The Last Hurrah for Winter? Late Winter/Early Spring Banter

[gravitylover]

I'm already there.

[JerseyWx]

Looking at the models this Winter

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

The CA did much better for JF than OND from the August forecast.

 

 

 

 

[Isotherm]

The CA did much better for JF than OND from the August forecast.

 

JF.gif

 

cahgt_anom.4.gif

 

OND.gif

 

cahgt_anom.1.gif

 

 

Trough in the East in the means Jan/Feb; clear reversal from the December pattern, though unfortunately, surface temperatures weren't that cold for February. This hurt most people's long term forecasts. The major flaw this year has been the lack of -NAO, otherwise, the winter pattern evolution/progression generally occurred as expected.

 

In examining the H5 Jan-Feb patterns for the other strong/super Nino years, one can see that the closest analog in terms of the GOAK low placement was 1958. But February was much different due to the absence of -NAO this year. The other super Nino years generally featured much higher heights over the Northeast US (and thus warmer Jan-Febs than we saw this year), and lower heights in the Arctic. Maybe we can end up with similar snowfall to 1958 if NYC sees another event or two.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

Trough in the East in the means Jan/Feb; clear reversal from the December pattern, though unfortunately, surface temperatures weren't that cold for February. This hurt most people's long term forecasts. The major flaw this year has been the lack of -NAO, otherwise, the winter pattern evolution/progression generally occurred as expected.

 

In examining the H5 Jan-Feb patterns for the other strong/super Nino years, one can see that the closest analog in terms of the GOAK low placement was 1958. But February was much different due to the absence of -NAO this year. The other super Nino years generally featured much higher heights over the Northeast US (and thus warmer Jan-Febs than we saw this year), and lower heights in the Arctic. Maybe we can end up with similar snowfall to 1958 if NYC sees another event or two.

 

 

 

It's interesting how dramatically the NAO and EPO reversed during 2013 into early 2016 from the previous 3 years.

 

Almost looks like some type of synchronized yet unnamed North Atlantic and North Pacific oscillation.

 

A very nice research topic for the climate journals.

 

+NAO /-EPO

 

 

-NAO/+EPO

 

[Brian5671]

Around March, 2013 is when the cold pool of water started to appear S of Greenland, that seems to coincide with the mainly +NAO since then....

[NEG NAO]

Around March, 2013 is when the cold pool of water started to appear S of Greenland, that seems to coincide with the mainly +NAO since then....

caused by melting ice in Greenland discharging fresh water into the nearby North Atlantic.

[bluewave]

caused by melting ice in Greenland discharging fresh water into the nearby North Atlantic.

 

I hear that talked about in the scientific community, but the cooling came after the the NAO turned more positive

with stronger winds and more storms in that region. The SST's were at record warm levels there in the years

before 2013 when the NAO had been more negative with warm high pressure dominating. The SST's followed

the changes in the circulation pattern.

[marsplex]

I'm terrified by the idea of a cold wet April

[marsplex]

ill just pretend this will be the case

 

[CIK62]

There is basically no significantly BN days predicted after  March 8, for the duration of the month.    Do not see the wild potential temperature swings associated with March.   No opportunity for this cold season to redeem itself. 

In addition, next 8-12 months look primarily AN, to go along with the past 11 months.

Accuweather has below normal temps after the 18th.  but this clashes with the weeklies which have heights 100's of meters above normal over and near us.

[WeatherFeen2000]

Does anyone know Central Park February temperature compared to average so far?

[CIK62]

Does anyone know Central Park February temperature compared to average so far?

We are +1.6 and about to add about 0.80 to that over the next 48 hours.

[Brian5671]

already at our forecat high for the day at 10:45 am.  50 here presntly

[Brian5671]

We are +1.6 and about to add about 0.80 to that over the next 48 hours.

