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Models Have Us On Northern Edge Of Snow 3/4/16


bluewave

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So when the guys to the NW got 2-3 inches before it was washed away in the rain storms, that snow didnt count either? 

 

Or does that rule only count for the coast?

 

This is the golden snowfall era for us at the coast. It makes up for all the NOAA weather radio days from the

70's to the early 90's....snow quickly changing to rain at the coast...heaviest snow over the interior...story at 11...

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This is the golden snowfall era for us at the coast. It makes up for all the NOAA weather radio days from the

70's to the early 90's....snow quickly changing to rain at the coast...heaviest snow over the interior...story at 11...

 

I agree. I remember as a kid, NW would get hammered and Suffolk would be raining. 

 

Now Suffolk and Monmouth are the new snow capitals. Nassau has done very well this year as well. 

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Thanks. I know PB has spiked the football many times before the final results came out. Last storm he said 2-4 for the airports and not one airport had about 2

There's 3 here in Colts Neck 5 in Toms River.

If JFK doesn't finish with 2 I bet a LI station 10 miles to its east does.

I only spike when I'm right. I was 2 city 4 south and east from 3 days out.

Think most of that will be right

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Guest Pamela

Snow continues to descend from the Heavens at a lovely pace in the pristine & picturesque winter wonderland that is beautiful Port Jefferson, New York...

 

*Smiles happily*

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There's 3 here in Colts Neck 5 in Toms River.

If JFK doesn't finish with 2 I bet a LI station 10 miles to its east does.

I only spike when I'm right. I was 2 city 4 south and east from 3 days out.

Think most of that will be right

Paul not to gas you up, but you're always right on the money with these things. Whether the city gets 2 or not you know they always under measure!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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I expected a coating to .5" for the boroughs. Looks like 1"-2" fell.

A little above expectations, but nothing crazy.

 

Happens all the time with precip forecasts, but nobody notices since so much of our annual precp is in liquid form.

Too bad we can't get a snowstorm that exceeds guidance by as much as the Islip 13 inch torrential rainstorm did.

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Guest Pamela

Happens all the time with precip forecasts, but nobody notices since so much of our annual precp is in liquid form.

Too bad we can't get a snowstorm that exceeds guidance by as much as the Islip 13 inch torrential rainstorm did.

 

Better than 90% in most years...

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This is the golden snowfall era for us at the coast. It makes up for all the NOAA weather radio days from the

70's to the early 90's....snow quickly changing to rain at the coast...heaviest snow over the interior...story at 11...

I remember like it was yesterday that I was 10 years old owning one of those NOAA weather monitors. The way they talked with there robotic voices. Back in those days except for a few occasions, the coast battled with the rain/snow line while NW Jersey would jackpot. In recent years everything has flipped on us with coastal areas cashing in with the bigger snows. I'm a firm believer that weather is cyclical. Eventually it will swing back the other way.

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Guest Pamela

 I'm a firm believer that weather is cyclical. Eventually it will swing back the other way.

 

I agree completely...but like the arrival of the Grim Reaper...hopefully, that day can be pushed as far off into the future as possible.

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Guest Pamela

To be fair, this is the 4th biggest storm of the season, so there's that.

 

Never feel the need to explain or justify...your friends do not need it and your foes will not believe you anyway...

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Better than 90% in most years...

 

I guess its tougher for the met community during the winter since the general public can expect perfection 

when it comes to forecasting snowfall. But rainfall forecast variability which is also common, only seems to get

noticed in the really larger magnitude misses than we can see with convection.

 

 

I remember like it was yesterday that I was 10 years old owning one of those NOAA weather monitors. The way they talked with there robotic voices. Back in those days except for a few occasions, the coast battled with the rain/snow line while NW Jersey would jackpot. In recent years everything has flipped on us with coastal areas cashing in with the bigger snows. I'm a firm believer that weather is cyclical. Eventually it will swing back the other way.

 

Must be the epic 2000's blocking setting up the more favorable storm tracks for snow at the coast.

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Guest Pamela

I guess its tougher for the met community during the winter since the general public can expect perfection 

when it comes to forecasting snowfall. But rainfall forecast variability which is also common, only seems to get

noticed in the really larger magnitude misses than we can see with convection.

 

 

If anyone can differentiate between 1.5" and 2.0" of rain...they are very discerning souls...

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3 Colts Neck

4 Marlboro

5 Toms River

3 for my boy Randy in Brightwaters

 

 

6.5" Cape May.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

 

 

Total will be 3.3" here, bringing me to 35.5" on the season. Pretty good winter snowfall wise. Most of the coast with 35-40"+, assuming no other events.

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I don't know PB. Going by many years of experience, LGA and JFK usually come in with very little during marginal situations, as if they measure snow on cement, instead of a snow board.

 

Wouldn't be surprised if they both reported .3"-.5" with KNYC reporting about 1".

 

We shall see.

 

I have found the complete opposite to be true through the years. Even though the Conservancy is taking official measurements this year at KNYC vs. the infamous zookeeper of years past, I've found Central Park to ignore many marginal events entirely and stick to their usual regime in cases like this of measuring at 7am and 1pm and ignore any melting, compressing or settling in between those times periods even if the snow had stopped for hours.

 

There's a reason the Zoo doesn't measure anymore, they stunk at it. This year I'd consider the Conservancy a marginal improvement at best and that's being kind.

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