weatherwiz Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The next major weather system progged for mid-week looks to be quite the dynamic system and with a storm track well to our west we will see a surge of much warmer and more moist air work into southern New England. The GFS is suggesting PWAT values as high as 1.3'' so the potential for some very heavy rains is possible! The GFS also has a very potent MLJ streak in which the region is on the nose of overnight Wednesday into Thursday at the same time a decent burst of MUcape advects in ([per the GFS) along with steepening lapse rates. Outside of heavy rain potential we could see some gusty t'storms as well and if those MUcape values verify we could see some strong wind gusts as well. Not sure if we will see anything near SVR potential but it can't be ruled out. Perhaps a higher chance to our SW. Some images of 500mb winds and lapse rates/MUCape I just have on my blog http://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2016/02/heavy-rains-and-thunder-possible.html This should be fun to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 You know...we actually get a LEGIT shot at interesting weather...very dynamic system with lots going on but nobody wants to talk about it b/c everyone is too busy crying and fantasizing about crap that's "10 days" away and trying to make things out of something that isn't. This system has 110-120+ knot MLJ streak at 500 and 100+ knot at 700...I mean WTF...this should be talked about and discussed...this is bull****. Doesn't anyone appreciate dynamics like this? Doesn't anyone understand this? Plus the projected MUcape...and lapse rates...we continuously have seen steep lapse rates and just wait until severe season starts and we keep seeing this. It's very sad the lack of appreciation for a system like we are seeing mid-week b/c it's beautiful and it should be talked about. This is absolutely ridiculous...beyond ridiculous actually. You all should be ashamed of yoyrselvss...Take a step away from be ego and open up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I, for one, can't wait for severe weather season to get here Wiz. I always enjoy reading your discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Wiz what does the surface winds look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 We get screwed alot with these so that's my guess why everyone is being quiet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Would be awesome to see some storms, can't wait for actual severe season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Severe season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Wiz melted.. I hear you bro. And following your posts on this event. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 This should be fun to track lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 I didn't look at details such as surface winds just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 They look nice on radar, but these usually seem to translate to 9 seconds of moderate rain and gusts to 14 mph up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 Slight risk not too far to our south for Wednesday. Perhaps we can get into the marginal risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 The 6z GFS is fairly unstable across CT 6z Thursday...of course there is an inversion to deal with but I suppose wind gusts of 40-50 mph are possible...maybe a shot at 55 somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Hey, wiz, fellow severe weather lover here. This threat does definitely look better than the last one (2/16) what with there being a lot more low-mid level instability in the vicinity (LI below 0, MLCAPE around 500J, though not quite in the MA area, rather, closer to NJ) so any storms that pop will probably bring quite a bit more lightning than the last batch of storms. If this was during the day, there might've even been a legit "severe" (well, as severe as storms can get in the SNE in late February) threat with all the shear and low-mid level winds, but, it's happening during the night, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 Hey, wiz, fellow severe weather lover here. This threat does definitely look better than the last one (2/16) what with there being a lot more low-mid level instability in the vicinity (LI below 0, MLCAPE around 500J, though not quite in the MA area, rather, closer to NJ) so any storms that pop will probably bring quite a bit more lightning than the last batch of storms. If this was during the day, there might've even been a legit "severe" (well, as severe as storms can get in the SNE in late February) threat with all the shear and low-mid level winds, but, it's happening during the night, so... The modeled instability parameters are fairly impressive for this time of year and definitely do appear higher than the last event. I was shocked to see the 6z GFS bring LI values just below zero into CT...this is an indication that we may develop some very weak surface instability which would certainly increase the threat for stronger winds mixing down. Given how this setup is more dynamically driven though I'm not sure having the setup happen in the day as opposed to overnight makes that much of a difference. Given the still lower sun angle and widespread clouds we likely wouldn't get much heating anyways and our warmth would come from WAA which looks pretty impressive moving into the overnight hours. If we can get a fine line to develop on the nose of that MLJ streak and have this coincide with an increasing instability there could be a few embedded strong wind gusts. I definitely agree we could see more lightning with this too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I guess a few lightning bolts and some wind are interesting About as exciting as 90% of our convective events in May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 I guess a few lightning bolts and some wind are interesting About as exciting as 90% of our convective events in May May is pretty much the "Spring Training" of severe weather season for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 May is pretty much the "Spring Training" of severe weather season for us. We have done pretty well with winter season thunderstorms the last 5-10 years. I wonder if there is a way to track that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 We have done pretty well with winter season thunderstorms the last 5-10 years. I wonder if there is a way to track that... That would actually be pretty cool to have that data available and for year round. Having such data (outside of just tornadoes/hail/winds) available would be huge for research and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 May is pretty much the "Spring Training" of severe weather season for us. Yep. Though this year looks quite a bit better than the past few, in terms of early starts. Not even March yet and we're already talking about severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 Yep. Though this year looks quite a bit better than the past few, in terms of early starts. Not eve March yet and we're already talking about severe weather. I hope to start working on a spring/summer outlook in the coming weeks, however, with my schedule between school/work that may not happen but I do believe we will see a very active severe weather season (from the Plans to the Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic and perhaps even in the Northeast. I think the season out west gets off to an early start as well. I don't think it will be 2011 active but it should be one of the more active seasons since 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 damn it the 12z GFS backed off on the MUcape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Looks interesting for Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I hope to start working on a spring/summer outlook in the coming weeks, however, with my schedule between school/work that may not happen but I do believe we will see a very active severe weather season (from the Plans to the Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic and perhaps even in the Northeast. I think the season out west gets off to an early start as well. I don't think it will be 2011 active but it should be one of the more active seasons since 2011. What are you thinking this year better or worse than last year? Although it doesn't take much to be better than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 What are you thinking this year better or worse than last year? Although it doesn't take much to be better than last year. I would have to think better. Typically strong Nino's have featured active seasons here, particularly when the Nino rapidly weakens. I'm hoping to get into an outlook shortly and could generate some better ideas then. I'm fairly confident though it's at least active across PA/NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 May is pretty much the "Spring Training" of severe weather season for us.unfortunately we never get out of single A ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 May is pretty much the "Spring Training" of severe weather season for us. unfortunately we never get out of single A ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 unfortunately we never get out of single A ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Big big winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 damn it the 12z GFS backed off on the MUcapedo you want to live in the mid west or deep south? you love severe wx so much just wondering? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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