MJO812 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Looks like 1-2 inches on the sref. More towards LI like around 3 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 The piece coming through the lakes on the backside did this in. It's kicking it OTS instead of bringing it North. It had to be either weaker or much slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Looks like 1-2 inches on the sref. More towards LI like around 3 . Shifted Southeast again. One more tick and the city will be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Shifted Southeast again. One more tick and the city will be dry. Agreed.....you guys are setting up for mood flakes at this point. Pathetic end to 'winter'. See you guys next fall/winter. Have a great summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Shifted Southeast again. One more tick and the city will be dry. We are inside of 24 hours. Models are converging. 6z Rgem and others came to the consensus as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 3, 2016 Author Share Posted March 3, 2016 Classic case of the Euro struggling with the strength of the northern stream on that run last Saturday which had 8-16 from MTP to CC. Check out how the stronger 50/50 adds just enough suppression with the stronger high and confluence east of Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 We are inside of 24 hours. Models are converging. 6z Rgem and others came to the consensus as well. It's over North and West of the city and has been for days. The city and points East still have a chance at a little accumulation but I think that's going to be more towards SNJ and E LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 There could still be some very light snow in all areas starting later tonight and overnight. But we're talking pixie dust type accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 The coastal is well OTS on the 12z NAM. Barely scrapes extreme SE NJ and then OTS. LI sees nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 You can't get a system to come North when you have a neutrally tilted trough this late in the game. It's the same argument that I made days ago. The last few days have just been some typical windshield wiper activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 It's over North and West of the city and has been for days. The city and points East still have a chance at a little accumulation but I think that's going to be more towards SNJ and E LI. NAM and RGEM locked in yesterday and rest of the guidance went that way overnight. Odd to see the NW model so suppressed yesterday-red flag there. Also, with the OTS coastal trending stronger, that robbed the overrunning that many of us would have seen if we had a weaker coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Why are you leaving? Whats the point? I dont get why people leave . They won't really "leave" per se - they'll still check the rest of the 12Z models and if a few of them shift back NW and give the area measurable snow, you can bet they'll be posting again, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I have more faith in the clipper than the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 This events basically dead, however, I have, rarely seen anyone talk or use the wrf models. So, was doing some reliability searching on the mesoscale models, wrf-nmm and wrf-arw, and from what I've been reading, they have been extremely reliable. Now, the 0z wrf-nmm gave half of southern Jersey and parts of long island more then 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 This events basically dead, however, I have, rarely seen anyone talk or use the wrf models. So, was doing some reliability searching on the mesoscale models, wrf-nmm and wrf-arw, and from what I've been reading, they have been extremely reliable. Now, the 0z wrf-nmm gave half of southern Jersey and parts of long island more then 3 inches. Nobody cares about an inch or two in SNJ and far E LI. This one is for the fish. Kind of reminds me of the big disaster from last March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Really think maybe extreme eastern Long Island sees more than an inch or 2 but for everyone else this is really I think a non issue. Time to move on to the warm up coming.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Nobody cares about an inch or two in SNJ and far E LI. This one is for the fish. Kind of reminds me of the big disaster from last March Right,but the real question,and sorta a statement, wrf is shown as being highly reliable.. with that in mind, why have I rarely if ever seen it mentioned/used? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I mean for the summer. True weenies always post throughout the year.Guess I'm not a "true weenie" lol. I will definitely lurk and check in from time to time this summer, but overall I find the weather from June thru part of Sept pretty darn boring. Unless its an extreme anomaly temp-wise, a tropical system, severe, or something else unusual, I'm usually fishing, camping, spending time with the kids since they are on summer vacation, on vacation somewhere myself, etc. My computer time is usually rather limited during those months. And yeah, obviously I will be back if 18z tonight does a 180 :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Right,but the real question,and sorta a statement, wrf is shown as being highly reliable.. with that in mind, why have I rarely if ever seen it mentioned/used? The WRF is the old NAM. And these high res short term models are mostly for forecasting convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Guess I'm not a "true weenie" lol. I will definitely lurk and check in from time to time this summer, but overall I find the weather from June thru part of Sept pretty darn boring. Unless its an extreme anomaly temp-wise, a tropical system, severe, or something else unusual, I'm usually fishing, camping, spending time with the kids since they are on summer vacation, on vacation somewhere myself, etc. My computer time is usually rather limited during those months. And yeah, obviously I will be back if 18z tonight does a 180 :-) I have a feeling this will be a very active Spring/Summer as we come off the strong Nino and move towards a Nina. I think the Florida TC landfall drought ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 The NAM 4K shows an extremely well organized system. It almost looks like a hurricane off the coast, 400 miles east of ACY. That's impressive in its own right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 3, 2016 Author Share Posted March 3, 2016 The NAM 4K shows an extremely well organized system. It almost looks like a hurricane off the coast, 400 miles east of ACY. That's impressive in its own right. A little further west and this would have been an amazing March KU blizzard. The satellite image is going to look really fierce when this rapidly deepens tomorrow. BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO 100 NM OFFSHOREHURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY FRI N TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT...BECOMING N 60 TO 75 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT...BUILDING TO 13 TO 22 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 A little further west and this would have been an amazing March KU blizzard. The satellite image is going to look really fierce when this rapidly deepens tomorrow. BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO 100 NM OFFSHOREHURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY FRI N TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT...BECOMING N 60 TO 75 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT...BUILDING TO 13 TO 22 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN. If what I saw last night on models is still true, Nova Scotia is going be hammered hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 either rgem is wetter or it shifted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Im interested in the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 either rgem is wetter or it shifted? You need to give up the ghost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 You need to give up the ghost Inch at best with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 You need to give up the ghost are you thinking any snow tomorrow out of it then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 maybe stop paying attention to the navgem from now on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Time to lock down this thread IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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