MJO812 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Next weekend's storm is trending OTS because the western ridge/+PNA is getting attacked by El Niño with the STJ crashing into California. The ridge deamplifies and there's a northern branch kicker dropping down right behind the storm. As a result it just gets moved along quickly with the fast, progressive flow and the shortwave can't slow down, dig and really strengthen, so it just goes OTS Quite possible it goes OTS but there are no trends at this range. We still don't even know what's going to happen with the 1st storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 FWIW, 12z Nam is flat at 84 hours http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160227+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 FWIW, 12z Nam is flat at 84 hours http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160227+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area It's not really flat, just slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 It's not really flat, just slow. Gfs like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Gfs is a rain event for anyone south of Albany wed/thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Gfs is way OTS with weekend event Although a pretty substantial click NW from 06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Gfs is way OTS with weekend event Its better defined than the 6z GFS. Need the west coast ridge to hold. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 GGEM is simila to other guidance with wed/Thursday storm.. Rain except far interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 CMC is weak and OTS with next weekend. Rather have it out to sea right now and worry about it as we get closer. Need help from the WAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Ukie for the 1st event. Different than Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 CMC is weak and OTS with next weekend. Rather have it out to sea right now and worry about it as we get closer. Need help from the WAR. I think its a good idea to follow the WPC with the 2nd later week event - they have shifted the storm track further south with the afternoon package - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=6&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Saturday is worth watching IMO. Good setup and there is room for this to trend further up the coast rather than directly OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I think its a good idea to follow the WPC with the 2nd later week event - they have shifted the storm track further south with the afternoon package - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=6&fcolor=wbg That looks sweet. Need the western ridge to hold up as the low turns the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 The UKMET at 144 is where you want to be. LP at OBX ridging right in front of it . HP through the lakes with a ridge on the WC. If that look is right. It comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 That looks sweet. Need the western ridge to hold up as the low turns the corner. It doesn't really turn the corner up the coast -see day 7 below - if this track holds whether we get any precip out of this will depend on the intensity and the size of the precip shield http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=7&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Euro is further north and gets snow into the area by 12am Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 on the water with cold air in good supply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Takes a 990 just outside the bm the ridge and flow is just a bit to progressive As is mod hit 4-6 for the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Takes a 990 just outside the bm the ridge and flow is just a bit to progressive As is mod hit 4-6 for the metro Quick high end advisory/low end warning event for Friday. EPS will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Quick high end advisory/low end warning event for Friday. EPS will be interesting Agree. How about that 20 degree drop in temps from 06z to 12z wed. Flash freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Finally a setup that will allow a storm to take a snow track to our south? Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Finally a setup that will allow a storm to take a snow track to our south? Looks good. Umm blizzard? Lol Another Hudson valley snow hole on the EURO... 6-12" to our north from the first event And we're too far south 3-6" jersey and coast 6-10 offshore with second event And we're too far north ^^^ I guarantee this happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 Hopefully, that 12z Euro 8-16 inch band from Eastern Long Island to Cape Cod trends west in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Hopefully, that 12z Euro 8-16 inch band from Eastern Long Island to Cape Cod trends west in later runs. With the WAR still at play, I expect it to as long as our western ridge can hold up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Not home but according to a tweet I saw, the EPS was further north and west than the operational with possible Ptype issues if anyone can confirm. Friday has to happen for snow, the pattern becomes unfavorable for snow starting next Sunday it would appear with zonal and semi-zonal flow taking over and replacing the meridional pattern we've been seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Not home but according to a tweet I saw, the EPS was further north and west than the operational with possible Ptype issues if anyone can confirm. Friday has to happen for snow, the pattern becomes unfavorable for snow starting next Sunday it would appear with zonal and semi-zonal flow taking over and replacing the meridional pattern we've been seeingBob Chill in the MA forum said that they would have to worry about p-type, so it would probably be good for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Eps is further southeast with storm 1. Low now goes over NYC with some members go southeast of LI. Storm 2 is a little east but stronger and wetter than 0z eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Not home but according to a tweet I saw, the EPS was further north and west than the operational with possible Ptype issues if anyone can confirm. Friday has to happen for snow, the pattern becomes unfavorable for snow starting next Sunday it would appear with zonal and semi-zonal flow taking over and replacing the meridional pattern we've been seeing Heard it was still a bit east for comfort for Nj West, but precip was upped from previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Not home but according to a tweet I saw, the EPS was further north and west than the operational with possible Ptype issues if anyone can confirm. Friday has to happen for snow, the pattern becomes unfavorable for snow starting next Sunday it would appear with zonal and semi-zonal flow taking over and replacing the meridional pattern we've been seeing The 0 line is S of the Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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