wthrmn654 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Gefs, looks basically unchanged ,slightly less with amounts, though Suffolk county looks too be winner at this point. Possibly southern Jersey as well. Looking at the ensembles, unless I'm mistaken, looks like there's a cluster to the north of the low placement with a couple south at hours 54, and decent cluster to the west of low at hour 60. Should be interesting to see 18z later on. Looking at geps, it looks virtually unchanged, a slightly less precipitation amounts, but again, looks like Suffolk does best, and maybe southern Jersey. esembles are actually all over the place this run, however,there does appear to be a bunch of esembles to the west of the main low,at hour 60, though hour 54 looks too be more to the north of it then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 What models are wrf-arw and wrf-nmm? They look pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Time to stick a fork in this one....RGEM is next and it likely won't be pretty Maybe for your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Maybe for your area RGEM was not pretty for anyone-except far South NJ and VA/MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Lastly, I didn't see any mention of how the navgem reversed itself again moving closer againm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 RGEM was not pretty for anyone-except far South NJ and VA/MDRGEM was ugly. The reason is that the strength of the overrunning was overdone in the last few days. The parent low just fizzles out and the well offshore coastal takes all the lift and qpf as it strengthens. Would not be surprised to see areas north and west of NYC just see flurries and snow showers with zero accumulation. This "event" gets less impressive with every run today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Maybe for your area Ant, for the city too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 RGEM was ugly. The reason is that the strength of the overrunning was overdone in the last few days. The parent low just fizzles out and the well offshore coastal takes all the lift and qpf as it strengthens. Would not be surprised to see areas north and west of NYC just see flurries and snow showers with zero accumulation. This "event" gets less impressive with every run today I agree-the coastal is trending stronger and it's pulling into the QPF toward its center. And that center is too far S and E to give us anything of note-thinking many get skunked on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The EPS has trended further N with the coastal and is now snowier for the 3rd run in a row. You are looking at high res models at the edge of their envelope. They are likely wrong. Your snow now looks like it comes from the coastal and will primarily be relegated to the city and points S and E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Ant, for the city too 1-3 isnt bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 18z GFS is no bueno, maybe 1-2 " for coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Man the gfs is painfully close to a big snowstorm. It hugs the coast but then goes east. Smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 It will melt the day of, or the next day. And it def won't accumulate in the city.Yeah in the city aka manhattan but it'll stick in the outer boroughs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Weak sauce, but guess you have no other option but to take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 If you look at H5 the associated vort on the GFS actually jumped further NW. The problem is that this Northern stream energy dropping down on the backside of the trough is too strong so it pushes it offshore. Keep in mind that it's the same energy making it the explosive nuke that it is, but we need it to either slow way down or weaken some and time is running out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Weak sauce, but guess you have no other option but to take it. GFS looks great compared to the NAM. 2 inches would be a decent snow for early march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Just give me a couple inches and I'm done. It's March and we've had one of the warmest Winter's ever, so you really can't expect much anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Just give me a couple inches and I'm done. It's March and we've had one of the warmest Winter's ever, so you really can't expect much anyway. yep-let's pad the totals a bit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Anyone seen Upton snow maps ? Experimental maximum gives areas of around NYC,Hudson valley more then long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Just saying, gefs is wetter then last run. Check out hour 60, 24 HR precipitation. I'll work on getting image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Mount Holly's discussion. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THU NIGHT THRU FRI AFTERNOON... LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NC COASTAL REGION THU NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR WATERS FRIDAY. THE TRACK HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TODAY AND THE QPF/SNOWFALL FCST HAS EDGED UP A LITTLE TO REFLECT THIS. THE GFS IS STILL A RATHER SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WITH SNOWFALL AMTS MUCH HIGHER THAN OUR PRESENT FCST. WE HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE 12Z EC WHICH...IF TEMPS REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FRI...COULD PRODUCE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND INTO SRN NJ. AMTS FURTHER NORTH WILL BE MORE LIGHT 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER NRN NJ AND NE PA. THE SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN IN THE LATE EVENING (7-9 PM) ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FURTHER NORTH. THE TOTAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND 8 TO 12 HOURS NORTH AND 12-18 HOURS OVER THE DELMARVA. TEMPERATURES FRI OVER SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA MAYBE MARGINAL FOR SNOW, SO THIS IS A RATHER TRICKY SNOW FCST WITH ONLY MOD CONFID IN AMTS ATTM. CONSIDERING CONFID LEVELS AND TIMING, STILL A BIT EARLY OF ANY ADVSY ATTM. LIKELY NOT ENOUGH SNOW TO JUSTIFY A WATCH. OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN RAISE ANY NECESSARY FLAGS OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Gefs did shift east 20-30 miles, roughly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Staten Island Advance "Sanitation trucks are ready for the snow " Gefs did shift east 20-30 miles, roughly 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Hmm, navgem, is stronger, at hours 48,54, looks south. By hour60 however, it's west by about 50 miles and once hell of a storm! Pressure of 984, ripping winds! Unknown is the precipitation field Dove it hasn't loaded yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 yep-let's pad the totals a bit.... Yeah I couldnt stomach calling this a below average winter for just 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Precipitation has finally loaded on navgem and at hour 54, heavy stuff is on the montauk doorstep. South Jersey it's a little better at hour 42,48. However at hour 54, there is no improvement,but in fact less precipitation for NYC,Jersey. Long Island however, is still snowing, with Rhode Island being pounded and the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 The 21z SREF eyeballing look wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 http://digital.weather.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/20160302/21/sref_namer_060_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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