MJO812 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Crappy winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It's absolutely ripping rain in bellmore right now. This is not winter type rains. This is harder then it rains in a lot of summer thunderstorms here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 CMC and GFS have zero snow for anyone in this subforum in the next 10 days. Good, that means I still have a shot at a single digit seasonal snowfall amount, after yesterday I'm at 9.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It's absolutely ripping rain in bellmore right now. This is not winter type rains. This is harder then it rains in a lot of summer thunderstorms here Just look at the KDIX radar. Very convective look. Lots of elevated instability. It's one of the reasons why the globals have somewhat backed off. Going to be some big winners and big losers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Euro is close at 174 and 180 with the overunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Good, that means I still have a shot at a single digit seasonal snowfall amount, after yesterday I'm at 9.7" you know you'll get an inch on April 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Euro is close at 174 and 180 with the overunning. Just 8 short days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Just look at the KDIX radar. Very convective look. Lots of elevated instability. It's one of the reasons why the globals have somewhat backed off. Going to be some big winners and big losers.This is not at all normal for February. Testament to the amount of heat and moisture being drawn north by the super Nino. We knew this was bound to happen sooner or later. And this will not be the last time either. Very wet early spring on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 you know you'll get an inch on April 10th Probably, but if that's all I get for the rest of the season I'll finish just a shade under 25% of my average seasonal snowfall. So I have that going for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Probably, but if that's all I get for the rest of the season I'll finish just a shade under 25% of my average seasonal snowfall. So I have that going for me... I have a feeling for some reason that we might get something in April, even if it's only a dusting I love April snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 April 19, 1983? Another Super El Nino year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I have a feeling for some reason that we might get something in April, even if it's only a dusting I love April snow Last year I got a little over an inch on April 15th. The year before the same around the 12th. Fairly common around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It was a fun winter. Sure, more snow would have been great, but at least we (or some of us) got the blizzard. While we're discussing models for next month, what do they say for next winter? I am well aware they don't go out that far, but the models' accuracy in even the medium range is as horrid as it would be for forecasting a snowstorm 10 months from now. (And 10 months from now is pretty much our next realistic shot at a worthwhile snowstorm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It was a fun winter. Sure, more snow would have been great, but at least we (or some of us) got the blizzard. While we're discussing models for next month, what do they say for next winter? I am well aware they don't go out that far, but the models' accuracy in even the medium range is as horrid as it would be for forecasting a snowstorm 10 months from now. (And 10 months from now is pretty much our next realistic shot at a worthwhile snowstorm). The long range GFS shows a nice miller B at hour 7,224 next December 20. Snow maps show a general 30-40 inch thumping for the entire area. Would make for a great white Christmas. There may be mixing issues along the coast though. Will have to monitor.Just me mocking the models not you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Last year I got a little over an inch on April 15th. The year before the same around the 12th. Fairly common around here. Only time recently for me was a couple years ago. That was just a dusting. April snow would be pretty amazing considering the season many have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 The long range GFS shows a nice miller B at hour 7,224 next December 20. Snow maps show a general 30-40 inch thumping for the entire area. Would make for a great white Christmas. There may be mixing issues along the coast though. Will have to monitor. Just me mocking the models not you. I hear you. Thought it was funny. Sadly, the models at hour 7,224 are about as accurate as they are at 72, particularly when it comes to East Coast snowstorms. It's sad that with all the technological developments we've made we have weather models that lag so far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I hear you. Thought it was funny. Sadly, the models at hour 7,224 are about as accurate as they are at 72, particularly when it comes to East Coast snowstorms. It's sad that with all the technological developments we've made we have weather models that lag so far behind. Yep. Exactly the point I was making. Just look at yesterday's GFS it had Orange County in a general 30-36 inch snowfall middle of next week, today it's a GLC. You sometimes wonder why you track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I hear you. Thought it was funny. Sadly, the models at hour 7,224 are about as accurate as they are at 72, particularly when it comes to East Coast snowstorms. It's sad that with all the technological developments we've made we have weather models that lag so far behind. The weather is that insanely complex. Even using Moores law (processor speed doubling every 2 years) it's going to be decades before we can accurately predict the weather past 72 hours. If ever!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Another small earthquake here about 15 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Yep. Exactly the point I was making. Just look at yesterday's GFS it had Orange County in a general 30-36 inch snowfall middle of next week, today it's a GLC. You sometimes wonder why you track.It could go back to a blizzard tomorrow again. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Another small earthquake here about 15 minutes agoMaybe the Ramapo fault is coming out of dormancy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Maybe the Ramapo fault is coming out of dormancy nothing showing up on earthquake sites but many again have felt it as its being posted on facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Had 1" on April 15, 2014 in Dobbs Ferry. Rain changed to snow as a cold front passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Had 1" on April 15, 2014 in Dobbs Ferry. Rain changed to snow as a cold front passed.I love it when snow and rain fight and snow wins. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Had 1" on April 15, 2014 in Dobbs Ferry. Rain changed to snow as a cold front passed. Yep, that's the one I was referring to. Really amazing stuff, considering it was the middle of April. I only got a dusting but that was pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Well I am already sick of all the rain. Enough already. Snow is nice, lots of rain is nasty and produces lots of icky mud. Hope this stuff lifts outta here soon and for a few weeks. Rather it be 50's and dry than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Yep, that's the one I was referring to. Really amazing stuff, considering it was the middle of April. I only got a dusting but that was pretty cool.It snowed pretty hard that night, so I'm surprised you only got a dusting. I had 1" in Dobbs Ferry and 0.5" in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn. There was also a late-March Nor'easter in 2014 that barely missed delivering significant snow; dry air and marginal temperatures limited it to a rain-snow mix. 2013-14 was an incredible winter for the area. Dobbs Ferry had 74" snowfall, led by 16" on Valentine's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Well I am already sick of all the rain. Enough already. Snow is nice, lots of rain is nasty and produces lots of icky mud. Hope this stuff lifts outta here soon and for a few weeks. Rather it be 50's and dry than this.Suck it up. Two days of rain all Winter. And you managed to pull out a severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 It snowed pretty hard that night, so I'm surprised you only got a dusting. I had 1" in Dobbs Ferry and 0.5" in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn. There was also a late-March Nor'easter in 2014 that barely missed delivering significant snow; dry air and marginal temperatures limited it to a rain-snow mix. 2013-14 was an incredible winter for the area. Dobbs Ferry had 74" snowfall, led by 16" on Valentine's Day. It is surprising, but it took a long time to stick. In fact, during the day was rain, and I think when I went to bed there was light rain with very very little flakes mixing in. It must have dropped like a rock overnight though, because man was it cold that morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 It is surprising, but it took a long time to stick. In fact, during the day was rain, and I think when I went to bed there was light rain with very very little flakes mixing in. It must have dropped like a rock overnight though, because man was it cold that morning.Had two mornings in the mid 20s in the middle of April 2014. Afternoon highs only reached the low 40s, which seemed weird with cherries and magnolias blooming. That was definitely a very memorable late-season wintry spell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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