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Feb 24 2016 severe weather outbreak


Ian

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Short range models did a decent job highlighting the temp disparity and CAD.  Too bad it held firm, likely going to put a lid on anything decent other than a rogue spin up.  I gotta stop excited over these crapshoot events.

We'll see - those cells down near Palmyra, VA are riding the temp gradient nicely right now.

EDIT: In fact, some of the temperature readings on Wundermap down there are lower than some right in the immediate DC area. 

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Yeah I was hoping to see some destroyed homes today, how disappointing.  :weep:

As much as tornadoes are the only weather event that I really fear and can't personally root for, we go over this every year.

 

This is a board of weather enthusiasts who root for the most interesting outcomes. While nobody is hoping for death, it is the hobby we have. 

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Short range models did a decent job highlighting the temp disparity and CAD.  Too bad it held firm, likely going to put a lid on anything decent other than a rogue spin up.  I gotta stop excited over these crapshoot events.

 

were we ever supposed to warm much more then we have? except a few hrrr runs that got into the 70s?

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  

422 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A  

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  

WESTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

NORTHWESTERN LUNENBURG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

 

* UNTIL 445 PM EST  

 

* AT 422 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THIS  

STORM WAS LOCATED OVER DRYBURG...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF REDOAK...  

AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 75 MPH.  

 

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...  

CHASE CITY AROUND 435 PM EST.  

KELLS CORNER AROUND 440 PM EST.  

LUNENBURG AND REHOBOTH AROUND 445 PM EST.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  

425 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

EASTERN FLUVANNA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

NORTHWESTERN GOOCHLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

 

* UNTIL 500 PM EST  

 

* AT 424 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS  

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GOLD HILL...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF CUMBERLAND...  

AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.  

 

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  

LAKESIDE VILLAGE AROUND 430 PM EST.  

FORK UNION...CARTERSVILLE...COLUMBIA AND DUNCAN AROUND 435 PM EST.  

FIFE AROUND 440 PM EST.  

KENTS STORE AROUND 445 PM EST.  

HADENSVILLE AROUND 450 PM EST.  

 

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These things really do tend to roll in earlier than guidance originally suggested. Has happened countless times in the past. Remember when this was a 0z-6z kind of deal?

All eyes are going to be on the cells in the line that have the two TOR warnings on them. Those have good trajectory for the DC area. Also, locations east of a line from like Rockville to where the cells are now have warmed decently. Not 70 degrees or anything but it should be enough to sustain something. 

What could happen and likely will is the cells will congeal into a line - this is sort of happening already. If this happens, the tor threat should lower and the wind damage threat should increase. But there could still be the usual spinnys within the line. 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  

428 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A  

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  

SOUTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

PRINCE EDWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

NORTHWESTERN NOTTOWAY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

 

* UNTIL 500 PM EST  

 

* AT 428 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THIS  

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DRAKES BRANCH...OR NEAR CHARLOTTE COURT  

HOUSE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.  

 

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...  

HAMPDEN SYDNEY COLLEGE AND GREEN BAY AROUND 450 PM EST.  

CREWE...BURKEVILLE AND RICE AROUND 455 PM EST.  

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These things really do tend to roll in earlier than guidance originally suggested. Has happened countless times in the past. Remember when this was a 0z-6z kind of deal?

All eyes are going to be on the cells in the line that have the two TOR warnings on them. Those have good trajectory for the DC area. Also, locations east of a line from like Rockville to where the cells are now have warmed decently. Not 70 degrees or anything but it should be enough to sustain something. 

What could happen and likely will is the cells will congeal into a line - this is sort of happening already. If this happens, the tor threat should lower and the wind damage threat should increase. But there could still be the usual spinnys within the line. 

Seems like all the TORs are in the environment where its AOA 68 degrees.  We've probably warmed enough to get a trash bag to blow across the street, and the parameters justified the watch, but we have zero surface instability to sustain the updrafts.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
430 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

ANZ538-DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ052>055-
057-501-502-505-506-250000-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-
FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-KING GEORGE-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN-
EASTERN LOUDOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...
BALLENGER CREEK...ELDERSBURG...WESTMINSTER...REISTERSTOWN...
COCKEYSVILLE...BALTIMORE...BOWIE...SUITLAND-SILVER HILL...
CLINTON...COLLEGE PARK...GREENBELT...LAUREL...CAMP SPRINGS...
GLEN BURNIE...ANNAPOLIS...SEVERN...SOUTH GATE...SEVERNA PARK...
ARNOLD...ODENTON...ST. CHARLES...WALDORF...LEXINGTON PARK...
CALIFORNIA...CHESAPEAKE BEACH...HUNTINGTOWN...DUNKIRK...
NORTH BEACH...LUSBY...PRINCE FREDERICK...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...
BETHESDA...ROCKVILLE...GAITHERSBURG...SILVER SPRING...LISBON...
COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN...DALE CITY...
MANASSAS...WOODBRIDGE...LAKE RIDGE...MONTCLAIR...RESTON...
HERNDON...ANNANDALE...CENTREVILLE...CHANTILLY...MCLEAN...
FRANCONIA...ARLINGTON...ALEXANDRIA...FALMOUTH...DAHLGREN...
WARRENTON...PURCELLVILLE...LEESBURG...ASHBURN...STERLING
430 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...TORNADIC THREAT DURING EVENING RUSH HOUR...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME EMBEDDED TORNADOES IS HEADING
TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS. THIS LINE WILL
LIKELY CROSS THE METRO AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF EVENING RUSH HOURS
BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM.

