UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 This thread should be changed to winters dead... Spring banter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 This thread should be changed to winters dead... Spring banter lol yep-who's ready for the torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Won't be much longer. Still raining here at a decent clip. Should pick up around 0.10" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Still raining here at a decent clip. Should pick up around 0.10" total. Quite the downpour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Canadian is always one to show up the party with strippers and whiskey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Felt like Spring today. Great night to star gaze currently. Clear skies and a new moon. The new moon is next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Does anybody (maybe Isotherm?) have an active link to this product? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 If a post gets deleted, its not an invite to post it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Looking at the very last hour on the gfs,would lead me to believe we will cool down again sometime after March 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 It was so nice again this afternoon after the drizzle session. Things are really drying out even though we've had a fair bit of rain, the wind has surely helped. Gonna get out for a good mt bike ride tomorrow and I just know it's gonna feel sooooo good I really need to hear that winter is truly on its last legs so I can get the winter wheels/tires off my car and go play. The pavement is warm already and I'm itchin' to go rip some back roads at night but don't want to waste my snows that way. Whadday'all think, next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Navgem still a big hit The first time I ever *heard* of the Navy model (NOGAPS) was with the storm 15 years ago (March 5, 2001). While all the other models had a biblical snow event for the area, NOGAPS had a minor snow event for Jersey and NYC and a large (but not HECS) event for Long Island. Turns out, NOGAPS was right, as NYC was in the 3 -5 inch range and much of Suffolk County picked up 12 -16 inches of snow over 48 hours. Great storm in Port Jeff with 13.3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The first time I ever *heard* of the Navy model (NOGAPS) was with the storm 15 years ago (March 5, 2001). While all the other models had a biblical snow event for the area, NOGAPS had a minor snow event for Jersey and NYC and a large (but not HECS) event for Long Island. Turns out, NOGAPS was right, as NYC was in the 3 -5 inch range and much of Suffolk County picked up 12 -16 inches of snow over 48 hours. Great storm in Port Jeff with 13.3 inches. This winter whenever it's been very far NW it's ended up correct if the other guidance was suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The first system comes through into the TENNESSEE Valley then redevelops on then OBX You can see at 72 hours how far North on the EPS the individuals are compared to its 0z run at 84. All the guidance today showed weaker confluence in SE Canada The fact that their is no blocking should allow that vortex to release . You have a good ridge axis that extends through Boise and that argues for heights falls on the EC and lastly you have an ever present WAR that has been undermodeled at 120 hours all year. Now look at the indies at 96 at OBX is further W than at 0Z at 108 you can see the push W. We will know in another 24 hours if that trend continues. The key is the confluence. Nothing is set in stone I think it was SnowGoose who made a salient point about it being March and climatologicaly suppressive confluence is a lot less likely then in the dead of winter (i.e. mid January). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I think it was SnowGoose who made a salient point about it being March and climatologicaly suppressive confluence is a lot less likely then in the dead of winter (i.e. mid January). OMG my memory has been sooooo good lately: Anytime models indicate a system in March being suppressed by a PV vort or strong high you need to be wary, because in general the later you get in the winter the less likely that sort of thing happens. March 2014 was a rarity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 If navgen were to be right, that's a blizzard for good chunk of long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I forgot who said it but someone once mentioned on this forum said they remembered the NOGAPS was unstoppable in the 97-98 winter. The belief was that strong El Niño somehow counteracted its usual progressive bias. It's been surprisingly good this winter too on major systems Might have been the ORH WXman...he's pretty much The Dean of Climatology...at least as I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 If navgem were to be right, that's a blizzard for good chunk of long island.that would be a blizzard from Newark up to Danbury and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 that would be a blizzard from Newark up to Danbury and east NAVGEM is only 8-12" for most here... Southern jersey and Deleware get pounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 that would be a blizzard from Newark up to Danbury and east Interesting with these late winter March / early April events...assuming sufficient cold air is in place at sea level...the tendency is often for the heaviest snowfall to be towards the northeast section of the CWA...with lesser amounts as one heads southwest