EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 What upsets me is we go fron a predominantly coastal track to cutter. My poor inland friends cannot get a good pattern to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 What upsets me is we go fron a predominantly coastal track to cutter. My poor inland friends cannot get a good pattern to develop. The interior folks here need a coastal hugger. Something that tracks just offshore and then over Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 What upsets me is we go fron a predominantly coastal track to cutter. My poor inland friends cannot get a good pattern to develop. Been a long time since we had a multiple cutter track-next week makes 3 in a row. Not sure anything even close to a coastal track brings the goods anyway, there is little to no cold air anywhere. Even yesterday's Midwest special was barely cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Been a long time since we had a multiple cutter track-next week makes 3 in a row. Not sure anything even close to a coastal track brings the goods anyway, there is little to no cold air anywhere. Even yesterday's Midwest special was barely cold enough for snow. The models are really good these days at picking up long range threats. The ensembles are mostly cutters. Blame the lack of blocking. The best we can do the rest of the way is get a well timed system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Been a long time since we had a multiple cutter track-next week makes 3 in a row. Not sure anything even close to a coastal track brings the goods anyway, there is little to no cold air anywhere. Even yesterday's Midwest special was barely cold enough for snow. There would be cold air next week if we did get a coastal. Problem is that none of the models show that except the EPS yesterday. The EPS had a lot of members showing that yesterday and now it's gone. The overrunning is also gone. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The models are really good these days at picking up long range threats. The ensembles are mostly cutters. Blame the lack of blocking. The best we can do the rest of the way is get a well timed system. Agree. Maybe one of these storms in March will hit us. There is going to be a clipper coming down after next weeks storm. Watch this storm miss us also lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Agree. Maybe one of these storms in March will hit us. There is going to be a clipper coming down after next weeks storm. Watch this storm miss us also lol The clipper is a threat to Eastern areas. Those always favor Long Island and New England more than NJ and NYC. The train of storms is what you want to see. It's typical for a strong Nino and why many thought the Winter would be backloaded, but the lack of blocking has completely caused everything else to **** the bed. Unless something changes quickly, snow season is probably over for the majority here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The clipper is a threat to Eastern areas. Those always favor Long Island and New England more than NJ and NYC. The train of storms is what you want to see. It's typical for a strong Nino and why many thought the Winter would be backloaded, but the lack of blocking has completely caused everything else to **** the bed. Unless something changes quickly, snow season is probably over for the majority here. Agree which is depressing. All winter we have been hearing of a back loaded winter. So far, nothing has happened. I got 30 inches in January and 7 inches this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Agree which is depressing. All winter we have been hearing of a back loaded winter. So far, nothing has happened. I got 30 inches in January and 7 inches this month. Consider yourself lucky. At least you're going to finish close to average. I am on pace to finish about 40% below my seasonal average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Second Week in March from the 6th - 12th will be the next chance for accumulating snow in NYC Metro - the MJO is now forecasted to move along the border of phase 7 and 8 and into the COD beginning the second week around the 6th.Using the ECMF product for that - see link below. Remember we have had some of our biggest snowstorms while the MJO was in the COD.One being the Jan 23rd Blizzard. In addition there are indications that the AO will be going into a more negative phase that week with more blocking over Greenland with the NAO moving close to neutral with the PNA remaining positive. All of these factors in combination will help suppress the active storm track and prevent cutters after next week. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Consider yourself lucky. At least you're going to finish close to average. I am on pace to finish about 40% below my seasonal average. and some well N and W are at 10-25% of yearly averages and going nowhere soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Boston 74 inches behind last year I think they have a shot at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Second Week in March from the 6th - 12th will be the next chance for accumulating snow in NYC Metro - the MJO is now forecasted to move along the border of phase 7 and 8 and into the COD beginning the second week around the 6th.Using the ECMF product for that - see link below. Remember we have had some of our biggest snowstorms while the MJO was in the COD.One being the Jan 23rd Blizzard. In addition there are indications that the AO will be going into a more negative phase that week with more blocking over Greenland with the NAO moving close to neutral with the PNA remaining positive. All of these factors in combination will help suppress the active storm track and prevent cutters after next week. