coastalplainsnowman Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 It was so pleasant out today that for a minute I thought it was Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 Monroe, LA is the 4th 1000 year rainfall event with this super El Nino. 4 events of this magnitude for one El Nino may be a new record. https://mobile.twitter.com/DRmetwatch/status/708080920759132160/photo/1 http://eros.usgs.gov/views-news/Death-Valley-Flood https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/thousand-year-deluge-south-carolina http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/aep_storm_analysis/AEP_2015_spring_OK.pdf 2 others in Texas 200-500 year events http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/aep_storm_analysis/AEP_TX_201510.pdf http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/aep_storm_analysis/AEP_TX_201505.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 This has probably been the greatest era for winter snow combined with summer heat since the last ice age ended. That is quite the inference...with about less than 1% of the period having reliable live observations on file to substantiate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 I'm sure the last interglacial was sick as temps were higher then the current. I feel a blazingly humid summer incoming with such a high baseline for SST. Should be a good thunderstorm season for the coast You may well be right; but these things can change on a dime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 75 degrees. Only 30 degrees above the normal high for the day. I really believe there should be grades lower than F for this winter.. It was an awful winter; but since the amount of snow that falls is still the most important element in the equation...the dreadful nature is mitigated significantly. We've had 41.7" here...so I still have to give it a C...even though all other elements (cold, snow cover, having numerous snow events) all fall into the F or sub-F domain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 that would be ironic if you had a flood on your wedding day....I got married during the super wet summer of 2000. My husband and I were happy for 20 years...then we met... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 I will issue a challenge for anyone to come up with a similar 15-16 year stretch during the current Holocene period of 11'500 years. We know the temps are the warmest of this epoch. So previous heavy snow periods of the Holocene were colder. But it may very well have happened before this current interglacial. That's hard to say...we know categorically that the Medieval Warm Period rivals this brief warm interlude that we are currently in the midst of. Moreover, this region we are in (the anomalously snowy one) constitutes a few hundred square miles...less than .01% of the land surface of the globe...so we then move into the realm of cherry picking localized activity to sustain broad and infirm conclusions. Lastly, this 2001 - 2015 period is far from as warm as one would imagine. It *seems* warm because the last 10 months have been warm...and, since this is rather fresh in the mind of the readers, you seize upon it for utilitarian purposes (i.e. to give credence to your argument). The plain truth is that the last 15 years generally saw a wholesale retreat from some of the warming that we witnessed in the 1970 - 2000 interlude...although the last 10 months *do* indeed show some definitive movement in the other direction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 Lastly, this 2001 - 2015 period is far from as warm as one would imagine. It *seems* warm because the last 10 months have been warm...and, since this is rather fresh in the mind of the readers, you seize upon it for utilitarian purposes (i.e. to give credence to your argument). The plain truth is that the last 15 years generally saw a wholesale retreat from some of the warming that we witnessed in the 1970 - 2000 interlude...although the last 10 months *do* indeed show some definitive movement in the other direction... For example, from February 2013 to March 2015...a 25 month span...things were rather cold...and that is an interval 2.5 times longer than the current anomalously warm one that followed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 I will issue a challenge for anyone to come up with a similar 15-16 year stretch during the current Holocene period of 11'500 years. We know the temps are the warmest of this epoch. So previous heavy snow periods of the Holocene were colder. But it may very well have happened before this current interglacial when the earth was in other interglacial warming periods. Before the gauntlet can be throw down, there first must be something that warrants challenging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 I will issue a challenge for anyone to come up with a similar 15-16 year stretch during the current Holocene period of 11'500 years. We know the temps are the warmest of this epoch. So previous heavy snow periods of the Holocene were colder. But it may very well have happened before this current interglacial when the earth was in other interglacial warming periods. This is probably the warmest period now of the last 2000 years. I guess that beyond that time is open to more speculation. But it may not be much a stretch to suggest that this could possibly be the warmest of the Holocene period. Marcott.png I believe I effectively deconstructed this line of reasoning several times in the past...though, as a busy woman...I am loathe to revisit it for the umpteenth time. The readers can refer to the linked threads below for some of my insights on this matter... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42206-record-breaking-cold-january-3-4-7-8-discussion-observations/page-11#entry2616204 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45681--/page-23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 I will issue a challenge for anyone to come up with a similar 15-16 year stretch during the current Holocene period of 11'500 years. We know the temps are the warmest of this epoch. So previous heavy snow periods of the Holocene were colder. But it may very well have happened before this current interglacial when the earth was in other interglacial warming periods. That's hard to say...we know categorically that the Medieval Warm Period rivals this brief warm interlude that we are currently in the midst of. Moreover, this region we are in (the anomalously snowy one) constitutes a few hundred square miles...less than .01% of the land surface of the globe...so we then move into the realm of cherry picking localized activity to sustain broad and infirm conclusions. Lastly, this 2001 - 2015 period is far from as warm as one would imagine. It *seems* warm because the last 10 months have been warm...and, since this is rather fresh in the mind of the readers, you seize upon it for utilitarian purposes (i.e. to give credence to your argument). The plain truth is that the last 15 years generally saw a wholesale retreat from some of the warming that we witnessed in the 1970 - 2000 interlude...although the last 10 months *do* indeed show some definitive movement in the other direction... I bet that the people that inhabited places like Mesa Verde etc. would disagree with the current period being warmer than what they experienced. That one eliminated an entire civilization, this has just been frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 For Ant wind 23 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 19 to 25 inches possible. