IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The Euro has been having a rough go of it on storm track forecasts. My guess is that the unusually strong northern branch of the jet for an El Nino is giving it a hard time. All the record heavy rain in the Pacific NW is more like a La Nina when the Euro can struggle. Even last January it struggled with the clipper being too far west like this event. Another famous miss in a strong Pac Jet was the March 2009 blizzard which never materialized. We can also throw in the Boxing Day miss in a La Nina pattern. I fully admit that I fell for the Euro/EPS combo hook, line and sinker. Sometimes pocket Aces lose to Jack/Deuce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 21, 2016 Author Share Posted March 21, 2016 How can you blame people for getting excited when you had the GGEM/UKMET/ECMWF and EPS all showing a big storm three days out? Most people pulled the plug on Saturday. A few weenies held on till the end and went down with the ship. Who's blaming anything on anyone? I'm just stating a fact. I was one of the ones who was excited as well. Hopefully that EPO drop can bring us one last chance of snow, if not oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I fully admit that I fell for the Euro/EPS combo hook, line and sinker. Sometimes pocket Aces lose to Jack/Deuce. It seldom misses with strong southern stream or tropical influences like Sandy or Joaquin. I am not sure what the problem can be sometimes with the northern stream. Other times like the February 2013 Blizzard in the split flow it nailed it 5 days out and never wavered. So it leaves forecasters in a tricky position since it can be inconsistent for some events and absolutely nail the storm another when the northern branch is involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The Euro has been having a rough go of it on storm track forecasts. My guess is that the unusually strong northern branch of the jet for an El Nino is giving it a hard time. All the record heavy rain in the Pacific NW is more like a La Nina when the Euro can struggle. Even last January it incorrectly had the clipper blizzard too far west like this event. Another famous miss in a strong Pac Jet was the March 2009 blizzard which never materialized. We can also throw in the Boxing Day miss in a La Nina pattern. Dobbs Ferry had 10" in March 2009 and parts of LI got a foot so I'm not sure we can say it never materialized. It was a pretty good storm north and east of the City and allowed March snowfall and seasonal snowfall to exceed average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 It's obvious that this year we cannot trust models on temps or any storm whether it's rain or snow that is more than 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 It seldom misses with strong southern stream or tropical influences like Sandy or Joaquin. I am not sure what the problem can be sometimes with the northern stream. Other times like the February 2013 Blizzard in the split flow it nailed it 5 days out and never wavered. So it leaves forecasters in a tricky position since it can be inconsistent for some events and absolutely nail the storm another when the northern branch is involved. I bit when it showed today's storm for 3 consecutive runs. But not seeing the other models jump on board and then the euro backing off, I bailed Saturday as well. Was happy to get a bit of an over performer here in the end with close to 3 inches on the colder surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Dobbs Ferry had 10" in March 2009 and parts of LI got a foot so I'm not sure we can say it never materialized. It was a pretty good storm north and east of the City and allowed March snowfall and seasonal snowfall to exceed average. Was that the 3/1/09 storm? We got 12" here. Overnight storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I can't think of a single model that did really well with this storm. At one point, all the models were too wet and too dry. The GFS probably did the best out of the major guidance with the Euro/GGEM and UKMET doing the worst. Major fail by the EPS which used to be legendary at the 72-96hr range. EPS had many members hugging the coast and even inland on Wednesday. I was more worried about this tracking close to the coast than this going OTS. The pattern at the time wasnt bad for a big snowstorm. I remember many people though that inland areas had the best chance of seeing a lot of snow. Lol this storm was progged to be a big snowstorm for us 3 days prior, so much time wasted model watching for a minor event I stayed up until 3 am the whole week watching the Euro. What a disaster. How can you blame people for getting excited when you had the GGEM/UKMET/ECMWF and EPS all showing a big storm three days out? Once the Euro showed a big storm, the other models followed it. I really thought we had something going on . In the past, the Euro use to lock onto solutions 4-5 days out but since the upgrade, it has sucked. It seldom misses with strong southern stream or tropical influences like Sandy or Joaquin. I am not sure what the problem can be sometimes with the northern stream. Other times like the February 2013 Blizzard in the split flow it nailed it 5 days out and never wavered. So it leaves forecasters in a tricky position since it can be inconsistent for some events and absolutely nail the storm another when the northern branch is involved. Actually during the the boxing day storm threat, the Euro and GFS were the first two models to show a big blizzard. They both lost it but then brought it back. GFS brought it back on Christmas Eve and Euro on Christmas morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 It's obvious that this year we cannot trust models on temps or any storm whether it's rain or snow that is more than 3 days out. With the very warm and displaced gulf stream, god help us this summer if there's model mayhem with a Cat 5 coming up the coast within 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I bit when it showed today's storm for 3 consecutive runs. But not seeing the other models jump on board and then the euro backing off, I bailed Saturday as well. Was happy to get a bit of an over performer here in the end with close to 3 inches on the colder surfacesIj uh? This was the Navgem at 114 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 LOL at staying up til 3am for a car topper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 uh? This was the Navgem at 114 hours. sure it did, but others did not, the NAM, GFS and some others were never that impressed from the get go. Having a low score