Ian Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Tomorrow's a tough one in several ways. If it was a month later or April I'd be fairly pumped. Still, heavily meridional trough which is generally a negative in going big. Signs are it's going to be pretty hard to destabilize properly. I don't think this is necessarily a case where a little CAPE works wonders. We need enough instability for updrafts not to get sheared apart. Generally agree with SPC outlook still. One thing to watch perhaps is the NAM idea of a low popping along the Blue Ridge and riding north through the region. That enhances the backing which may increase the risk of a spinup somewhere. Getting tor this far north this early is pretty unusual. Same in general for wind really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I still like SEVA and the adjacent area in NC. Still only see gusty showers for us no matter what parameters say. 09z SREF on the SPC site does get good median sup composite but we know how much that counts for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 NAM STP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 NAM STP Um... we would need more like the 7-10pm panel if you are going to post that for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Decent little event for Deep South today, looks like a spin up tossed a few twigs around just west of the NOLA Airport. Hopefully we can at least manage a few gully washers tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 4km NMM 12z run brings a very healthy looking complex through around 02z tomorrow night. ARW is sort of similar I suppose. I'm not in until Ian is in. Which could be never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Decent little event for Deep South today, looks like a spin up tossed a few twigs around just west of the NOLA Airport. Hopefully we can at least manage a few gully washers tomorrow. Sarcasm much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 4km NMM 12z run brings a very healthy looking complex through around 02z tomorrow night. ARW is sort of similar I suppose. I'm not in until Ian is in. Which could be never. We've seen warm fronts get hung up too many times like 50 miles south of DC...still would love to get a sneaky SVR event with decent downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 We've seen warm fronts get hung up too many times like 50 miles south of DC...still would love to get a sneaky SVR event with decent downpours. Yeah - I'd assume this will happen as usual. I'd feel semi more confident if it was showing the warm pushing more north. It's pretty close on the models for DCA so I'd assume it'll be a good bit south of where it's modeled. Too bad it's not April or May like Ian said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Decent little event for Deep South today, looks like a spin up tossed a few twigs around just west of the NOLA Airport. Hopefully we can at least manage a few gully washers tomorrow. Uh huh SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1248 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 LAC063-091-105-231915- /O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-160223T1915Z/ TANGIPAHOA LA-LIVINGSTON LA-ST. HELENA LA- 1248 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CST FOR WEST CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA...NORTH CENTRAL LIVINGSTON AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. HELENA PARISHES... AT 1248 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER LIVINGSTON...OR 14 MILES EAST OF DENHAM SPRINGS... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Not too shabby: 2 PM CST outlook update from SPC: "an upgrade to High Risk may be warranted at a later update for a small portion of the Moderate Risk." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Not too shabby: 2 PM CST outlook update from SPC: "an upgrade to High Risk may be warranted at a later update for a small portion of the Moderate Risk." PDS watch issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Looking at 18z NAM, it would appear that the WF gets to between KDCA and KBWI looking at the soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Not too shabby: 2 PM CST outlook update from SPC: "an upgrade to High Risk may be warranted at a later update for a small portion of the Moderate Risk." Kinda confusing but they are a lot better at small area threats than in past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 SREF looks nice. Still sticking with my call. Even Yoda won't get me to change it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Hrs 24 and 27 00z NAM soundings at DCA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Kinda hard to ignore that the NAM now shows about 1000 j/kg of sfc-based cape to go along with the crazy low-level shear. We rarely get significant severe here in low cape / high shear environments, and I was thinking that would be our setup for tomorrow evening, but 1000 j/kg would make this a different ball game if it's right. I am, however, somewhat skeptical of the NAM's evolution in the soundings shown by Yoda, as the low-level lapse rates sharpen awfully dramatically between 00 and 03z. The sounding at 00z would likely not support robust convection, despite having some cape due to an absence of instability in the low levels which would limit parcel acceleration. The forecast sounding at 03z, however, would likely support severe and potentially significant severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I find it interesting that the 4km NAM gives us the bulk of the activity and doesn't really do much in the NC area. I'm not sure it'll play out that way There's several pieces of guidance that seemingly shaft that NC "butter