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The Last Hurrah for Winter? Late Winter/Early Spring Banter


dmillz25

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Bc it is an A for our area. You had a 2' snowstorm, 40" plus season and you went below zero. What more could you want to give this an A for our particular area?

Sustained snowpack, months averaging below normal, multiple moderate snowfalls.

This season doesn't hold a candle to 14-15, 13-14, or 10-11 when we had week after week of snowstorms, deep snow cover, and cold temperatures. A grading system has to take into account how "wintry" a winter is. This winter was a one-storm winter with one cold night; the rest of the season was a snowless torch featuring bare ground and days of 50s and 60s. How could this be an A grade?

I would grade this winter a C. In terms of pros, we had an incredible HECS with 24-30" areawide and multiple hours of blizzard conditions, and NYC did record its first subzero temperature since 1/1994. The blizzard and the 4-8" snowstorm in early February ensure that most coastal areas have had near average snowfall.

Cons include September-like warmth in December, the rapid meltdown of the blizzard, no sustained snowpack, repeated cutters in February after a progged favorable pattern, and no months with below normal temperatures. It rarely felt like deep winter this year, except for the blizzard and the day after, and the night below zero.

Grade pending: C (C- if March stinks, up to a B- if we have a great March, which I doubt...)

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C+/B- here. December sucked. on the northern edge of the blizz, still got 14 though and a few smaller events, but winter basically ended 2/10 or so with regard to snowfall. 3 week winter in that dept. No real cold locking in.

It seemed like winter might be getting going when we had the 4-8" storm in early February and the snow to rain event immediatwly after the Valentine's Day cold outbreak. A lot of mets were talking about a very favorable pattern for mid to late February with renewed cold air by the weekend of 2/28.

Unfortunately, the favorable pattern kept getting pushed back as we saw in dead ratter winters like 11-12. The post V-Day storm was more a cutter than expected SWFE, this storm cuts, and the weekend cold shot evaporates. Mostly due to the +NAO/Baffin Island vortex allowing storms to wind up well inland.

We knew this winter would be an uphill battle with a Super Nino. It's very rare to see extended wintry stretches as we had in 14-15/13-14 in such a strong +ENSO event with the raging STJ and high global temperatures. Luckily, this winter was not 97-98. Nor was it 72-73 or 1877-78 when NYC had less than 10" snowfall. But it certainly had features of those winters with the December warmth and lack of snow cover.

In my mind, this winter has been a hybrid of 57-58, 09-10, 97-98, and 82-83. Much of the extreme warmth of Dec 57/Dec 82. The turn to blocking via Kara Sea ridge as in Jan 58. One large blizzard in a sea of warmth like Feb 83 Megalopolis storm. And the overall extended warmth, especially in February, of 98. The one difference was the lack of interior snows. Places like VT had decent winters in 97-98 and 82-83, but have been shut out this year. Hence throwing in 09-10 which had above average snowfall on the coastal plain but much less in the interior...storms like 12/19/09 and 2/5/10 had much in common with this January's blizzard. Definitely a bunch of analogs contributed features to the 15-16 pattern.

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I'm fine with this winter. Can't be greedy when you get a 26 inch plus blizzard. Frankly, I'd take 1 such storm over 20 3-4 inch storms. Those do nothing for me.

At this point, though, it's pretty obvious this winter is over. I suppose there could always be a rogue storm, but let's face it: other than the one blizzard, nothing has come together for a snowstorm, and that's not likely to change now.

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