brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 If anything I'm just intrigued on the increase in precip on the 18z GEFS. That's bigger in my book than the LR NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 If anything I'm just intrigued on the increase in precip on the 18z GEFS. That's bigger in my book than the LR NAM. I agree especially since it was the farthest south just 2 days ago now the most current 18Z GEFS is giving the metro the most precip with the coastal - in addition nobody uses the NAM for longer range past 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 GFS should come back to earth imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 If anything I'm just intrigued on the increase in precip on the 18z GEFS. That's bigger in my book than the LR NAM. Anecdotally at least, the 18z GFS is the crazy uncle. It just makes stuff up. Do they actually keep track of the accuracy of the different runs? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 GFS should come back to earth imo hope you are not basing that conclusion on a 69 hour NAM .............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 hope you are not basing that conclusion on a 69 hour NAM ..............You feel free to hope whatever you want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 NAM trending towards the drier Euro/JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Anecdotally at least, the 18z GFS is the crazy uncle. It just makes stuff up. Do they actually keep track of the accuracy of the different runs? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Yes. It is better than 12z inside 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Yes. It is better than 12z inside 5 days. Very interesting. Thanks! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 You feel free to hope whatever you want thanks - you too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Very interesting. Thanks! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Np. To clarify though, I mean it is better than the preceding 12z run. So it is always an improvement except way out in lalaland. Not that it has better verification than 12z overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 GFS should come back to earth imo Based off what? NAM trending towards the drier Euro/JMA One run isnt a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Np. To clarify though, I mean it is better than the preceding 12z run. So it is always an improvement except way out in lalaland. Not that it has better verification than 12z overall. I don't think any model has a handle on what exactly is going to happen in this situation because it is very complex and depends on the strength and timing of each individual player -especially in redevelopment scenarios - 50 - 100 miles either way with each makes a big difference and still over 2 days away there is room for adjustments one way or the other ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Based off what? One run isnt a trend Based on the fact that it is on the northern envelope of guidance. There is no reason to blindly chose it because you like it better. It has been inconsistent and the guidance that was most amped to start (ggem/Navgem) backed off. I didn't like seeing the German model back off at 18z either.I fully acknowledge that I could be wrong and the GFS could double down. My guess is that it was too far northwest at 18z. It's all in fun, nobody relies on anything I say here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Well now that all models have abandoned the idea of a 6"+ snowstorm, we're left to argue over whether it will be "up to an inch or so", or "1-3/2-4"....at least it's not a big time win or loss either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Based on the fact that it is on the northern envelope of guidance. There is no reason to blindly chose it because you like it better. It has been inconsistent and the guidance that was most amped to start (ggem/Navgem) backed off. I didn't like seeing the German model back off at 18z either. I fully acknowledge that I could be wrong and the GFS could double down. My guess is that it was too far northwest at 18z. It's all in fun, nobody relies on anything I say here. you have to worry that the NW trend was an overcorrection and we're now going to see a shift back south...NAM definitely moved torwards today's drier runs of the Euro and JMA. 3 things to worry about 1. progressive pattern 2. positively tilted trough 3. screw zone once the OH low dies and the coastal forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 CRAS is flat and heads due East off OBX to Bermuda. Red flag raised. This model is usually overamped so the fact it is weaker and flatter than the NAM should raise an eyebrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 CRAS is flat and heads due East off OBX to Bermuda. Red flag raised. This model is usually overamped so the fact it is weaker and flatter than the NAM should raise an eyebrow.There aren't many models I don't even look at, but that's one of them. Along with the Russian model which has a resolution of about 1000 sq mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 GFS is slightly east. It looked better but then it slipped east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 There aren't many models I don't even look at, but that's one of them. Along with the Russian model which has a resolution of about 1000 sq mi.If you use it properly as guidance and not verbatim, the CRAS has it's applications. It is also fairly reliable during severe season fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Gfs is slight north at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 GFS is 1-3 for NYC. I will take it. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=GFS&p=acc10snow&rh=2016030200&fh=66&r=conus&dpdt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Based on gfs snow maps. There actually better for Jersey,long Island,NYC compared to 18z...2-3/ 2-4 roughly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 CMC is a total miss now. Looks like the Euro. Anyway, night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Way south on cmc no bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 GGEM is a total miss. I wish we can get back those ggem and navgem runs from 2 days ago. Night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Where is the WAR when we need it now? SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 CMC is a total miss now. Looks like the Euro. Anyway, night. It still has overrunning though right? PB said that the afternoon Euro run had increased to .2 with the overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Per cmc, snow wise, maybe extreme Eastern Suffolk see 1-2 inches. Rest is barely an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 It still has overrunning though right? PB said that the afternoon Euro run had increased to .2 with the overrunning. Barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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