Brian5671 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 The pattern was really sniffed out by the GEFS about two weeks ago which is pretty amazing. I'm really hoping that the moisture ends up sinking South some as we get closer. Otherwise it's going to be pretty boring here. 12z Euro and CMC only have about .50 of an inch for us next 10 days---wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 12z Euro and CMC only have about .50 of an inch for us next 10 days---wow. The GEFS ensembles are wetter. It's not the same type of rains that the plains are going to see but it will be damp at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Upgraded 12z Euro has 20 inch torrential rainfall jackpot NE of Houston this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Upgraded 12z Euro has 20 inch torrential rainfall jackpot NE of Houston this week. Going to be some historic flooding in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Going to be some historic flooding in places. I posted the 1 year rainfall in the March thread which is already off the charts. Very tough time for flooding especially near river and creek basins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 -9.13 SD is just another ridiculous example of the kinds of extremes that we have been seeing in the 2000's. 500H-8.gif Plenty of snow pretty far S in the Sierra Madres Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Looks ugly. Models consistent on that for days now. This is the same pattern essentially that set up last May here in TX, but 200 miles east of that. There could be flooding back here around I-35 from Dallas south too because of what the upper low does. Each day that lingers, there will be numerous slow moving storms that develop. The Euro has 5"+ of rain in spots around here from that feature. Tonight could be a nasty night for severe weather in my part of Texas also-enhanced risk from here east to Houston, down to San Antonio and Corpus Christi. There have already been some nasty cells along the Rio Grande, and the sun's been out all day here to destabilize the atmosphere. It's plenty humid-the high here was 83 and dewpoints are in the mid-upper 60s. The main risk looks to be hail/high wind, but there should be a few tornadoes as well. This morning had a couple of tornadoes further west in the Hill Country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Gfs says winter might not be over yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Gfs says winter might not be over yet it is pretty foolish to think we won't at least have one more cool down, although it looks short lived. At least the GEFS continues to trend wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Gfs says winter might not be over yet Let me guess, 10 days away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 In every sport except for basketball, defense wins championships. OMG I cannot believe you said (and probably believe) that. A team's anticipatory winning percentage for hockey...or baseball...or football...will always be reflected by the formula { a x a } / { ( a x a ) + ( b x b ) } where a = goals for (or runs or points) and b = goals against (or runs or points)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 it is pretty foolish to think we won't at least have one more cool down, although it looks short lived. At least the GEFS continues to trend wetter. it's got about 2 inches for us for the next 15 days, that's about average really. It's a warm pattern outside of a 1-2 day cool down around 3/19 or so as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 it's got about 2 inches for us for the next 15 days, that's about average really. It's a warm pattern outside of a 1-2 day cool down around 3/19 or so as well.But the mean has been trending wetter the last few runs. Some runs the last few days had well under an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 OMG I cannot believe you said (and probably believe) that. A team's anticipatory winning percentage for hockey...or baseball...or football...will always be reflected by the formula { a x a } / { ( a x a ) + ( b x b ) } where a = goals for (or runs or points) and b = goals against (or runs or points)... In other words, if a team averages 4 goals scored per game and averages 3 goals against per game, they can expect to win 64% of their games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Storms going crazy west of here over the Hill Country now. Several with warnings for large hail/wind, and one tornado warning. This could be a pretty wild severe weather night here in Austin once these progress east. Some of these storms already have produced big hail closer to the Rio Grande, and conditions are even better for severe out this way. Tennis ball sized hail indicated on radar in some of these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Is there potential for another 70+ this month after Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Is there potential for another 70+ this month after Thursday? I would say yes. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2016030812&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=0 Loop it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Gfs says winter might not be over yet....For Fort Kent, Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 I would say yes. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2016030812&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=0 Loop it Ugh no hot st pats day please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Ugh no hot st pats day pleaseThis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Some spots in LA approaching 10 inches of rain per radar estimates with flash flooding occurring. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA538 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0435 AM FLASH FLOOD MINDEN 32.62N 93.28W03/09/2016 WEBSTER LA EMERGENCY MNGRALL MAJOR ROADWAYS ON THE SOUTH END OF WEBSTER PARISHARE FLOODED AND CLOSED. TRAVEL IS VERY DIFFICULT EVENWHERE IT IS POSSIBLE. FLOOD WATERS ARE DEEP ENOUGH TOSWEEP A VEHICLE OFF THE ROAD. SOME OF THESE ROADS HAVEWASHED OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 quick shot of rain Thursday night and then nice weekend on tap with temps over 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 quick shot of rain Thursday night and then nice weekend on tap with temps over 60 Saturday looks mostly dry but Sunday could be stormy. The PARA Euro was unsettled for Sunday and Monday. In any event, the GEPS mean looks active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Ugh no hot st pats day pleaseAnd if we can get a cold shot on 3/19 that would be great. It's much easier keeping all the beer outside and using mother natures refrigeration that having to drag out all the coolers and get all that ice. A little help please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 And if we can get a cold shot on 3/19 that would be great. It's much easier keeping all the beer outside and using mother natures refrigeration that having to drag out all the coolers and get all that ice. A little help please. The 20th is pearl rivers. Ill take 55 and sunny plz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Cold shot near the 19th??? 500mb heights are progged to be +240meters No clear cut BN day till April 05 showing up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Cold shot near the 19th??? 500mb heights are progged to be +240meters No clear cut BN day till April 05 showing up now.A guy can dream can't he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 The 20th is pearl rivers. Ill take 55 and sunny plz.My oldest son is going there this year, look for the young guy wearing green, hungover with Jameson in him... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Saturday looks mostly dry but Sunday could be stormy. The PARA Euro was unsettled for Sunday and Monday. In any event, the GEPS mean looks active. 2-3"over two weeks in march is average for us, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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