Tomorrow looks to really torch, so we could be close to +3

[Guest Pamela]

Seasonal Snowfall 2015-16 Winter
Through February 28th, 2016 / About 10:00 AM

JFK: 39.5"

Islip: 38.0"
Newark: 34.7"
LGA: 34.4"

NWS Upton: 33.1"
Central Park: 31.2"
Bridgeport: 24.9"

[Guest Pamela]

Seasonal Snowfall 2015-16 Winter
Through February 28th, 2016 / About 10:00 AM

 

Caribou: 58.5"

Portland 41.0"

NYC JFK: 39.5"

Islip, NY: 38.0"

Allentown: 35.9"

Newark: 34.7"

NYC LGA: 34.4"

Washington Dulles: 33.0"

Baltimore: 32.6"

Worcester: 31.7"

NYC Central Park: 31.2"

Philadelphia: 26.2"

Boston: 25.4"

Bridgeport: 24.9"

Concord, NH: 23.8"

Wilmington, DE: 22.7"

Washington National: 21.9"

Binghamton: 21.7"

Atlantic City: 20.6"

Providence: 19.4"

Hartford: 17.1"

Richmond: 13.9"

Scranton: 11.9"

Albany: 10.3"

Norfolk, VA: 5.0"

[EastonSN+]

Seasonal Snowfall 2015-16 Winter

Through February 28th, 2016 / About 10:00 AM

JFK: 39.5"

Islip: 38.0"

Newark: 34.7"

LGA: 34.4"

NWS Upton: 33.1"

Central Park: 31.2"

Bridgeport: 24.9"

Thanks!

I know I keep harping on this but when looking at Bridgeport please add approx. 20% more snow for the actual total. They ALWAYS under report and is a complete misrepresentation of the area.

[Guest Pamela]

Although the numbers out of Albany & Scranton & Concord are shocking...the most anomalous might be the one out of Broome County Airport...located just under the stratosphere at 1590 feet...a mere 21.7".

[Guest Pamela]

Thanks!

I know I keep harping on this but when looking at Bridgeport please add approx. 20% more snow for the actual total. They ALWAYS under report and is a complete misrepresentation of the area.

 

Sikorsky Field used to report terribly low (I am just 15 miles from the Airport)...they have been doing better in recent years...but you may very well have a point.  Their long term average should be about 35 inches...but because of years of underreporting, it reads several inches less.

[wthrmn654]

There a Nws/ noaa website with live current to date snow totals. You can look at single snow events or you can look at each years seasonal snow amounts storm by storm.

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowfall/

[forkyfork]

it's nice to get the snow without it ever really feeling like winter (except for like 5 days)

[Stormlover74]

Almost 60 today, bring on spring!!

[SnoSki14]

There is basically no significantly BN days predicted after March 8, for the duration of the month. Do not see the wild potential temperature swings associated with March. No opportunity for this cold season to redeem itself.

In addition, next 8-12 months look primarily AN, to go along with the past 11 months.

Accuweather has below normal temps after the 18th. but this clashes with the weeklies which have heights 100's of meters above normal over and near us.

It's hard to get BN temps when the globe is on fire.

[Rjay]

Out of the last 18 post in the storm thread I've deleted 10 of them. Get a grip guys. The quality is way down.

[Brian5671]

56 and sunny here...just awesome out.   Time to mail this one in....bring on the warmth!

[rgwp96]

Although the numbers out of Albany & Scranton & Concord are shocking...the most anomalous might be the one out of Broome County Airport...located just under the stratosphere at 1590 feet...a mere 21.7".

What about high point nj . 1800 feet up and only 17 inches so far

[Guest Pamela]

What about high point nj . 1800 feet up and only 17 inches so far

 

I guess they average about 60" annually....17/60 = 28.3%...but The Broome averages about 90"...so 21.7/90 = 24.1%...so BGM wins this contest of attrition...race to the bottom...what ever you want to call it.

[MJO812]

Summer sucks

That is all

[pazzo83]

Summer rules.