yoda Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC1033 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...UPDATE...WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHERN VA ATTM WITH TEMPSAND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S DOWN THERE. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERYFROM NSSL-WRF ARW INDICATES BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPINGTHIS AFTERNOON. COMPARISON WITH CURRENT GOES IMAGERY INDICATE THATHIGH CLOUD CANOPY IS MOVING MUCH FASTER THAN SIMULATED IMAGERY.INTENSE 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS PROGGED LATER TODAY WITH 230 METER12-HR HEIGHT CHANGE AND 7MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS THIS AFTERNOONINDICATIVE THAT WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATERTODAY. MODEL CAPE VALUES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 1000 J/KGCOMBINED WITH 60-65KT 0-6KM MEAN FLOW INDICATE POTENTIAL FORSEVERE WX. SIMULATED COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FROM VARIOUS MODELSSHOW A SOLID LINE OF T-STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 21Z-01Z. FLOODING THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAYWITH MODELS BACKING OFF SUBSTANTIALLY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS WITHAMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH. LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE RATHER FASTMOVING SO THIS WILL DEFINITELY CUT DOWN ON TOTALS BUT RAINFALLRATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE. SO APPEARS BIGGEST THREAT FORTODAY IS SEVERE T-STORMS RATHER THAN FLOODING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Eskimo Joe being fairly bullish = no thunder for us Trust me, I'm not. Events like this seem to bust 10 times out of 9. Just sick of boring weather. Given me a Gaithersburg wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Trust me, I'm not. Events like this seem to bust 10 times out of 9. Just sick of boring weather. Given me a Gaithersburg wedge. That long track EF-0 in MoCo was fun. We should do that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1033 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHERN VA ATTM WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S DOWN THERE. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM NSSL-WRF ARW INDICATES BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. COMPARISON WITH CURRENT GOES IMAGERY INDICATE THAT HIGH CLOUD CANOPY IS MOVING MUCH FASTER THAN SIMULATED IMAGERY. INTENSE 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS PROGGED LATER TODAY WITH 230 METER 12-HR HEIGHT CHANGE AND 7MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATIVE THAT WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY. MODEL CAPE VALUES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH 60-65KT 0-6KM MEAN FLOW INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX. SIMULATED COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FROM VARIOUS MODELS SHOW A SOLID LINE OF T-STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 21Z- 01Z. FLOODING THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY WITH MODELS BACKING OFF SUBSTANTIALLY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH. LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE RATHER FAST MOVING SO THIS WILL DEFINITELY CUT DOWN ON TOTALS BUT RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE. SO APPEARS BIGGEST THREAT FOR TODAY IS SEVERE T-STORMS RATHER THAN FLOODING. haha. I mean yeah, but maybe they should check flash flood guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 A closer view at the Jet. https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/Cb_fH6gWAAAb2OX.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Tornado Watch up for North Carolina Temps around 70 in Hampton Roads already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 > 4" in < 6 hours please...that's when things get soggy in Moco. Also, FEMA logic: National EAS test during a severe wx outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Enhanced risk at 1630 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 hmm 10% hatched tor into DC heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 hmm 10% hatched into DC heh The discussion text makes it sound like our ENH is mainly for wind tho. Oh SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 hmm 10% hatched tor into DC heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 We just went enhanced...as we break 50 in GAI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 The discussion text makes it sound like our ENH is mainly for wind tho. Oh SPC SPC looooooooooooooves shear. For good reason many times but not always. I don't think it's a 10% hatched here but maybe I'm wrong. Their mod is basically exactly where I'd have put it as of last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Prob won't see this for a while again PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1043 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... * LOCATIONS... CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA SOUTHERN MARYLAND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA * HAZARDS... SEVERAL TORNADOES, A FEW INTENSE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL * SUMMARY... SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES, A FEW OF WHICH SHOULD BE STRONG, AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 SPC looooooooooooooves shear. For good reason many times but not always. I don't think it's a 10% hatched here but maybe I'm wrong. Their mod is basically exactly where I'd have put it as of last night. I'd feel pretty good about severe if I was in like St. Mary's County, MD. If I wasn't so lazy I'd head down to the family condo down there. I almost think the 10% hatching into DC is sort of to "smooth" the outlook if nothing else - I agree I'm not sure I"d have gone that high here. 30% wind I guess I could get behind because of the squall potential. Plus...around these parts 40mph winds are considered severe gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Prob won't see this for a while again In February no less. Maybe we'll just go bonkers this spring with severe around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 In February no less. Maybe we'll just go bonkers this spring with severe around here Kinda weird coming out of Nino isn't our best bet usually for svr, especially early. Ninas tend to be more friendly on that level. Although there is some small precedent for Nino tor pretty far north in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 DCA jumped to 52...maybe this is the 0.01% time the warm front doesn't get hung up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 and the GFS shows more un-Nino-like strong systems tracking to our west in the next 2 weeks, suggesting that more threats may be in the cards.... Kinda weird coming out of Nino isn't our best bet usually for svr, especially early. Ninas tend to be more friendly on that level. Although there is some small precedent for Nino tor pretty far north in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Kinda weird coming out of Nino isn't our best bet usually for svr, especially early. Ninas tend to be more friendly on that level. Although there is some small precedent for Nino tor pretty far north in winter. I am not enough of a climo guy like to have any idea with that stuff. Yoda must be getting pissed off at me. I've been shooting down his excitement for the last few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 DCA jumped to 52...maybe this is the 0.01% time the warm front doesn't get hung up? Not much of a question that we'll warm sector in the city. Warm front is already in the neighborhood. But we should stay rather contaminated it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 DCA jumped to 52...maybe this is the 0.01% time the warm front doesn't get hung up? Upper 60's northern neck and eastern shore already. Pretty impressive push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Nasty cell SW of blacksburg in NC heading north. Might be the first spinny thing of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Nasty cell SW of blacksburg in NC heading north. Might be the first spinny thing of the day. RNK starting the warnings... will be matter of time before we see the MD for VA come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Wouldn't be surprised to see a Red Box from I-70 south. Delmarva could get a spinny. Give me >4" rain in less than an hour and I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 and the GFS shows more un-Nino-like strong systems tracking to our west in the next 2 weeks, suggesting that more threats may be in the cards.... Guess we can thank the WAR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 yes, the enemy of the medium range winter thread is the friend of the severe weather thread Guess we can thank the WAR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It would seem that the WF is along the Potomac? I see S MD has some stations reporting 58/58 or 59/59 in PG county... I am using this -- http://preview.weather.gov/edd/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It would seem that the WF is along the Potomac? I see S MD has some stations reporting 58/58 or 59/59 in PG county... I am using this -- http://preview.weather.gov/edd/ Would tend to agree. Our wind is now SSE at the wx station at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It would seem that the WF is along the Potomac? I see S MD has some stations reporting 58/58 or 59/59 in PG county... I am using this -- http://preview.weather.gov/edd/another view as of 17z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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