marsplex Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Euro weeklies show a strong signal for April to start out cold and potentially wintry. Snow in April you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Euro weeklies show a strong signal for April to start out cold and potentially wintry.This is April "cold", compared to average. This is not an arctic outbreak. Look at climo April norms for highs. If this even happens, given the models long range performance this past winter should give pause. You have no snowcover from here all the way into southern Canada where the air is coming from for one, you will have the equivalent of a September sun overhead and you're gaining daylight everyday. Whatever comes down out of Canada, is going to modify greatly by the time it gets here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 If things play out then we would see some major frost/freeze issues for early to mid April due to a much faster growing season this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Seasonal snowfall to date Binghamton: 22.7" Albany: 10.3" The climate has truly gone mad... That Albany # is the equivalent of NYC getting 3-4 inches for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 GEFS is still indicating a very active period beginning next week. The GEFS has been very consistent, and it makes perfect sens with the tanking EPO. My fear is that the blocking becomes so strong that the storm track becomes suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 This is April "cold", compared to average. This is not an arctic outbreak. Look at climo April norms for highs. If this even happens, given the models long range performance this past winter should give pause. You have no snowcover from here all the way into southern Canada where the air is coming from for one, you will have the equivalent of a September sun overhead and you're gaining daylight everyday. Whatever comes down out of Canada, is going to modify greatly by the time it gets here.... I never said arctic cold. I said cold and yes if the timing is right, it can snow in that airmass. EPS is also on board for the cold at least for 2-3 days. I would bet against snow but the airmass for the start of April is below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 GEFS is still indicating a very active period beginning next week. The GEFS has been very consistent, and it makes perfect sens with the tanking EPO. My fear is that the blocking becomes so strong that the storm track becomes suppressed. That would be something if the blocking shunts the south in April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 If there is measurable snow in parts of the NYC Metro Area, that would be a once in 4-6-year event based on the last 30 years. Since 1985, there were 8 events that brought measurable snow to portions of the NYC Metro Area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 This is April "cold", compared to average. This is not an arctic outbreak. Look at climo April norms for highs. If this even happens, given the models long range performance this past winter should give pause. You have no snowcover from here all the way into southern Canada where the air is coming from for one, you will have the equivalent of a September sun overhead and you're gaining daylight everyday. Whatever comes down out of Canada, is going to modify greatly by the time it gets here.... Looks like there is gonna be lots of widespread snow cover put down during the next two weeks. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016032206/gfs_asnow_us_41.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 That 4/15-4/16/14 looks like another under-measured event in NYC from the pictures. It's sad since it should have gone in the record books as the heaviest latest snow at NYC since 1983 .Notice how all the surrounding sites had measurable snow. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/04/snow-nyc-mid-april-ugh.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 That 4/15-4/16/14 looks like another under-measured event in NYC from the pictures. It's sad since it should have gone in the record books as the heaviest latest snow at NYC since 1983 .Notice how all the surrounding sites had measurable snow. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/04/snow-nyc-mid-april-ugh.html I agree. I drove into the Bronx on the morning of the 16th, there were patches of snow on the ground. Where I live in southern Westchester, we had a coating, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 I never said arctic cold. I said cold and yes if the timing is right, it can snow in that airmass. EPS is also on board for the cold at least for 2-3 days. I would bet against snow but the airmass for the start of April is below normal. Would you rather have a sunny springlike day for the first weekend of the baseball season or a cold rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 That 4/15-4/16/14 looks like another under-measured event in NYC from the pictures. It's sad since it should have gone in the record books as the heaviest latest snow at NYC since 1983 .Notice how all the surrounding sites had measurable snow. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/04/snow-nyc-mid-april-ugh.html I can go back to January 2000 when CP reported 5.5" for the day but light snow and sleet fell for hours after midnight...I picked up another half inch in the early hours while Central Park reported a trace...That storm should have been a six inch event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 That 4/15-4/16/14 looks like another under-measured event in NYC from the pictures. It's sad since it should have gone in the record books as the heaviest latest snow at NYC since 1983 .Notice how all the surrounding sites had measurable snow. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/04/snow-nyc-mid-april-ugh.html Best April event we had in awhile at that time, and since then of course. I only got a trace on the grass and colder surfaces, but it was nice. I had shorts on the day before this storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Would you rather have a sunny springlike day for the first weekend of the baseball season or a cold rain? Cold snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Cold snow If there were a way to get a warm snow I would be all in. 70F and accumulating snow would be my dream weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 The EPS looks like it has many days with highs in the 40's and 50's with lows in the 30's inland and 40's closer to the coast. Chilly by April standards but nothing crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 this month looked cold at this range too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 this month looked cold at this range too Don't worry, summer is almost here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/03/21/the-european-model-had-a-horrendous-forecast-for-weekend-east-coast-snowstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Weeklies have a good pattern through late march. Develops a negative nao from week 2 onward Say hello to a -AO for the first half of March. Looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/03/21/the-european-model-had-a-horrendous-forecast-for-weekend-east-coast-snowstorm/ It's a good piece. One should never rely on a single model or ensemble suite. Moreover, hemispheric skill scores are averages. There can be substantial variability on a regional or sub-regional basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Weeklies have a good pattern through late march. Develops a negative nao from week 2 onward Say hello to a -AO for the first half of March. Looks great. So you think the negative EPO on the Euro and GEFS is bull****? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 It's a good piece. One should never rely on a single model or ensemble suite. Moreover, hemispheric skill scores are averages. There can be substantial variability on a regional or sub-regional basis. Seems like the EPS usually follows the op. It hasnt been good at all with storms this winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 About April 06, we may start the longest string of BN days in a year. 4/06---4/21 look almost entirely BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 So you think the negative EPO on the Euro and GEFS is bull****?no but our anomalies will probably be muted compared to nw of us and the cold probably won't last that long given atlantic ridging and the epo's lowering correlation for us this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 bluewave, on 22 Mar 2016 - 08:48 AM, said: That 4/15-4/16/14 looks like another under-measured event in NYC from the pictures. It's sad since it should have gone in the record books as the heaviest latest snow at NYC since 1983 .Notice how all the surrounding sites had measurable snow. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/04/snow-nyc-mid-april-ugh.html Yeah rain changed to snow here at around 11pm on the 15th and continued for a couple of hours....measured 0.6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 About April 06, we may start the longest string of BN days in a year. 4/06---4/21 look almost entirely BN. Highly doubt that. All the cold shots have been transient 2-4 day events. The forecasted -Epo is in fantasy range of the ensembles and it could be muted by the time they're in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 About April 06, we may start the longest string of BN days in a year. 4/06---4/21 look almost entirely BN. Wasnt the same thing said for most of February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 2nd alarm brush fire on staten island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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