model or 2 on your side hardly counts. CMC was the absolute worst showing big snows right til go time. Just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Dobbs Ferry had 10" in March 2009 and parts of LI got a foot so I'm not sure we can say it never materialized. It was a pretty good storm north and east of the City and allowed March snowfall and seasonal snowfall to exceed average. Not that storm. The Euro was showing a major snowstorm long range for around 3/17/09 which never happened. It backed off as we got closer to the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 sure it did, but others did not, the NAM, GFS and some others were never that impressed from the get go. Having a low score model or 2 on your side hardly counts. CMC was the absolute worst showing big snows right til go time. Just awful. What other models never showed a big storm? The Ukie, GGEM,CMC ensembles,Navgem, JMA, French model, Euro, EPS, DGEX all had a huge storm. The american models were never impressed with this storm. The american models beat out the foreign models. Also, I stayed up because I love tracking storms and it did look like we had a good chance of a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 What other models never showed a big storm? The Ukie, GGEM,CMC ensembles,Navgem, JMA, French model, Euro, EPS, DGEX all had a huge storm. The american models were never impressed with this storm. The american models beat out the foreign models. Also, I stayed up because I love tracking storms and it did look like we had a good chance of a big storm. Me too, but I ain't staying up til 2 am let alone 3 am for anything. I set an alarm once...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 What other models never showed a big storm? The Ukie, GGEM,CMC ensembles,Navgem, JMA, French model, Euro, EPS, DGEX all had a huge storm. The american models were never impressed with this storm. The american models beat out the foreign models. Also, I stayed up because I love tracking storms and it did look like we had a good chance of a big storm. It's tough to know if the GFS is actually scoring a win or it's a broken clock is right twice a day scenario with its progressive bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 It's tough to know if the GFS is actually scoring a win or it's a broken clock is right twice a day scenario with its progressive bias. The nam never showed a big storm. That was a big red flag right there. Nam usually has a run or two with insane snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The nam never showed a big storm. That was a big red flag right there. Nam usually has a run or two with insane snow amounts. We narrowly missed two blizzards this month not due to the warmth as you would have expected, but suppression of the storm track with too strong a 50/50. Euro blizzard run weaker more northerly 50/50 less suppression Stronger further south 50/50 more suppression trough neg tilt too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Any more snow chances in the long range??If you look at climo, once past March 21st, the chances for accumulating snow in the metro area drops like a rock with every passing day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 If you look at climo, once past March 21st, the chances for accumulating snow in the metro area drops like a rock with every passing day.... True but its not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 If you look at climo, once past March 21st, the chances for accumulating snow in the metro area drops like a rock with every passing day.... Yeah, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Really the chances of significant snow plummet after President's Day. That's the date that I always pic as the end of the snow season around here. Of course, that doesn't mean it can't snow after that date. You just have so many things working against you that it rarely works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 In any event, if the Summer goes down the road that many are predicting, then Warlock will suddenly become the most active poster in the forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 If you look at climo, once past March 21st, the chances for accumulating snow in the metro area drops like a rock with every passing day.... years with at least one inch of snow from March 21st going forward... 21st...4 22nd..6 or more 23rd...2 24th...3 25th...1 26th...1 27th...1 28th...2 29th...5 or more 30th...1 31st...1 01st...1 02nd..2 03rd...1 04th...3 05th...2 06th...2 07th...3 08th...2 09th...5 10th...0 11th...0 12th...3 13th...1 14th...1 15th...1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 We narrowly missed two blizzards this month not due to the warmth as you would have expected, but suppression of the storm track with too strong a 50/50. Euro blizzard run weaker more northerly 50/50 less suppression OLD.png Stronger further south 50/50 more suppression trough neg tilt too late NEW.png I believe we also missed 2 in February for similar reasons. We could have had 3-5 MEC's this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Nam and gfs led the way and euro followed but as per ususl most would rather cling to the snowier solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Nam and gfs led the way and euro followed but as per ususl most would rather cling to the snowier solutions Still waiting on that PM showing me the posts. I mean, why else would you keep posting this besides wanting a better forum, right? Help me out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Im not rifling through 52 pages for a non event...the fact that there were 52 pages is proof enough. I was told by PB I would get accumulating snow at night and several post bashing the gfs solely because it was showing little or nothing. This is nothing new here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Im not rifling through 52 pages for a non event...the fact that there were 52 pages is proof enough. I was told by PB I would get accumulating snow at night and several post bashing the gfs solely because it was showing little or nothing. This is nothing new here LOL...52 pages for 1-2 inches of snow in late March. I do agree to some extent. The warning signs were out on this one early and some folks either missed them or chose not to see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 In any event, if the Summer goes down the road that many are predicting, then Warlock will suddenly become the most active poster in the forum True dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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