April 2011 events (17th and 24th?) Where DC saw a bunch of little spin ups and TORs in the evening. Rapid scan is awesome. So mesmerizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 RE: Ion's flood threat. Still agree this is the biggest concern...LINK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 This must be something they weren't expecting. I saw no mention of it yesterday; now all of a sudden we're talking about PDS watches. Think SPC was too focused on yesterday to manage the risk better up here. Should have been in slight at d2. So it looks like huge changes even though there weren't really big changes in the models. PDS seems a stretch unless they are going to issue a lot more PDS watches this year. The first watch was close but not quite and it covers parts of the mod zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 NWS issues TORNADO WATCH until 02:00 UTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raven94 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Temps here are soaring 4-5 degrees a hour right now. Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Tornado Watch out for AKQ and RNK CWA till 9 pm URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 27 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 145 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MARYLAND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL 900 PM EST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD INTO EARLY EVENING WITH ATTENDANT TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND HAZARDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.