IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Not one mention of the overnight euro..what did it say? Actually if you go back and look a page or so back Met fan mentioned that the Euro was still OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Not one mention of the overnight euro..what did it say? EPS 2 city 3 to 4 E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Actually if you go back and look a page or so back Met fan mentioned that the Euro was still OTS. I went to sleep before the Euro started. It went slightly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 SREFS , GFS and it's ensembles are .5 at KNYC. Cold 850s and this system will deepen rapidly so if it gets close enough there should be good lift right through the slot so you could go 12 to 1 . The question is , is it .2 or .5 , we will know at 12z It's pretty much an I95 event. The EPS agrees. It's 2 to 4 with the potential for more in CNJ and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 They are run off the prior NAMActually you are correct and incorrect at the same time. After doing some research into this, the sref uses the next nam op run data so it can actually give a clue as to where the next nam run might head. However, the sref is also ingested with the prior wrf data which is another product ran off of the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Actually you are correct and incorrect at the same time. After doing some research into this, the sref uses the next nam op run data so it can actually give a clue as to where the next nam run might head. However, the sref is also ingested with the last wrf data which is another product ran off of the nam.So 21z takes the 0z initialization data and goes backwards 3 hours and forecasts out 3 hours to 0z which may or may not match the actual initialization conditions? Yikes.I do know the prior NAM is one of the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Upton 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW PASSES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE CWA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS STORM. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL. THE ECMWF AND NAM KEEP QPF AMOUNTS BELOW THAN 2 INCHES. FOR NOW...WITH STICK CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST. EXPECTING AROUND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA..EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CT...WHERE 2-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS BRING THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST...EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 So 21z takes the 0z initialization data and goes backwards 3 hours and forecasts out 3 hours to 0z which may or may not match the actual initialization conditions? Yikes. I do know the prior NAM is one of the members. Apparently, yes. Weird right? Taken right off ncep site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Apparently, yes. Weird right? Taken right off ncep site.Well I appreciate you looking that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 EPS 2 city 3 to 4 E What about nj Also mt holly in their disco indicated ratios will be on the lower side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Through 24hrs the NAM is more amped up and the confluence over SE Canada is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 What about nj Also mt holly in their disco indicated ratios will be on the lower side Very sharp cutoff NW of 95. This is a coastal scrapper at its finest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Nam?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Nam?? Give it 10 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The NAM is going to come NW from 06z, I just don't know by how much. It's significantly more amped up, the confluence is weaker and the energy dropping through the lakes is slower which should help pull it up instead of out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The 500mb trough on the NAM is more neutrally tilted and the energy is stronger. Heights are also higher ahead of it. 06z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The NAM came further NW. It has a much more organized system that actually closes off at H5 but it's still not good enough to bring the goods this far North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The overrunning on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Nam is slightly further west with the coastal but nothing exciting. The overrunning isn't exciting either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 06z compared to 12z A step in the right direction, but we needed more than a 50 mile shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 06z compared to 12z A step in the right direction, but we needed more than a 50 mile shift. The 12z runs should be telling given we are 48 hours from the event now. Time Is running out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 At this point, this is just model noise. 50 miles here and there isn't gonna help anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Nam is slightly further west with the coastal but nothing exciting. The overrunning isn't exciting either. Stronger system makes the over running weaker. Unless we see further NW trends, we may witness the ultimate shaft job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Look how the coastal robs the overrunning dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Stronger system makes the over running weaker. Unless we see further NW trends, we may witness the ultimate shaft job. Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Actually really disappointed in this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Actually really disappointed in this run. 12k Nam is better. Better with the overrunning and coastal. It develops a sub 980 low offshore. What a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Stronger system makes the over running weaker. Unless we see further NW trends, we may witness the ultimate shaft job. Look how the coastal robs the overrunning dry. this was my concern yesterday-as the old system dies in OH and jumps to the coastal, we end up in the screw zone...looks to be unfolding that way on modeling the last 12-24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 12k Nam is better. Better with the overrunning and coastal. It develops a sub 980 low offshore. What a beast. Don't be fooled by the pretty colors on sim radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 You're such a weenie. Anything north of the 1020 line here is likely virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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