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Models Have Us On Northern Edge Of Snow 3/4/16


bluewave

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The SV Rgem map doesn't start until .10" of precip (makes no sense why they do that; what if this were a 30 to 1 event???)

Rgem is .05"-.09" of precip. Coating to 1" of snow.

12z Ukmet is 1"-2".

Ukmet was 1-2 area wide or Long Island? It's the only model so far showing that much so far. The CMC was next to nothing. Euro is up in a half hour...
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What time do you guys think the radar hallucinations and the "its .25 miles farther West than progged" posts will start? I would like to stop by later in time for the fun :-)

If this were 10+ years ago, a 25-50 mile error would be possible. Even inside of 12 hours.

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Nobody cares about an inch or two in SNJ and far E LI. This one is for the fish. Kind of reminds me of the big disaster from last March 

 

Which disaster from last March? I remember a solid storm on the 1st, the snow/ipzr/rain on the 3rd, the anafront on the 4th/5th which hit NYC pretty good, and the 21st storm with a solid snow (not sure if NYC did good on that one). Maybe my memory is escaping me but i dont remember a huge whiff or disaster from last year. I remember the 13-14 winter where there was a huge trend in the models to whiff last minute in March but that was 2 seasons ago. When models went from a solid 6-12 deal to nothing really fast. Which one are you referring to from last year?

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Which disaster from last March? I remember a solid storm on the 1st, the snow/ipzr/rain on the 3rd, the anafront on the 4th/5th which hit NYC pretty good, and the 21st storm with a solid snow (not sure if NYC did good on that one). Maybe my memory is escaping me but i dont remember a huge whiff or disaster from last year. I remember the 13-14 winter where there was a huge trend in the models to whiff last minute in March but that was 2 seasons ago. When models went from a solid 6-12 deal to nothing really fast. Which one are you referring to from last year?

He meant 2014 I assume. Even that storm ended up busting in DC. I don't think they saw more than 2-3 inches there

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Which disaster from last March? I remember a solid storm on the 1st, the snow/ipzr/rain on the 3rd, the anafront on the 4th/5th which hit NYC pretty good, and the 21st storm with a solid snow (not sure if NYC did good on that one). Maybe my memory is escaping me but i dont remember a huge whiff or disaster from last year. I remember the 13-14 winter where there was a huge trend in the models to whiff last minute in March but that was 2 seasons ago. When models went from a solid 6-12 deal to nothing really fast. Which one are you referring to from last year?

Snowgoose is correct. I'm talking about the 2014 storm. Also the end of January 2015 storm was a complete disaster for anyone West of the Garden State Parkway which is just under half this subforum.

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If the Euro is showing 1"-2" as IsentropicLift said, that would at least be a little something to enjoy. Better than the models that give us only a half inch coating. 

 

I see .5" to 1" on the Euro from tonight and 1"-2" from the clipper on Sunday.

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There euro is not 1-2 from this system, that would be combined from both this system and the clipper. And with temps in the 30s and March sun i wouldn't expect anyone in and around the city to be looking at any accumulating snow that's nice to look at. Roads/sidewalks will likely be wet and maybe a coating or a little more on table tops grassy surfaces. 

 

If this was early Jan with temps in the 20s it would be nice to whiten up the ground and a nice light mood snow, but this time of year with these temps... we're talking white rain = not fun

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There euro is not 1-2 from this system, that would be combined from both this system and the clipper. And with temps in the 30s and March sun i wouldn't expect anyone in and around the city to be looking at any accumulating snow that's nice to look at. Roads/sidewalks will likely be wet and maybe a coating or a little more on table tops grassy surfaces.

If this was early Jan with temps in the 20s it would be nice to whiten up the ground and a nice light mood snow, but this time of year with these temps... we're talking white rain = not fun

The clipper has -8 850s and falls early Sunday morning, pre-dawn. Good bursts of snow can coat most areas outside of Manhattan.

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There euro is not 1-2 from this system, that would be combined from both this system and the clipper. And with temps in the 30s and March sun i wouldn't expect anyone in and around the city to be looking at any accumulating snow that's nice to look at. Roads/sidewalks will likely be wet and maybe a coating or a little more on table tops grassy surfaces. 

 

If this was early Jan with temps in the 20s it would be nice to whiten up the ground and a nice light mood snow, but this time of year with these temps... we're talking white rain = not fun

any coatings will also be gone by noon on both days....these 2 minor events will pad the totals for some areas, but that is about it.  JFK needs 1/2 inch to get to 40 on the year.

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Which disaster from last March? I remember a solid storm on the 1st, the snow/ipzr/rain on the 3rd, the anafront on the 4th/5th which hit NYC pretty good, and the 21st storm with a solid snow (not sure if NYC did good on that one). Maybe my memory is escaping me but i dont remember a huge whiff or disaster from last year. I remember the 13-14 winter where there was a huge trend in the models to whiff last minute in March but that was 2 seasons ago. When models went from a solid 6-12 deal to nothing really fast. Which one are you referring to from last year?

Last March was nice. 18 inches here.

 

He meant 2014 I assume. Even that storm ended up busting in DC. I don't think they saw more than 2-3 inches there

2-3 storms that winter in March was modeled to hit NYC. Every one of them went south. SMH.

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