zone" and send a lot of activity into the DC area. I'll believe it when I see it but it's fun to look at. Ian seems on the verge of being in over on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Models underdo CAD most of the time and with the cold ocean temps it's going to be hard to get the surface to heat. That's why we will get a squall line like we always do. It looks a lot worse than it did along the gulf coast for NC and south central VA. wonder if SPC updates the risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 DC in slight risk w 5/15/15 probs. Not looking like a fun day in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 8am update pushed the SLGT way into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Solidly in the slight risk now. That enhanced area and even hatched tornado probs are creeping closer on the latest SPC update. I'm not sure it'll come any closer, though. Slight probably is where we max locally in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Slight risk expanded well north to the Poconos with the new SWODY1: Discussion for posterity: DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0700 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016VALID 241300Z - 251200Z...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTHCAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA......THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN SC NWD TO THECHESAPEAKE BAY AREA......THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARDFROM FL NWD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION......THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ALONGAND E OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NRN AND ERN NEWENGLAND......SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS ANDTORNADOES ARE FORECAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWARDTHROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND INTO FLORIDA TODAY. THE HIGHEST THREAT FORSEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARDINTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA....SYNOPSIS...A DEEP MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTHATTM WILL LIFT SLOWLY NNEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THEPERIOD...WHILE VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT /110-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL JET/ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW AND SHIFTS ACROSS THE E COAST STATES.THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH LARGER/BROADER TROUGH WHICH WILLCOVER MOST OF THE ERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP LOW INVOF THE TN VALLEY IS FORECAST TO MOVESTEADILY NEWD WITH TIME...CROSSING PA AND NY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES STEADILY EWD ACROSS THEAPPALACHIANS TOWARD THE COAST...GRADUAL EROSION OF A COLD AIR DAM EOF THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED IN A ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARMADVECTION E OF THE SURFACE LOW. WEAK DESTABILIZATION WHERE THEDAMMING AIRMASS CAN ERODE COUPLED WITH VERY STRONG LOWER- AND MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...PLUS STRONG ASCENT...WILL SUPPORTWIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THEATLANTIC COAST STATES....ERN SEABOARD FROM SERN NY SWD TO FL...A BAND OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IS MOVING ACROSS ERN SC/SERNGA/NRN AND WRN FL ATTM...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT S OF THEDEEP TN VALLEY LOW. SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO ONGOING ACROSSPARTS OF THE CAROLINAS/VA...IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ATOP A STOUTWEDGE OF COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE.STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ACT TO GRADUALLY ERODE THEDAMMING AIRMASS FROM SE-NW TODAY...AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES FROMTHE W. WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING CAN OCCUR...MODESTDESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS -- POSSIBLY WITHIN...BUT LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THEONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING NNEWD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A VERYINTENSE WIND FIELD SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...STORMS WILL RAPIDLYSTRENGTHEN/ORGANIZE -- INTO BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINESEGMENTS. THE GREATEST RISK/HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SIGNIFICANT SEVEREWEATHER APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS ERN NC INTO SERN VA...WHERE THEDAMMING AIRMASS IS MORE LIKELY TO ERODE MOST FULLY AND MOST QUICKLY.HERE...ISOLATED/POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONGWITH DAMAGING WINDS.FARTHER N...SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS PA ANDINTO THE CATSKILLS. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BANDS OFINCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEAR LIKELY TO EVOLVE. WHILEINSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK -- AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATEDABOVE A SHALLOW COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER...STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDSUGGESTS THAT WINDS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS WILLOCCUR AT LEAST LOCALLY. THE THREAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL ENDFROM W TO E THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST...GOSS/ROGERS.. 02/24/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 When should things start clearing out? After noon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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