IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 NAVGEM is an Apps Runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 this could be our Miller were looking for Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk You can't have a miller B without some type of block in place, Tony. The Euro has a bowling ball type system currently. It's going to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 nothing to see here.....move along well alrighty then.... if you must ask it looks like a snowstorm from where I am sitting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The GFS is super amped up. Going to be a big bowling ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 987mb over Philly. Closed 500mb low passes overhead and the cold air pours in down the backside. 986mb passes over NYC. Blizzard to the North and West of the low track. 2-3" LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Loving those highs up north. I wonder if this can trens even nore south. Active gfs run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 GFS is getting much closer to a bomb, this isnt over by a long stretch, verbatim the bowling bowl needs to be another 100 miles south....but in 6 days that adjustment is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Gefs looks like the op. Further east than 12z. Beautiful pna ridge on Gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 GFS is getting much closer to a bomb, this isnt over by a long stretch, verbatim the bowling bowl needs to be another 100 miles south....but in 6 days that adjustment is possible Considering the track record of the models this winter, that is entirely possible in 6 hours, forget 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Lakes cutter on the GFS. Back to hitting the midwest. These run to run changes are insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 By the time the storm gets to the east, it's a cold front lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 God....I know they say the models are always this bad, but boy do they seem particularly awful this year. I realize 168+ hour range is always going to be really bad....but the 120-144 hour range seems horrendous this winter season. Does the 5-6 day range usually flip flop to this degree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Lakes cutter on the GFS. Back to hitting the midwest. These run to run changes are insane. Seems fairly consistent to me. Would you honestly be surprised if this turned out to be a cutter / rain-maker for us? Seems we're locked in this pattern. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Seems fairly consistent to me. Would you honestly be surprised if this turned out to be a cutter / rain-maker for us? Seems we're locked in this pattern. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk GGEM is further east than the GFS but it's also a cold front by the time it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 GGEM is further east than the GFS but it's also a cold front by the time it gets here. It is about a week away, so who knows? Again, we wait. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 GFS and GGEM look terrible for every storm. Tune in tomorrow for another solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 GFS and GGEM look terrible for every storm. Tune in tomorrow for another solution. The problem is that in this El Nino winter, the good looking solutions end up being bad solutions. If something down the road looks good, it usually ends up being wrong. We had the blizzard but other than that little has worked out. Typical El Nino winter. The 12z Euro and EPS I believe showed next weekend's storm OTS, correct? I believe someone said we needed to actually root on the WAR. Now all of sudden tonight it's a lakes cutter? It seems that we just can't believe any positive looking solutions in this pattern. I hope we get lucky with something in the first half of March before spring settles in, but I'm quickly losing faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I don't know the weather models in great detail, but I do know how they operate, since I've done computational fluid dynamics modeling for small chemical reactors, which essentially utilizes the same heat, mass and momentum transfer equations and these also include phase changes and chemical reactions, so the composition is changing over time. For both systems, the models start with defining an initial state (initial conditions in the reactor or the global "reactor" for meteorology), certain boundary conditions, and the best physical approximation of the fundamental governing equations, which allow one to move forward in time, predicting what the next "state" looks like and then repeating the calculations for subsequent points in time. In both cases, the actual systems are so complex that "analytical solutions" do not exist (i.e., the various differential equations can't be "solved" per se), so a collection of usually non-linear numerical approximations are made for how the variables involved change over time, which is why so much computer horsepower is required. So, given that the initial conditions, globally in three dimensions at very fine grid spacing are not known well at all, and given the complexity of the equations involved, combined with the fact that weather is, by nature, inherently chaotic, meaning minor errors in initial conditions or forward moving calculations in time can lead to major errors in the various future state model outcomes (the butterfly effect as Lorenz called it, wherein a butterfly flapping its wings a certain way, in theory leads to a hurricane thousands of miles away well into the future), the question isn't, "why are these models so bad?" but really, how amazing is it that these models are this good?" It's hard to predict the future state of mixing in a chemical reactor I can hold in my hand and yet people are complaining that we can't predict the future state of a global system which still isn't that well understood on many levels? I wish I could convey better how unbelievably difficult it must be to even have any accuracy at all with these weather models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 The problem is that in this El Nino winter, the good looking solutions end up being bad solutions. If something down the road looks good, it usually ends up being wrong. We had the blizzard but other than that little has worked out. Typical El Nino winter. The 12z Euro and EPS I believe showed next weekend's storm OTS, correct? I believe someone said we needed to actually root on the WAR. Now all of sudden tonight it's a lakes cutter? It seems that we just can't believe any positive looking solutions in this pattern. I hope we get lucky with something in the first half of March before spring settles in, but I'm quickly losing faith.This is not a typical Niño winter. If any thing this pattern is more Niña with a dominant northern jet and weak STJ.#LaNiño Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 GFS, GGEM, Ukmet and Euro are all cutters. Operationals and ensembles are cutters and yes the EPS is a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 GFS, GGEM, Ukmet and Euro are all cutters. Operationals and ensembles are cutters and yes the EPS is a cutter Never again will I be fooled by anything that says we have a negative AO, positive PNA or MJO is favorable. They are all supposedly favorable and yet the storm plow right through the negative AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Looks like next week is a cutter. There are two more lowa to watch after next weeks storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Never again will I be fooled by anything that says we have a negative AO, positive PNA or MJO is favorable. They are all supposedly favorable and yet the storm plow right through the negative AO. -AO alone will not cut it in this pattern. The Atlantic is horrible, more is needed to overcome that than a decent AO signal. Models will see the day 10 stuff as cutters eventually once they see that the -NAO signal is phantom. At this point we have a better chance for record rains in March than a snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 -AO alone will not cut it in this pattern. The Atlantic is horrible, more is needed to overcome that than a decent AO signal. Models will see the day 10 stuff as cutters eventually once they see that the -NAO signal is phantom. At this point we have a better chance for record rains in March than a snow eventThere is no semblance of a west based -NAO/Greenland block, east based "-NAO" will not get it done. The last 2 winters we got away with +NAO and +AO because we had 1) No overwhelming ENSO signal, 2) A severely +PDO helping to drive a relentless, dominant -WPO, +PNA, -EPO pattern out west that allowed for cross polar flow over the top without AO help. This winter, the El Niño monkey wrenched everything, as did MJO waves at the beginning of winter, which helped bring the blowtorch December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 I see. I think the same happened in 97/98 where the teleconnections where great but we rained due to the fact that there was limited cold air to tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 12Z GFS has a totally different solution for next weeks storm - this one is more pleasing to all the winter weather enthusiasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 12Z GFS has a totally different solution for next weeks storm - this one is more pleasing to all the winter weather enthusiasts Still only rain followed by a dusting at best Decent hit for western NY AND WPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 -AO alone will not cut it in this pattern. The Atlantic is horrible, more is needed to overcome that than a decent AO signal. Models will see the day 10 stuff as cutters eventually once they see that the -NAO signal is phantom. At this point we have a better chance for record rains in March than a snow event Correct. A higher probability relative to climatology does not provide guarantees. Moreover, a cluster of the guidance now shows only weak blocking. Having said that, it's still premature to assume that March won't have any measurable snow. But the probability of a much snowier than normal March is declining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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