Thunder7842 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 They weren't very optimistic/gung ho late last night or this morning either. I see in the forecasts Upton has less than 1 inch thursday night and 1 to 2 inches friday morning. That's more bullish than the current forecast that Mount Holly NWS has out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I see in the forecasts Upton has less than 1 inch thursday night and 1 to 2 inches friday morning. That's more bullish than the current forecast that Mount Holly NWS has out right now. I guess if you want to call no snow to 1-2" more bullish you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 They weren't very optimistic/gung ho late last night or this morning either. Theyu said yesterday, everything shifted north and talked about what the different models were showing. Today nothing lol, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 18z GEFS is now warning level NYC/ CNJ/ LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 18z GEFS is now warning level NYC/ CNJ/ LIThat's the first very interesting development. A bit from coastal? Can't all be over running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 That's the first very interesting development. A bit from coastal? Can't all be over running Both. Don't bite yet. It's the only model to show that much precip and the ensembles only need a few far W members to skew the mean . However the precip shield has come W on all 4 of the last GEFS runs . So you want to see that hold steady as the members consolidate. The EPS came west but it had a few W members. But it's definitely an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 18z GEFS is now warning level NYC/ CNJ/ LIDefinitely closer with the coastal. Looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Geps has, I'd I'm not mistaken also been a decent hit/ with west shifts as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Both. Don't bite yet. It's the only model to show that much precip and the ensembles only need a few far W members to skew the mean . However the precip shield has come W on all 4 of the last GEFS runs . So you want to see that hold steady as the members consolidate. The EPS came west but it had a few W members. But it's definitely an improvement. If concensus begins to develop with most and the Euro being the outlier for the next two runs at that point Ill bite. Look at THAT though...certainly more appealing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Definitely closer with the coastal. Looks good As I mentioned yesterday - don't ignore the northwest 2015 -2016 seasonal trend as events draw closer - lets see if that verifies this time around - also kind of ironic that just 2 days ago the GFS and GEFS had this storm well south and east of most other models and now it is moving it closer and closer to the coast where parts of the area are in low end warning criteria snows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html 4 inch mean for LaGuardia from the GEFS 18Z 18Z GFS 500mb #wiggle-room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Sref inched northwest with a lean to the northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Gfs and Euro are growing farther apart in the eventual outcome of the coastal. One of them is going to bust badly. That seems to be the norm this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Sref inched northwest with a lean to the northwestSince they are run off the NAM I would suspect the 0z NAM to follow suit and tick NW as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Since they are run off the NAM I would suspect the 0z NAM to follow suit and tick NW as well.They are run off the prior NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 They are run off the prior NAMGood to know, but also interesting....I always noted the 21z srefs as a precursor to what the 0z nam shows, especially regarding bigger events. Must just have been coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Ridging out ahead of the 500mb low looks slightly better thru 45 but with that said, the confluence is also slightly stronger and trying to press farther South. When I say slight on both aspects, I mean it....very little notable differences aloft so far imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Ridging out ahead of the 500mb low looks slightly better thru 45 but with that said, the confluence is also slightly stronger and trying to press farther South. When I say slight on both aspects, I mean it....very little notable differences aloft so far imo.I had to check the time stamps earlier on in the run to make sure I wasn't still looking at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I was going say it looked slightly north up to hour 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I was going say it looked slightly north up to hour 51definitely north and also high pressure more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Another run, another tick N and a hair W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 It's north at hour 60.but I can't say the rest if run will be good or not yet. Loading so slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Nam is drier with the overrunning and ots with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Further south : 18z 00z Precip shield is much less expansive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 500mb trof is a bit broader which allows this to escape due East off of Hatteras. Looked ok thru about 54 then crapped the bed. No go this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Terrible NAM run. The driest run yet. NYC barely gets .10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Storm being forced east - luckily Nam is still out of its range < 60 hours with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYGiantsFan99 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 what exactly is the nam's wheelhouse? is it reached by tomorrow night? Edit: someone edited their post to clarify nam's wheelhouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 what exactly is the nam's wheelhouse? is it reached by tomorrow night? Edit: someone edited their post to clarify nam's wheelhouse Nam can be very unreliable at times at any hour but generally anything over 60 hours taken with a grain of salt so to say - and its forcing the storm east past 60 hours - its not following the current northwest trends most modeling has been showing the last day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Terrible NAM run. The driest run yet. NYC barely gets .10. Yep drier and further southeast. Lets see what the other models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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