BxEngine Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Im not rifling through 52 pages for a non event...the fact that there were 52 pages is proof enough. I was told by PB I would get accumulating snow at night and several post bashing the gfs solely because it was showing little or nothing. This is nothing new here Then stop posting nonsense if you arent interested in helping clean up what youre complaining about. Whining about other unnamed posts while telling a mod you are too lazy to look up these posts as proof only shows that you arent complaining for the sake of our community, but to hear yourself and jump on your soapbox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 It's tough to know if the GFS is actually scoring a win or it's a broken clock is right twice a day scenario with its progressive bias. Saw post in the NE forum showing the gfs off by 1000 miles with the closed 500 mb low in the midwest on a 72 hour forecast 2 days before the storm- (forecast hour 120 and verification was off by 1000 miles at initialization 48 hours before the storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The nam never showed a big storm. That was a big red flag right there. Nam usually has a run or two with insane snow amounts. To be fair, there was that one 6z run on Sunday morning that gave a decent chunk of LI over a foot of snow. Then the following RGEM got a bit wetter. That's when I actually got pretty excited for a SECS event for LI considering that was a "trend" very close to the event. So that was a pretty annoying let-down. It was still nice to salvage a 2.6" snow, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 In any event, if the Summer goes down the road that many are predicting, then Warlock will suddenly become the most active poster in the forum Are we talking lots of heat? Im also looking forward to that. My wish is for heat waves and little rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 True but its not impossible. Right but it is remote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The UKIE was disappointingly bad as well. It had big almost Euro-like solutions, only colder. I have to admit the UKIE being as generally "consistent" as it was in showing a SECS event for the coast made me bite a bit. We also had a trend for a more negatively tilted shortwave with last-minute phasing that seemed to gain momentum as we got close to the event...then that trend rapidly revered and we were left with a positively tilted, sheared out shortwave. I never bought those tucked in EPS members, since the EPS has too many members and always has members way overamplified. It's not a reliable ensemble package for individual storms anymore. Plus, the initial broadness of the trough plus the lead energy never really supported a tucked-in bomb. The idea of a tucked in rain coast/snow inland scenario never made sense given the pattern IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The rain isn't far away. If the blocking ends up being just a tad weaker, we flood. it is pretty foolish to think we won't at least have one more cool down, although it looks short lived. At least the GEFS continues to trend wetter. Obviously this goes way out in time and is highly subject to change but I wouldn't be banking on a dry next two weeks. Saturday looks mostly dry but Sunday could be stormy. The PARA Euro was unsettled for Sunday and Monday. In any event, the GEPS mean looks active. Very active pattern setting up if the Southeast ridge relaxes just enough to keep the boundary overhead. Not what a lot of people want to hear but the pattern screams well above average rainfall. stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Maybe we just expect too much from the models beyond 3-4 days. It's probably fairly typical for a cutter track to be off by this much at 96 hrs. But we just don't notice since its still rain tracking over NJ or back into the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Maybe we just expect too much from the models beyond 3-4 days. It's probably fairly typical for a cutter track to be off by this much at 96 hrs. But we just don't notice since its still rain tracking over NJ or back into the Great Lakes. old.png NEW.png The intensity was the bigger miss than the track. But that's life next to the Atlantic I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The intensity was the bigger miss than the track. But that's life next to the Atlantic I guess. The intensity forecast at 96 hrs was based on a faster phase and neg tilt. Its only about a 24 hr miss since it will deepen rapidly over Canada instead of near the BM. But that's all the difference in the world for us between a light event and a blizzard. The storm eventually gets down near 950 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 stop When the guidance points towards an active pattern I'm going to continue posting it everytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 it's been so active every nyc asos is below normal for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The intensity forecast at 96 hrs was based on a faster phase and neg tilt. Its only about a 24 hr miss since it will deepen rapidly over Canada instead of near the BM. But that's all the difference in the world for us between a light event and a blizzard. The storm eventually gets down near 950 mb. GZ_PN_048_0000.gif I could buy a miss of the intensity if an OP run times a phase perfectly. But we had ensemble runs where virtually every member was 980s or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 it's been so active every nyc asos is below normal for the month The heavier rains have been well NW of the NYC ASOS sites the last two months. I really don't care what EWR, NYC or LGA are showing. I care about where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 mt pocono is -1.57" for march so far. are you in some magical corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Forky is one of the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 it's been so active every nyc asos is below normal for the month It's been this way for months. Every long range forecast shows prolific amounts of rain that never pans out the way it shows it and probably never will again. Let down after let down and I don't know why he keeps posting the 384 total precip. That's a bigger crapshoot than craps. This whole El Niño thing as failed big time and will probably continue to do so. Still waiting for my 3 inches of rain I was promised 2 weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 mt pocono is -1.57" for march so far. are you in some magical corridor? I'm not going to sit here and argue with you over this crap. March has been slow, and I acknowledged that it could end up that way if the SE riding held firm, which it did. But that pattern is over now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 It's been this way for months. Every long range forecast shows prolific amounts of rain that never pans out the way it shows it and probably never will again. Let down after let down and I don't know why he keeps posting the 384 total precip. That's a bigger crapshoot than craps. This whole El Niño thing as failed big time and will probably continue to do so. Still waiting for my 3 inches of rain I was promised 2 weeks ago I posted one 384hr GFS map weeks ago. The image he quoted automatically updated to today's 12z GFS. Calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Massive negative epo on eps towards april lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 21, 2016 Author Share Posted March 21, 2016 Massive negative epo on eps towards april lolI was like holy sh!t when I seen it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Massive negative epo on eps towards april lol What does that mean for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 21, 2016 Author Share Posted March 21, 2016 What does that mean for us?Colder than normal temps with snow chances. Looks like the NAO wants to go negative as well around that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 21, 2016 Author Share Posted March 21, 2016 Or cold rain chances lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Massive negative epo on eps towards april lol yeah, the EPS is really on a roll lately. Plan on a raging +EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 yeah, the EPS is really on a roll lately. Plan on a raging +EPO The interesting thing with the EPS is that they are often spot on with the 500 mb teleconnection patterns but sometimes off with individual storm tracks. It's easier to see the larger scale details like where the ridges and troughs will be, but storms tracks can be off by a few hundred miles and not impact the teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 yeah, the EPS is really on a roll lately. Plan on a raging +EPO Gefs is similiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Seasonal snowfall to date Binghamton: 22.7" Albany: 10.3" The climate has truly gone mad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Euro weeklies show a strong signal for April to start out cold and potentially wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Seasonal Snowfall 2015-16 WinterThrough March 21st, 2016 / About 11:00 PMJFK: 41.4" Islip: 41.2"Newark: 36.4"LGA: 36.2" NWS Upton: 35.8"Central Park: 32.1"Bridgeport: 27.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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