IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Wow, GFS is a weenies dream. Snowstorm after snowstorm. No warmup in sight after next week. Just fixed it. Maine gets hit good but it went a good deal south from last run. Admitting you have a problem is half the battle The pattern looks very active but it looks terrible for snow in this area. The streak of offshore tracks looks to be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 until that WAR relaxes and/or we get some west based blocking, we're toast as far as cold and snow. UKMET has led the way here of late. Euro has been horrible 5-7 days outGood points above about how a very strong northern jet is throwing a monkey wrench into the Euro long range. A record warm arctic I wonder if it is amping up the northern jet like a La Nina. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2016 Author Share Posted February 25, 2016 Would a record warm arctic be contributing to a stronger northern jet? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk It could be a combination of that along with the much warmer waters north of Hawaii than we normally see during an El Nino. Check out how much warmer those SST's are this week than they were back in 1998 and 1983. We typically see that warm pool north of Hawaii during La Nina winters. 2016 minus 1998 and 1983 La Nina composite warm waters north of Hawaii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 also just read on Wxbell-Joe D'aleo stating that Hurricane Winston wrecked the progression into MJO phase 8 and instead it stays in warmer phase 7...he holds out hope for March, basing it in part on a -NAO to develop, but good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 until that WAR relaxes and/or we get some west based blocking, we're toast as far as cold and snow. UKMET has led the way here of late. Euro has been horrible 5-7 days out Euro and the ensembles have been atrocious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 It could be a combination of that along with the much warmer waters north of Hawaii than we normally see during an El Nino. Check out how much warmer those SST's are this week than they were back in 1998 and 1983. We typically see that warm pool north of Hawaii during La Nina winters. 2016 minus 1998 and 1983 SST.gif La Nina composite warm waters north of Hawaii Nina.gif Very interesting, thanks Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 also just read on Wxbell-Joe D'aleo stating that Hurricane Winston wrecked the progression into MJO phase 8 and instead it stays in warmer phase 7...he holds out hope for March, basing it in part on a -NAO to develop, but good luck with that.Yes, good luck getting a -NAO anytime soon. What you mentioned, plus it appears we are going into a strong -AMO regime. Look at how severely cold the ssts are in the North Atlantic around Greenland. That is a textbook dipole (+NAO) signature and not even close to the tripole (-NAO) configuration you would want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Yes, good luck getting a -NAO anytime soon. What you mentioned, plus it appears we are going into a strong -AMO regime. Look at how severely cold the ssts are in the North Atlantic around Greenland. That is a textbook dipole signature and not even close to the tripole (-NAO) configuration you would want to see. I think that cold pool started about 2-3 yrs ago and coincided with the +NAO. We had a -AMO in the 1980's which likely contributed to the long term positive +NAO seen during that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Imagine we have another 20 bad period like the 80s and 90s. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Imagine we have another 20 bad period like the 80s and 90s. Wow. There's obviously more to it than the AMO, but the last 20 years or so have featured a +AMO. Most of those years have had above normal snowfall especially since 00-01 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Just missed another bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 LOL-the GFS has a clipper that turns into a cutter! The whole run is pretty bad, only shot of snow is a weak clipper around day 10...yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Given the unfavorable snow pattern around here, only hope now is for a surprise snow due to right timing that models only sniff out a few days notice. Otherwise, time to move on. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Given the unfavorable snow pattern around here, only hope now is for a surprise snow due to right timing that models only sniff out a few days notice. Otherwise, time to move on. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk problem is, it's only 2/25-I'd love to skip MArch at this point and go right into spring and baseball season. Not looking forward to a wet and somewhat mild month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 problem is, it's only 2/25-I'd love to skip MArch at this point and go right into spring and baseball season. Not looking forward to a wet and somewhat mild monthI know, weeks of weather boredom loom with mediocre 40s and 50s and lots of ugly landscape. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I know, weeks of weather boredom loom with mediocre 40s and 50s and lots of ugly landscape. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk have to hope for some lucky blue bomb or something....that's about all we're left with at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Give it up. Winter has been over for a week now. Ever since that arctic air we had its done now. We could always get a freak snowstorm during March but Arctic air and prolonged winter weather is over. You can feel that spring is transitioning already, just see what happened last night! I would watch the period from March 7th till the 14th though for a bomb! March looks to be a colder than average month though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 have to hope for some lucky blue bomb or something....that's about all we're left with at this point.Pattern volatility will still be there so timing will be everything. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Here is something actually meaningful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 March looks stormy so we still have to keep an eye out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 12z UKMET is a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 apparantly the Euro has 2 cutters as well, Day 4 and Day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 apparantly the Euro has 2 cutters as well, Day 4 and Day 6Yep. Not only cutters but another severe threat next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 apparantly the Euro has 2 cutters as well, Day 4 and Day 6 We will have chances after the cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 We will have chances after the cutter of course we will.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Give it up. Winter has been over for a week now. Ever since that arctic air we had its done now. We could always get a freak snowstorm during March but Arctic air and prolonged winter weather is over. You can feel that spring is transitioning already, just see what happened last night! I would watch the period from March 7th till the 14th though for a bomb! March looks to be a colder than average month though! Ummm 5" in March 98!!!!! How much do you want to bet it snows again???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Ummm 5" in March 98!!!!! How much do you want to bet it snows again???? we got lucky that year. That literally was the only snow that year. I don't doubt we get a freak snow. Possibly a bombSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 we got lucky that year. That literally was the only snow that year. I don't doubt we get a freak snow. Possibly a bomb Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Damn so no bet.... Ok tony it's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Damn so no bet.... Ok tony it's all good.this could be our Miller were looking for Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The 12z JMA also has the big cutter. Almost a carbon copy of what we just had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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