MJO812 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Still rain. Noise Noise when it shifted way east? Come on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 This is final?Nah, it will probably shoot to the Lakes when all is said and done ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 The 1st one should cut. The one behind will not. There's 1 more chance on the coastal plain before we wrap this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Some additional points on teleconnections... At this time of year, the wave lengths are shortening. As a result, one needs stronger blocking than what would be required in January and much of February to make a big difference. For the March 1-10 period, the temperature outcomes for a negative AO above -3.000 are essentially the same as those for an AO+ for the same period of time. A negative AO of -3.000 or below is much colder. Overall, assuming the latest AO forecast is reasonably accurate and considering a plausible scenario where the blocking dissipates for the second half of March, it appears that the odds favor a warmer than normal month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Rare blizzard for Chicago on the Euro for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Rare blizzard for Chicago on the Euro for Tuesday. These models are all over the place once again. This winter is giving the models fits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Euro is a cutter. It gets things quite unstable on Wednesday and it cranks the LLJ overhead. Good signal for convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 One of the problems with the storm next week is that the ULL is weakening by the time it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 One of the problems with the storm next week is that the ULL is weakening by the time it gets here. Cold front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 One of the problems with the storm next week is that the ULL is weakening by the time it gets here. this proves the GFS and its GEFS is nonsense and can't even be trusted 5 days out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 this proves the GFS and its GEFS is nonsense and can't even be trusted 5 days out now And the euro can be trusted? It hasn't been the king this winter. Its the only model that is really amped. Ukie isnt close to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Euro has a coastal which misses to the south at day 7. Nice and cold if that can come up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 And the euro can be trusted? It hasn't been the king this winter. Its the only model that is really amped. Ukie isnt close to the euro. Fine let us know how it works out for you on Wednesday going with the 12ZGFS and if it shows the same solution at 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Euro has a coastal which misses to the south at day 6. Nice and cold if that can come up.Verbatim, the flow is rather fast across the country with a flat ridge out west allowing for little amplification downstream. Wheres that WAR to help bring this North when we need it? Not particularly fond of this threat on the Euro OP but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Verbatim, the flow is rather fast across the country with a flat ridge out west allowing for little amplification downstream. Wheres that WAR to help bring this North when we need it? Not particularly fond of this threat on the Euro OP but we'll see. Its a better setup than the first one. More cold air around. Storms have been trending northwest at the last second. The war is least of our worries. This storm has been showing up for several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Euro has a coastal which misses to the south at day 6. Nice and cold if that can come up. Day 6? I thought the next potential storm after the midweek cutter is next weekend, around the 5th? That's more like day 8 isn't it, unless the Euro is showing something completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 It would be nice if the second storm comes further north ala the 0z Parallel Euro. We just don't want it to come too far north at the last minute than the 0z parallel was showing. Agree. Para was snow to rain for the coast and snow inland with a hugger. I believe para was a miller b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Day 6? I thought the next potential storm after the midweek cutter is next weekend, around the 5th? That's more like day 8 isn't it, unless the Euro is showing something completely different.March 4-5Day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 this proves the GFS and its GEFS is nonsense and can't even be trusted 5 days out now It proves nothing. They are handling the energy differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 It would be nice if the second storm comes further north ala the 0z Parallel Euro. We just don't want it to come too far north at the last minute than the 0z parallel was showing. You can see why I trust the Euro at 120 more than I do the GFS . Look at both ridges at 96. The western ridge is pulled too far West and the WAR is poking it's nose almost to the OHV at 18k feet. Again 1 of those alone argue for it to cut. The GFS tries to bully the ridge in the east . Doesn't make sense to me. It should sniff that ridge and cut . Now the 1 or 2 behind are the ones to watch because they belly under HP and come to the EC. Like I said yesterday that you root for the WAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 26, 2016 Author Share Posted February 26, 2016 You can see why I trust the Euro at 120 more than I do the GFS . Look at both ridges at 96. The western ridge is pulled too far West and the WAR is poking it's nose almost to the OHV at 18k feet. Again 1 of those alone argue for it to cut. The GFS tries to bully the ridge in the east . Doesn't make sense to me. It should sniff that ridge and cut . Now the 1 or 2 behind are the ones to watch because they belly under HP and come to the EC. Like I said yesterday that you root for the WAR. Would be great if the parallel can score a coup only a few days before going operational on March 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Would be great if the parallel can score a coup only a few days before going operational on March 8th. The parallel has the best skill score . I would argue the UKIE has done better this winter on the EC . I like the look at the UKMET at 144. That SW gets forced underneath. Then it's a matter of can it get pulled N once it's to OBX . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Yeah, that's where you root the Western Atlantic Ridge on...just not so much that it comes any further north than the 0Z parallel had. In any event, the MJO has actually improved the last few days. NAO looks more neutral with the AO negative. The end of next week has to work out if there is to be anymore meaningful snow. If it doesn't, that's it. Very mild regime starts to take over the 2nd week of March and it's not a transient warmup, by then we start closing in on mid month. Very good model agreement for week 2 of March flipping to a warm regime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Yeah, that's where you root the Western Atlantic Ridge on...just not so much that it comes any further north than the 0Z parallel had. In any event, the MJO has actually improved the last few days. NAO looks more neutral with the AO negative. Euro OP at day 7 is relying on the ridge near Greenland to displace the PV causing a weakish buckle in the flow. Overall, the flow across the US is progressive with a flat ridge out West. Pump the Western ridge a little more and we could be talking nice sized hit from DC-NYC. The WAR would also work to bring the weaker Euro system farther North, provided as you said, it doesn't overperform like many other times this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Euro has a coastal which misses to the south at day 7. Nice and cold if that can come up.The March 6-8 timeframe may be our last legitimate threat for a major snowfall on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Storms have been trending northwest at the last second. The war is least of our worries. The WAR is actually welcome late next week provided it doesnt overperform. It would help bring the suppressed Euro OP system farther North and West. The WAR is one of the biggest reasons storms have come farther N and W most of this winter, mainly the second half post January blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Eps is further east than the op for the cutter. Goes into central NY. It has a good signal for a coastal with the wave after that.More north and west than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 12z eps has a snowy mean, 2-4" for mostly everyone here... The control however has a massive storm 12-18+ for everyone here basically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 12z eps has a snowy mean, 2-4" for mostly everyone here... The control however has a massive storm 12-18+ for everyone here basically I would tend to believe the Euro' s since they have been consistent with this threat.....Until proven otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Not that's this matters 7 days out but... Eps control image.png Gefs are also pretty snowyimage.png E1 pleeeeeeeeze!And of course that control map matters as I fully expect several weenies to be posting it to FB and Twitter shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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