CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 In NYC since records have been officially recorded since 1870 the average temperature during Met winter is 33.3 degrees and the average seasonal snowfall is 28.9 inches. In the last 30 years including this one, the average temperature during met winter is 35.8 and the average seasonal snowfall is 28.7 inches. This year in Central Park there has been 31.2 inches of snow 26.8 of which came in a single day and melted within a week. The average temperature has been 40.9 the second highest ever, more than 5 degrees above the 30 year norm and over 7 and half degrees above the historical norm. I'm just baffled that anyone in NYC can call this winter a B or better. Even against the historical norms, and if you want to pretend the snowfall was distributed evenly throughout the winter, there is no way this winter is anything better than a C and IMO that's being generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It's not over until metsfan gives up. The canary in the coal mine. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Well 99 was godawful...I remember it well it was the Womens World Cup and we had every unit of AC in the house on and even a house full of folks from the tropics were complaining about heat the likes of which they had never seen. God I hate hot weather. It was, 99 is also one of the years on the 11 sunspot cycle-88, 99, 10 were all roasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Cutter city on the GFS. Winter is over looks like! If it ain't over, it's close. The forecasted -NAO has gone poof, there's little to no cold air anywhere and the trough orientation argues for cutters. The euro through day 10 shows average to well above average temps with 2 cutters. Hopefully we can get a wet snow bomb somewhere (even poor patterns sometimes produce) But I'd say we're mostly done given the pattern which takes us to mid March where snowfall becomes climo difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 A wet bomb would do it. Wetbulb everywhere. 1 to 2 feet of heavy wet snow that sticks everywhere. I love those storms. Except for the power lines. March is tricky so we'll have to watch it. By the way I'm calling for a cool summer Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Euro has an overunning snowstorm for much of the northeast for March 3 event. Para is similiar. GFS cuts it way inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Typical progression coming off the El Nino would be for a very cool and damp Spring followed by a hot and dry Summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Euro has an overunning snowstorm for much of the northeast for March 3 event. Para is similiar. GFS cuts it way inland. Look at the 500mb. It's not even related to the big storm which slides off the Southeast coast. What you're looking at is a strong clipper from a Northern stream disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Look at the 500mb. It's not even related to the big storm which slides off the Southeast coast. What you're looking at is a strong clipper from a Northern stream disturbance. I never said it was associated with this storm. If the high can be further south, more places would be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Euro has an overunning snowstorm for much of the northeast for March 3 event. Para is similiar. GFS cuts it way inland. what's it going to overrun? 40 degree air? Plus it's holding back energy-a known Euro bias at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Typical progression coming off the El Nino would be for a very cool and damp Spring followed by a hot and dry Summer? 97-98 had a warm spring, but cooler summer. 09-10 on the other hand had a torch of a summer. I think climo favors warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I never said it was associated with this storm. If the high can be further south, more places would be in business. You said the GFS had a cutter. The Euro barely has a surface reflection with the storm you're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 what's it going to overrun? 40 degree air? Plus it's holding back energy-a known Euro bias at this range It's funny how people mention this. Para is similiar. Could be the bias but we are talking about 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 You said the GFS had a cutter. The Euro barely has a surface reflection with the storm you're talking about. GFS does have a cutter while the Euro and Euro para have a cutoff storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It's funny how people mention this. Para is similiar. Could be the bias but we are talking about 10 days out. doesn't really matter-zero cold air so even a good track would probably be a rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Euro has an overunning snowstorm for much of the northeast for March 3 event. Para is similiar. GFS cuts it way inland. Haven't we learned anything? (Not picking on you at all) watch this cut west of Chicago I'm ready for a nice warm March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 97-98 had a warm spring, but cooler summer. 09-10 on the other hand had a torch of a summer. I think climo favors warmer. I want to crush record coastal water temps this summer. We have a great starting point. That sets us up for tropical fun and severe weather at the coast Plenty of fun weather during the warm season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I want to crush record coastal water temps this summer. We have a great starting point. That sets us up for tropical fun and severe weather at the coast Plenty of fun weather during the warm season That I could see. We still have a +AMO and very little cold this year to cool temps. The blizzard in Jan churned things up a bit but that was awhile ago. Also, the MDR of the Atlantic is well above normal and that couple with a Nina should deliver the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 This winter was just a more extreme version of most of our snowfall coming in a short period. Many of our 2000's winters with near to above normal snowfall had shorter periods where most of our snowfall was focused. A wall to wall November to March snowfall season has been elusive since the 95-96 winter. And that is the primary reason that NYC hasn't been able to challenge the 95-96 season despite all the record snowfall since 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 97-98 had a warm spring, but cooler summer. 09-10 on the other hand had a torch of a summer. I think climo favors warmer. Not hard to call summers are much warmer these days, over the past 10 years most summers have been warmer than the 1981-2010 averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Haven't we learned anything? (Not picking on you at all) watch this cut west of Chicago I'm ready for a nice warm March The -AO doesn't favor a warm March like we've seen in the past. I'm guessing we'll alternate between warmer and colder spells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 That I could see. We still have a +AMO and very little cold this year to cool temps. The blizzard in Jan churned things up a bit but that was awhile ago. Also, the MDR of the Atlantic is well above normal and that couple with a Nina should deliver the goodsI hope I'm wrong because I hate the heat, but with ENSO switching to La Niña, and a possible -PDO developing (favors -PNA and +EPO), this summer could be a scourcher. JB seems to think the PDO is about to flip negative and the continued cooling Gulf of Alaska gives support to the North Pacific SSTAs changing. Something to keep an eye on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 We may not get a strong nina for next winter since the nino is slow in weakening which may help keep the summer from being as hot as the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I hope I'm wrong because I hate the heat, but with ENSO switching to La Niña, and a possible -PDO developing (favors -PNA and +EPO), this summer could be a scourcher. JB seems to think the PDO is about to flip negative and the continued cooling Gulf of Alaska gives support to the North Pacific SSTAs changing. Something to keep an eye on... We'll see if the January +PDO analog predictor gets the +PDO call for next winter correct again. All previous 8 Januaries with a +1.50 or greater like this year still had a +PDO the next winter. http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 GFS QPF forecast of 6-8 inches to our north from the parade of cutters over the next 10 days - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 i wonder if the parade of extremes will ever stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 i wonder if the parade of extremes will ever stop It's probably our new normal. Dr. Francis ties it together in this extended presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 CMC and GFS have zero snow for anyone in this subforum in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Look at the 500mb. It's not even related to the big storm which slides off the Southeast coast. What you're looking at is a strong clipper from a Northern stream disturbance. No that can't happen, we don't get good clippers anymore. Another reason this season rates a D (or worse) in my book and as good as the last couple have been they didn't rate above an A-. A couple of clippers, even if they only drop 1-3", add to the wintry appeal and raises the grade for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 No that can't happen, we don't get good clippers anymore. Another reason this season rates a D (or worse) in my book and as good as the last couple have been they didn't rate above an A-. A couple of clippers, even if they only drop 1-3", add to the wintry appeal and raises the grade for the season. and they help reinforce the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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