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The Last Hurrah for Winter? Late Winter/Early Spring Banter


dmillz25

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What a shame we are missing a big storm. The emotions this week were insane. At first people thought winter was over. Then when the models were showing a big storm, many people were worried about the west trend and being too warm for some areas and now a lot of people are upset it might go out to sea. I mean it looked very favorable for a big storm. What a crappy winter except for the big blizzard that some areas got.

Also, if the foreign models bail tonight, what a big fail by the upgraded Euro and EPS.

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What a shame we are missing a big storm. The emotions this week were insane. At first people thought winter was over. Then when the models were showing a big storm, many people were worried about the west trend and being too warm for some areas and now a lot of people are upset it might go out to sea. I mean it looked very favorable for a big storm. What a crappy winter except for the big blizzard that some areas got.

Also, if the foreign models bail tonight, what a big fail by the upgraded Euro and EPS.

It's not really a big fail. The storm is still two days away. A fail would be blowing it completely. Models change. It happens. People live and die by every model then become disappointed. The GFS was never really on board and that should have been a red flag. If you have full model consensus then MAYBE you can start to believe it 5 days out but the way this winter has been going you can't be certain about anything until the 24 hour window.
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What a shame we are missing a big storm. The emotions this week were insane. At first people thought winter was over. Then when the models were showing a big storm, many people were worried about the west trend and being too warm for some areas and now a lot of people are upset it might go out to sea. I mean it looked very favorable for a big storm. What a crappy winter except for the big blizzard that some areas got.

Also, if the foreign models bail tonight, what a big fail by the upgraded Euro and EPS.

 

I can't recall many winter storms the past 2 years the euro got right.

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Remember when the Euro use to nail storms 4 days in advance? Upgrades ftl.

 

From Mt Holly NWS.

 

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

IF THE GEFS ENDS UP CORRECT IN CONSTANTLY FCSTG EAST OF ALL OTHER

MODELS THE PAST FEW DAYS INCLUDING THE SREF, EPS...IT WILL BE

QUITE NOTEWORTHY

 

 

NOAA announces significant investment in next generation of supercomputers Increased supercomputing capacity will improve accuracy of weather forecasts

January 5, 2015

iStock_000001027803_300.jpg

NOAA's supercomputer upgrades will provide more timely, accurate weather forecasts. (Credit: istockphoto.com)

Today, NOAA announced the next phase in the agency’s efforts to increase supercomputing capacity to provide more timely, accurate, reliable, and detailed forecasts. By October 2015, the capacity of each of NOAA’s two operational supercomputers will jump to 2.5 petaflops, for a total of 5 petaflops – a nearly tenfold increase from the current capacity.

 

Ahead of this upgrade, each of the two operational supercomputers will first more than triple their current capacity later this month (to at least 0.776 petaflops for a total capacity of 1.552 petaflops). With this larger capacity, NOAA’s National Weather Service in January will begin running an upgraded version of theGlobal Forecast System (GFS) with greater resolution that extends further out in time – the new GFS will increase resolution from 27km to 13km out to 10 days and 55km to 33km for 11 to 16 days. In addition, theGlobal Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) will be upgraded by increasing the number of vertical levels from 42 to 64 and increasing the horizontal resolution from 55km to 27km out to eight days and 70km to 33km from days nine to 16.

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