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around -6. Windy, with a southwest wind 29 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible. Sunday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 4. Breezy, with a south southeast wind 26 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 25 to 31 inches possible. Sunday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around -6. Windy, with a west wind 46 to 50 mph, with gusts as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 32 to 38 inches possible. Monday Snow. High near -1. Windy, with a west wind 34 to 43 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible. Monday Night Snow showers. Low around -8. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 For Ant wind 23 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 19 to 25 inches possible. TonightSnow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around -6. Windy, with a southwest wind 29 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible. SundaySnow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 4. Breezy, with a south southeast wind 26 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 25 to 31 inches possible. Sunday NightSnow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around -6. Windy, with a west wind 46 to 50 mph, with gusts as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 32 to 38 inches possible. MondaySnow. High near -1. Windy, with a west wind 34 to 43 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible. Monday NightSnow showers. Low around -8. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible. good heavens where is this winter opus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 good heavens where is this winter opus? Just guessing but the higher elevations of mt Rainer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 Yet another indication of the seasonal transition that is underway: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 Only 119-155" forecasted over the next 3 days. Idk why Ant would pick Barrow when he could move there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 Though he is likely out conquering the world and no longer has time for this forum, I would very much like to see Nikolai unbanned. His writing had an enormous influence on me as he was most brilliant person to ever grace this board... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 12, 2016 Author Share Posted March 12, 2016 I really hope we get a 2010-11 redux next winter. Just need a legit -NAO which I also hope we get. Also I hope we get a good December snowfall. Its been years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 I really hope we get a 2010-11 redux next winter. Just need a legit -NAO which I also hope we get. Also I hope we get a good December snowfall. Its been years https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gX1hZzMeyEw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 Already have weeds popping up on my front lawn and saw some trees with pink blossoms today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Grass is definitely greening up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Hope it snows soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Dandelion already...wtf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Hoping we can hold the +PDO to go along with whatever the ENSO decides to do next winter. I am not a big fan of the -PDO/+EPO tag team that resulted in the only 4 dud winters since 2000-2001. We need help from the +PDO/-EPO especially when the NAO and AO negative intervals have become more transient since March 2013. Only 4 dud winters since 2000-01 composite 500.png sst.png There are some very early signs that we may be going into another -PDO period. It's going to have to be watched closely this spring and summer to see if the North Pacific SST changes continue. A solid La Niña event looks like a very good bet right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 What's the correlation between -PDO/+PDO with La Niña and winters? A +PDO is better correct? And I also assume the strength of the La Niña is crucial as well? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 The PDO actually increased again this February. All previous winters with a January into February PDO this strong held the +PDO into the next winter. But its hard to tell this early whether the pattern will continue to work. The PDO was the strongest in 2015 since the 1980's and was one of the most positive years on record. One thing that we can see right now is that the subsurface in the Pacific is cooling at a slower pace than we saw at this point in 1998. So I am going to respect the spring forecast barrier and see how the ENSO evolves during the summer into the fall. PDO.png Take a look at the latest anomaly map here: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.3.10.2016.gif Note how cool the entire North Pacific and GOA is becoming. Also, you are starting to loose the warmth along the west coasts of the United States and Canada. If you loop it from back in late fall to the present, then you can really see the shifting anomalies. Very early in the game, but you can see the possible beginnings of a -PDO regime starting to show up now. Something to track over the next several months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 GEFS has only 1 lakes cutter http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip06186.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 There will be additional accumulations of snow in this area before summer inevitably rears its ugly head once and for all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Yeah but that's just straight up no good. Thankfully it's far enough out that it has just about 0 chance of happening the way it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 GFS shows snow on Easter but that is way far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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