bound....like the aforementioned 3/5/2001 event...or that 4/6/1982 storm or 3/11/1888...and probably several others that will take a few minutes to come to mind. Its likely rooted in the overall eastbound repositioning of the Hudson Bay High...moving from over the middle of the Bay in January towards central Quebec around late February & March. Colder air pools over eastern New England & the Canadien Maritimes and will often be drawn down the East Coast on strong north to north east winds. Moreover the polar jet tends to exit at its most southerly point of the year; the ocean is at its coldest so changeovers to rain become much less likely than in December & January along the coast. Lastly, there is a good deal more blocking invariably present over Eastern Canada & New England just based on the typical semi permanent alignment of pressure fields at this time of the year. Thus storms that would zoom off into the Atlantic Shipping Lanes earlier in the winter are slowed to a crawl; often dumping copious amounts of snow over Long Island and New England...with lesser amounts towards Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Interesting with these late winter March / early April events...assuming sufficient cold air is in place at sea level...the tendency is often for the heaviest snowfall to be towards the northeast section of the CWA...with lesser amounts as one heads southwest bound....like the aforementioned 3/5/2001 event...or that 4/6/1982 storm or 3/11/1888... Of course, 3/11/1888 was mostly rain over the Twin Forks of Long Island and SE New England...and a mixed bag in Boston with about 9 inches of slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Huh!!!!!???? Your calling "blizzard conditions" based off a precip depiction map with isobars... The NAVGEM is 3-5" for me and NOT BLIZZARD conditions... 3 sustained hours of blizzard criteria? Not even close my mistake your only getting lighter winds but NYC is a blizzard on that run. Let's just see how we look by Wednesday night honestly because these models suck right nowSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I remember in the old days; places like Albany almost always came in with 3 x as much snow as any spot on Long Island for the season...Avoca (Scranton) always had at least twice as much...something is afoot. Sussex and Warren County New Jersey seemed to jackpot storm after storm...seems like a lifetime ago. You would leave LI and NYC and the ground was bare...by the time you got out on RT 80 there were some patches of snow here & there...as you turned NW up RT 23...there was more and more as you went through Wayne...then you got to the Charlotteburg Reservoir (elevation 760 feet) and there was like 10 inches on the ground and by the time you got to High Point it was park closed due to snow with two feet well before (and beneath) the obelisk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 $20 says the NAVGEM is OTS at 00z and the bickering about whether it shows a blizzard or not will end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I remember in the old days; places like Albany almost always came in with 3 x as much snow as any spot on Long Island for the season...Avoca (Scranton) always had at least twice as much...something is afoot. The issues I've always argued is that in the grand scheme of "weather" as a planet... We have but a small sample size...these "patterns" could come in full circles over hundreds or thousands of years, and we Would have no idea, especially if seasonal patterns don't shift on a decade type basis but a larger scale such as hundreds of years... I've always said that if our plantes weather history were a football field, starting at one goal line, and present day is the other goal line, we have only recorded a few blades of grass in the grand scheme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 On a brighter note, nam may bring some severe weather in for midweeks soaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 If you extrapolate the kma it's a huge hit. You can tell just by looking at the 500mb map here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 If you extrapolate the kma it's a huge hit. You can tell just by looking at the 500mb map here. Keep your day job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The issues I've always argued is that in the grand scheme of "weather" as a planet... We have but a small sample size...these "patterns" could come in full circles over hundreds or thousands of years, and we Would have no idea, especially if seasonal patterns don't shift on a decade type basis but a larger scale such as hundreds of years... I've always said that if our plantes weather history were a football field, starting at one goal line, and present day is the other goal line, we have only recorded a few blades of grass in the grand scheme They have about 100 - 125 years of halfway decent records for the Eastern part of the nation...the Long Island came into existence about 21,000 years ago when you had the last glacial retreat...so yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 They have about 100 - 125 years of halfway decent records for the Eastern part of the nation...the Long Island came into existence about 21,000 years ago when you had the last glacial retreat...so yeah. That was always my argument against global warming, how can u scientifically convince me of something that's happening, when your sample size is 200 years of recorded data out of 6 Billion in-recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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