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml that all looks great, but it's predicated on the AO being negative-AO/NAO can be fickle and 2 weeks is a long time-they could be raging positive by the time we get to 3/6 and even the MJO was forecast to be in 8 right now and instead we're stuck in 7....too many moving parts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 that all looks great, but it's predicated on the AO being negative-AO/NAO can be fickle and 2 weeks is a long time-they could be raging positive by the time we get to 3/6 and even the MJO was forecast to be in 8 right now and instead we're stuck in 7....too many moving parts here. Whole idea is to suppress the storm track and prevent the cutters - the current pattern we are in is not going to last forever because of all the volatility we have experienced in the patterns this winter - there is going to be at least one more opportunity to enjoy a colder stormier pattern for a week or 2 before that changes again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Consider yourself lucky. At least you're going to finish close to average. I am on pace to finish about 40% below my seasonal average. Well I am going to finish about 10 inches above average but still, one storm isn't enough for me even though it was a record breaking storm. Second Week in March from the 6th - 12th will be the next chance for accumulating snow in NYC Metro - the MJO is now forecasted to move along the border of phase 7 and 8 and into the COD beginning the second week around the 6th.Using the ECMF product for that - see link below. Remember we have had some of our biggest snowstorms while the MJO was in the COD.One being the Jan 23rd Blizzard. In addition there are indications that the AO will be going into a more negative phase that week with more blocking over Greenland with the NAO moving close to neutral with the PNA remaining positive. All of these factors in combination will help suppress the active storm track and prevent cutters after next week. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml Next timeframe to watch and possibly the last one of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Boston 74 inches behind last year I think they have a shot at it It's at least a close competition so far with Boston, NYC 31.2 Boston 25.4. If we use JFK's totals this year, game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 This winter was just a more extreme yversion of most of our snowfall coming in a short period. Many of our 2000's winters with near to above normal snowfall had shorter periods where most of our snowfall was focused. A wall to wall November to March snowfall season has been elusive since the 95-96 winter. And that is the primary reason that NYC hasn't been able to challenge the 95-96 season despite all the record snowfall since 2000. excellent post and it applies more or less up here too...maybe 02-03 and 04-05 pretty close for us anyways but I was thinking of this the other day...intense periods of winter weather but little in the way of seasonal duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 What upsets me is we go fron a predominantly coastal track to cutter. My poor inland friends cannot get a good pattern to develop.Appreciate your compassion. We snow lovers have felt a huge snow famine this winter. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 12z Canadian wants to start suppressing the storm track earlier then other models later next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 12z Canadian wants to start suppressing the storm track earlier then other models later next week Because the trough stays positive until the energy is already OTS, not because blocking forced it South. And, it's the Canadian. Might as well post the DGEX next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Because the trough stays positive until the energy is already OTS, not because blocking forced it South. And, it's the Canadian. Might as well post the DGEX next. The expert has spoken...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The expert has spoken...... I'm not an expert about anything.... however you posted that the GGEM was suppressed implying blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Speaking of the DGEX :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The DGEX actually looks realistic-big wound up cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 LeT's get the rain and cutters out of the way and then get a warm dry spring and summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Speaking of the DGEX :weenie: Your the only person that likes that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Speaking of the DGEX :weenie: Too bad you weren't down here last Memorial Day and Halloween. Record or near-record flooding around Austin both times, and devastating flash flooding on many of the creeks and rivers that flow down from the Hill Country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I'm not an expert about anything.... however you posted that the GGEM was suppressed implying blocking. your witness Boss- the 12Z Euro has now gone to the suppressed solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 NOW YOU ROOT ON THE WAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 your witness Boss- the 12Z Euro has now gone to the suppressed solution The Euro split the energy. It has a kicker coming down through the Northern Plains day 7-8 which helps to kick this system OTS, however it does eventually phase with another southern stream SW day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.