yoda Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0714 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... * LOCATIONS... CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SOUTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA * HAZARDS... SEVERAL TORNADOES, A FEW INTENSE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL * SUMMARY... STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE FORECAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND INTO FLORIDA TODAY. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 13z HRRR gets 70 to around DC but there's a very sharp gradient. Looks like low 50s at best on that run as close as Frederick. SPC risk area looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 644 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-251145- CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA- PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR- CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY- CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER- PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD- TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES- ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE- 644 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA...EXCEPT SOUTHERN MARYLAND...FROM 10 AM TO MIDNIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD MESSAGE...FFALWX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Don't see that too often...it diminishes rapidly as it goes through the DC area proper but still very fun to look at. Still chilly here. Long day ahead maybe for NC/SEVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 Still wish it was April but the mod zone should Rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 Plus I haven't heard thunder in forever so I'm pumped about that potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Still wish it was April but the mod zone should Rock. The 12z 4km NAM looks A LOT more realistic than that weird 0z run last night that barely gave the mod zone anything. Looks like cellular stuff and lines in the mod zone and some weaker but still organized stuff near us. 0z last night was curious - was never going to verify...then again...when does sim ref ever verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I've always wondered which CAPE to use. I always just assume SBCAPE - but when exactly is the best time to use MU vs ML vs SB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 I've always wondered which CAPE to use. I always just assume SBCAPE - but when exactly is the best time to use MU vs ML vs SB? Not sure there's hard rules. Always good to have CAPE everywhere. But MUCAPE may be more important this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Not sure there's hard rules. Always good to have CAPE everywhere. But MUCAPE may be more important this time of year. At least from my memory - MUCAPE tends to always look the most "juiced" while MLCAPE always seems to look the most paltry. I assume it's based upon how it is calculated. Looks like the newest runs of the HRRR back off on the temps just a tad. The zone SE of I-95 but not north of DC will get at least a token warning or two I'd think. I think the cutoff from interesting to gusty showers could be quite sharp to the north of DC (ex: me ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Yoda/Ian whomever - here is where I reveal ignorance - I have always assumed on those maps that under the pink shading means best chance of storms, is that correct? And within the inner black circles best chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1007 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-251115- CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA- PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR- CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY- CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER- PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD- TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES- ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE- 1007 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016 .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA...EXCEPT SOUTHERN MARYLAND...FROM 10 AM TO MIDNIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD MESSAGE...FFALWX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 it's not going to clear out. our heating will be done by advection, not by the sun. When should things start clearing out? After noon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Yoda/Ian whomever - here is where I reveal ignorance - I have always assumed on those maps that under the pink shading means best chance of storms, is that correct? And within the inner black circles best chance? That parameter is specific to the "significant tornado" parameter. Most of the time around here it's just fun to look at. But the higher the value the better the "ingredients" for significant tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Important link to bookmark: GOES RAPID UPDATE SATELLITE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 exactly. higher values indicate that there is a combination of cape, shear, low LCL heights, and cin that favors strong tornadoes IF storms develop and stay discrete. If no storms develop, then the good parameters are wasted, although the environments where this parameter gets maximized usually favor storm formation. one caveat: it tends to look really good in low cape / high shear events in which the updrafts never get established, so that can lead to "false positives." You can also get events in which this parameter looks great, but the forcing is so strong that you end up with a squall line with limited rotational elements (which is why I added the "stay discrete"). That parameter is specific to the "significant tornado" parameter. Most of the time around here it's just fun to look at. But the higher the value the better the "ingredients" for significant tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 45 and occasional showers here pretty much not interested in getting carried off by a twister today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 exactly. higher values indicate that there is a combination of cape, shear, low LCL heights, and cin that favors strong tornadoes IF storms develop and stay discrete. If no storms develop, then the good parameters are wasted, although the environments where this parameter gets maximized usually favor storm formation. one caveat: it tends to look really good in low cape / high shear events in which the updrafts never get established, so that can lead to "false positives." You can also get events in which this parameter looks great, but the forcing is so strong that you end up with a squall line with limited rotational elements (which is why I added the "stay discrete"). Great post. I'm guessing today in a decent chunk of the DC area may be a situation where it is overdone. Exception would obviously be southern Maryland and adjacent areas to the south and east. Yoda and I love us some parameters but I (and hopefully him) know they are probably not going to be realized locally. Sorry Ian - no #monumentwedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Thanks. The parameter is described here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/help/stp.html Having lower cape will chop down the values, but a day with 500 j/kg cape can still give high values of STP on a day like today when the shear is very strong and LCL's will be low. Now if we DO get into the 60s and cape can approach 1000 or so (and if it's distributed such that there is some cape in the lower levels), the threat may be real. Great post. I'm guessing today in a decent chunk of the DC area may be a situation where it is overdone. Exception would obviously be southern Maryland and adjacent areas to the south and east. Yoda and I love us some parameters but I (and hopefully him) know they are probably not going to be realized locally. Sorry Ian - no #monumentwedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 12z RAP soundings for DCA at from the 21z-01z range all signal TORNADO as potential hazard type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 12z RAP soundings for DCA at from the 21z-01z range all signal TORNADO as potential hazard type You know the token Tornado Watch will be up at some point today, for any of these forecast soundings to verify its gotta be one heckuva warm air push as it is still 42 and dreary here in Spotsy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Lots of shower stuff scattered around the area except for E of 95 it looks like. Have had a few moderate rainers this morning already. I'm sure we'll get a mesoscale discussion but a watch would probably be only for our SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 We do have a ripping jet just off the ground, might help scour the cold air out quicker. Temps are slowly, but steadily rising to our south and east. Parts of the lower eastern shore of Maryland already pushing past 60 degrees. GFS shows a really nice slug if due south winds aloft. Thunder from I-70 south would be a safe bet at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 We do have a ripping jet just off the ground, might help scour the cold air out quicker. Temps are slowly, but steadily rising to our south and east. Parts of the lower eastern shore of Maryland already pushing past 60 degrees. GFS shows a really nice slug if due south winds aloft. Thunder from I-70 south would be a safe bet at least. 00zGFS_02242016.jpg If I hear thunder and see lightning today, it will be a win. Like you said, the Jet just off the deck is fairly impressive, so maybe the warm air gets in here pretty quickly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 I think flash flooding may be the risk fo the day locally. The HRRR trains us to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Eskimo Joe being fairly bullish = no thunder for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I think flash flooding may be the risk fo the day locally. The HRRR trains us to death. That's pretty boring...unless it's June 2006 I suppose. Well I guess not boring for those idiots that will try to cross a washed out road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I think flash flooding may be the risk fo the day locally. The HRRR trains us to death. Also worth noting is the HRRR has backed off on the warmer temps a bit - not a ton but enough to put a damper on svr risk in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.