ag3 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Looks like the UKMET gives some decent overrunning snow before the coastal brush? What does it give most of the area a couple inches of snow? Not much. Total precip maps have less then 5mm of total precip. Closer to 3mm. That's not gonna get it done this late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Looks like the UKMET gives some decent overrunning snow before the coastal brush? What does it give most of the area a couple inches of snow? Does not see much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 So what are we thinking snow wise for NYC metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 So what are we thinking snow wise for NYC metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 12z Euro shifted towards the GFS. 1"-2"/2"-3" type stuff from the coastal mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Euro is drier than 00z. Less than 0.25" even for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Euro is drier than 00z. Less than 0.25" even for the city. Not a fair assessment. It's drier with the over-running mostly, but the actual coastal is noticeably north of 0z and wetter. Caving towards the GFS, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Euro is drier than 00z. Less than 0.25" even for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Not a fair assessment. It's drier with the over-running mostly, but the actual coastal is noticeably north of 0z and wetter. Caving towards the GFS, IMO. I'm looking at overall QPF not just the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 The Euro and GFS develop sustained hurricane force winds on the west side of the rapidly deepening low over the Atlantic on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Not a fair assessment. It's drier with the over-running mostly, but the actual coastal is noticeably north of 0z and wetter. Caving towards the GFS, IMO. It's game over for the northwest suburbs, eastern Long Island gets a couple inches maybe from the fringes of the coastal. The overrunning from the dying primary low is looking less and less impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 It's game over for the northwest suburbs, eastern Long Island gets a couple inches maybe from the fringes of the coastal. The overrunning from the dying primary low is looking less and less impressive I agree that it's over for the northwest burbs. I wouldn't call it over for anyone within 25 miles of the ocean. 1"-2"/2"-4" is quite possible for NYC and a small shift north could bring even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Sometimes the biggies tend to come closer at the last minute. I'll ride this thing till the bitter end. It's like being on the titanic. Even the band stop playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Not much. Total precip maps have less then 5mm of total precip. Closer to 3mm. That's not gonna get it done this late in the season. I'd take 5 mm and run. That's 2" of snow at 10:1 ratios and since most should fall during night time hours, it'll accumulate with temps 2-4F below 32F. Even an inch of snow on untreated roads will make for an impacted morning rush in these parts. Obviously, accumulations after 8-9 am will be much harder, as temps will be near 32F and the early March indirect sunlight has a melting rate that cancels out a light snowfall rate, i.e., one would need at least moderate snowfall (close to 1/2" per hour) to get accumulation, especially on bare/wet paved surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Sref shifted east. Looks like gfs and euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 That's actually pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 It'll be nice to see snow, regardless how much, since most of the area hasn't had a snowfall since the 2/15-16 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 18z NAM has zip for all except far southern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The new NAM looks decent If by decent, you mean nothing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Nam is atrocious. This is close to dead, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The new NAM looks decent It's decent for the MA, no one else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 If by decent, you mean nothing: Yeah I was looking at 12z my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 So the EPS looks good, and then the new NAM gives us nothing. Tough to make a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Time to stick a fork in this one....RGEM is next and it likely won't be pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Nam is atrocious. This is close to dead, folks. So the GFS, Euro and EPS look pretty good but it's close to dead because of an 18z NAM run? Do we trust the NAM that much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 So the GFS, Euro and EPS look pretty good but it's close to dead because of an 18z NAM run? Do we trust the NAM that much? The NAM has been the most suppressed with this event as a whole so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 If we only had a little more spacing between the storm today and this one. The surfers are going to love the swell thrown back to the coast from this. HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON TO 1000 FM-333 PM EST WED MAR 2 2016...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING....TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT..THU...NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT...BECOMING N TO NW 5 TO 15 KT. SEAS4 TO 7 FT..THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT...BECOMING E 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS3 TO 6 FT..FRI...NE WINDS 35 TO 45 KT...BECOMING N TO NE 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS6 TO 11 FT...BUILDING TO 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN..FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 45 TO 60 KT...DIMINISHING TO 35 TO 45 KT.SEAS 12 TO 22 FT..SAT...N WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...BECOMING NW 5 TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO14 FT..SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT..SUN...N TO NE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT..SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 10 TO 20 KT...BECOMING W TO SW 5 TO 15 KT.SEAS 3 TO 5 FT..MON...W TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT..MON NIGHT...W TO SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 18z RGEM is pretty bad. We get little from the over-running, and zip from coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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