STAY ALERT FOR WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER QUICKLY
IF YOUR LOCATION IS WARNED OR IF DANGEROUS WEATHER THREATENS.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTDOORS OR IN YOUR VEHICLE DURING A TORNADO...
THERE IS NO SAFE PLACE TO BE. JUST GET AS LOW AS YOU CAN AND COVER
YOUR HEAD TO PROTECT AS MUCH AS YOU CAN FROM DEBRIS. GET INDOORS
IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IN A TORNADO IS IN A STURDY HOME OR
BUSINESS...ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM...AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

$
STRONG

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  

432 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A  

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  

NORTHWESTERN LOUISA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

 

* UNTIL 500 PM EST  

 

* AT 432 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS  

OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOSWELLS TAVERN...OR 8 MILES  

WEST OF LOUISA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.  

 

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  

NORTHWESTERN LOUISA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: BYRD  

MILL...WARES CROSSROADS...LOUISA AIRPORT...VAWTER CORNER...TREVILIANS...  

WALDROP AND GREEN SPRINGS.  

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...  

DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO  

AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY  

RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER  

COVERS THE ROAD.  

 

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.  

ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...  

ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...  

SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

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MWLWX

ANZ530-531-242300-

/O.NEW.KLWX.MA.W.0006.160224T2130Z-160224T2300Z/

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

430 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

 

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...

  CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD...

  CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD...

 

* UNTIL 600 PM EST

 

* AT 429 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...

  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS AND WINDS TO NEARLY 50 KNOTS...

  LOCATED OVER THOMAS POINT LIGHT...MOVING NORTH AT 45 KNOTS.

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

  BUSH RIVER...HART MILLER ISLAND...SUSQUEHANNA FLATS...POOLES

  ISLAND...NORTHEAST RIVER...ELK RIVER...SPESUTIE ISLAND...TURKEY

  POINT...GUNPOWDER RIVER AND MIDDLE RIVER.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY

OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR

IMMEDIATELY.

 

&&

 

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EST FOR NORTHERN

MARYLAND AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

 

LAT...LON 3953 7598 3942 7600 3932 7619 3919 7626

      3922 7642 3930 7639 3931 7633 3939 7636

      3939 7631 3930 7629 3930 7628 3945 7628

      3947 7624 3947 7622 3937 7625 3936 7625

      3935 7623 3945 7606 3949 7613 3954 7609

TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 200DEG 47KT 3892 7640 
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Seems like all the TORs are in the environment where its AOA 68 degrees.  We've probably warmed enough to get a trash bag to blow across the street, and the parameters justified the watch, but we have zero surface instability to sustain the updrafts.

 

I'd assume we'll transition to more of a squally gusty wind thread like I said a little ago. Won't take a ton of effort to get a 60mph gust down. 

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  

434 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  

ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

SOUTH CENTRAL CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  

EASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...  

WEST CENTRAL SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

EAST CENTRAL ALBEMARLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

 

* UNTIL 515 PM EST  

 

* AT 433 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS  

OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FERNCLIFF...OR NEAR  

LOUISA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

ORANGE...GORDONSVILLE...MITCHELLS...LAHORE...BELMONT...WINSTON...  

VERDIERSVILLE...RACCOON FORD...LOGAN...RAPIDAN...MADISON RUN...  

THORNHILL...RHOADESVILLE...UNIONVILLE...EVERONA...GOLD DALE...  

NASONS AND MINE RUN.  

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY  

LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN  

INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY  

RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER  

COVERS THE ROAD.  

 

THIS IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. DUE TO THE ROTATING NATURE OF THESE  

STORMS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER...  

INCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...  

AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY  

INTO A BASEMENT...OR AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.

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Someone please clarify identifying what I circled.

 

I think it is just a radar issue.  It is perfectly radial from the radar itself.  There is no signal either on kdp.

 

edit - yeah, just go look at Wakefield's radar, different orientation.  I wonder if one of the wavelength directions is getting attenuated.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  

447 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

SOUTHEASTERN FLUVANNA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

NORTHWESTERN GOOCHLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

EASTERN LOUISA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

 

* UNTIL 515 PM EST  

 

* AT 446 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS  

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HADENSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45  

MPH.  

 

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  

HADENSVILLE AROUND 450 PM EST.  

LOUISA AND MINERAL AROUND 505 PM EST.  

BUMPASS AROUND 510 PM EST

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  

450 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

SOUTHWESTERN STAFFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  

THE NORTHWESTERN CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

SOUTHEASTERN CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  

CENTRAL SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...  

SOUTHEASTERN FAUQUIER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  

 

* UNTIL 515 PM EST  

 

* AT 450 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 11  

MILES NORTH OF MINERAL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  

451 PM EST WED FEB 24 2016  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  

WESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...  

WESTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...  

SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...  

NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...  

FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...  

NORTHERN FAIRFAX COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  

LOUDOUN COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...  

NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...  

EAST CENTRAL BERKELEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...  

 

* UNTIL 530 PM EST  

 

* AT 451 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE  

THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING  

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  

EXTENDING FROM NEAR SHEPHERDSTOWN TO MIDDLEBURG...AND MOVING  

NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

FREDERICK...ROCKVILLE...GAITHERSBURG...LEESBURG...THURMONT...  

POOLESVILLE...SHEPHERDSTOWN...BROADLANDS...DAMASCUS...LOWES  

ISLAND...LANSDOWNE...GERMANTOWN...HARRY GROVE STADIUM...MOUNT  

AIRY...PURCELLVILLE...BRUNSWICK...WALKERSVILLE...BOONSBORO...NEW  

MARKET AND ROUND HILL.

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