IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Your the only person that likes that Oh well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Wish there was a Hour 264 on the Euro -better yet an hour 252 that Banana High look to the north and west is close on this one at 240 and a system to the south which looks like it will exit off the lower mid atlantic coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Wish there was a Hour 264 on the Euro - that Banana High look to the north and west is close on this one at 240 The only problem here on paper is that you have a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest which is kicking the ridge axis further East than ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The Euro split the energy. It has a kicker coming down through the Northern Plains day 7-8 which helps to kick this system OTS, however it does eventually phase with another southern stream SW day 10. The Euro has become so abysmal in the long range this winter, operational and EPS, I don't trust a damn thing it shows and neither should anyone else. Just a horrible track record long range this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The Euro has become so abysmal in the long range this winter, operational and EPS, I don't trust a damn thing it shows and neither should anyone else. Just a horrible track record long range this year As I said in the other thread, too much energy involved. If the system phases too late it's probably going OTS and if it phases too soon it's coming inland, with no block to push it East or force a redevelopment. I supposed we could thread the needle with a track close enough to the coast, but even then you would be dealing with a retreating high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The Euro has become so abysmal in the long range this winter, operational and EPS, I don't trust a damn thing it shows and neither should anyone else. Just a horrible track record long range this year Which model would you trust ? The 12Z Canadian was the 1st to suggest the storm track for whatever reason anyone wants to suggest is being suppresed later next week and now the Euro is showing a similar scenario. Makes sense since the MJO is entering phase 8 - the AO is going towards a more negative state later next week and the NAO is heading towards Neutral - in other words the pattern is changing again - we have had alot of volatility this winter with quick changes....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Pattern gets better after the cutter. Winter is far from over. Time for snowman to come in here and tell me its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Wish there was a Hour 264 on the Euro -better yet an hour 252 that Banana High look to the north and west is close on this one at 240 and a system to the south which looks like it will exit off the lower mid atlantic coast Cool...another day 10 threat! Smh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Cool...another day 10 threat! Smh.... I'd love to hear about how you can get a miller B from a 500mb low over the TN Valley with no blocking to the NE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I'd love to hear about how you can get a miller B from a 500mb low over the TN Valley with no blocking to the NE....You cant that I am aware of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 You cant that I am aware of. I didn't think so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I didn't think so....A displaced PV can cause a system to redevelop like a Miller B but I dont see a block on that map convoluting the pattern in any way, shape, or form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Eps has a coastal for March 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 as hard as it is to mention snow,this system looks like it has 1 more trick up it's sleeve.and it looks like we might get a period of light snow tonight.currently we have a disturbance rounding the base and spreading rain over the metro and expanding.goes to snow tonight with the cold air already filtering in.temp has crashed 10 degrees in literally 2 hours too.currently 42/33f.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Eps says what warm temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Eps says what warm temps? I see you're back to humping the Euro. How'd that work out for you for the last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I see you're back to humping the Euro. How'd that work out for you for the last storm? When do I ever hump it? Im the last one to do so. I guess we cant post weather related stuff on a weather forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 When do I ever hump it? Im the last one to do so. I guess we cant post weather related stuff on a weather forum. Always confrontational, I'm only assuming tho based off your response... The ignore feature has worked wonders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I'll take 1 more bomb and time for the Severe and Hurricane seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 When do I ever hump it? Im the last one to do so. I guess we cant post weather related stuff on a weather forum. Last week you were saying how terrible the Euro was because it was the furthest West while the GFS was East. I am not picking on you, but I clearly remember posting about people always leap to the model that shows what they want, and that verification scores mean nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Even the 18Z GFS is suppressing the storm track next week -most models have the storms further south next week - cutter pattern is nearing its end 50 - 75 miles further south with the track and the Metro would be having another Blizzard - strong Banana HP north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Nice looking high to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Even the 18Z GFS is suppressing the storm track next week -most models have the storms further south next week - cutter pattern is nearing its end 50 - 75 miles further south with the track and the Metro would be having another Blizzard - strong Banana HP north and west nice to look at, but it's an "18z" seven days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 nice to look at, but it's an "18z" seven days out Who cares if its an 18z. Its a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 nice to look at, but it's an "18z" seven days out that makes sense - especially since the Euro and Canadian from this afternoon trended south ............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Who cares if its an 18z. Its a model. should remind him it was the 18Z GFS a week out that first had the Blizzard solution last month........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 13/14 was a long duration snowpack. Mid January to late March here, longer in some of the woods where I mt bike. I'm terrible at remembering specifics but I want to say I had 70+ days straight imby. excellent post and it applies more or less up here too...maybe 02-03 and 04-05 pretty close for us anyways but I was thinking of this the other day...intense periods of winter weather but little in the way of seasonal duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 13/14 was a long duration snowpack. Mid January to late March here, longer in some of the woods where I mt bike. I'm terrible at remembering specifics but I want to say I had 70+ days straight imby. last year too-1/20 give or take straight through the end of March-very rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 The thing about 13-14 was before the Valentine's Day Storm we already had a decent snowpack here. Then we got 16 inches and it was just incredible how deep the snow got. Literally looked like trenches. March that year had many misses, so while the pack did last, it really didn't get added to. Last year was very good too, it piled up slowly with smaller events and because of the February cold snap it froze solid. Then you had March which was cold, and had more small storms, therefore allowing the pack to last long. Amazing this time last year compared to now though. Ground is completely bare now, while last year it would have been bitter cold and snow all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 13/14 was a long duration snowpack. Mid January to late March here, longer in some of the woods where I mt bike. I'm terrible at remembering specifics but I want to say I had 70+ days straight imby. Quite possible. We had an inch or more from 1/23 - 3/10/14 and at least a trace from 1/22 to 3/19. That's 57 days with at least a trace. Presuming you had more than a trace through that period (and beyond) and if you kept some of the snow from the 1/2/14 storm (we did not) it's easily 70 days. For 2015 we had 2 or more inches on the ground from 1/24 - 3/16 and at least a trace from 1/24 to 4/2, which has got to be some kind of record on the tail end (we had 11" total of snowfall after 3/20). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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