PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The Euro has overrunning, it's just insanely dry which it seemingly always is. Some are not looking at the Euro . They just play off others comments . It now has .2 with the over running . Had .1 at 0z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 Remember when the euro had a snowstorm for us a few days ago for friday lol The Euro has been just like another model since late January with such a strong northern branch of the jet. In some respects, this super El Nino has been more Nina-like recently which isn't the Euro's strength. If we had a normal Nino STJ instead, I am sure the Euro would be doing much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I think that we get more precip on the first SW coming from Canada. Should have some nice moisture advection The new German ICON model has been showing this for three runs in a row. After that, it's Auf Wiedersehen to the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 We had overnight snows of 2 inches back in February that barely stuck to pavement..im expecting similar with this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Big shift NW on the 15z SREF 09z 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Not sure if it was mentioned by the UKMET has a really nice signal for the WAA precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 EPS looks N of the op to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 EPS looks N of the op to meThe coastal is still OTS, miss. It's become evident that we miss the coastal storm and get overrunning from the primary low weakening and decaying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 We had overnight snows of 2 inches back in February that barely stuck to pavement..im expecting similar with this event Completely different situation. We had rain and above freezing temps until the pre-dawn hours, when the rain changed to snow and it snowed at 31-32F for several hours, accumulating 2-5" on colder surfaces (you were likely the only one with only 2" in all of Central Jersey) and 1-2" on untreated paved surfaces - that was expected given the marginal temps. With temps below 32F on Thursday night until at least through rush hour Friday morning for all of this subforum (reaching the mid-20s before dawn), any snow that falls will accumulate. Sure, any snow that falls after about 9 am on Friday, when the sun is up will have trouble accumulating in the early March indirect sunlight (unless we have good rates), but I think people will be far more concerned with conditions from 6-9 am on Friday. All of this is contingent upon us getting any snow, of course, but if it snows while it's dark, it'll stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The coastal is still OTS, miss. It's become evident that we miss the coastal storm and get overrunning from the primary low weakening and decaying The EPS now throws snow back to the CNJ coast Just E of NYC and LI with the coastal and likes the Clipper Sunday . There was 0 from the coastal at 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 EPS 0z vs 12z Not sure if it is just a result of a few W members or it is bending a little W . But some of you were insisting this needs to be on board . Well it`s not totally OTS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The coastal is still OTS, miss. It's become evident that we miss the coastal storm and get overrunning from the primary low weakening and decaying Do you actually look at this stuff ? I am beginning to think you don`t bother and just post away . There is no way you could have compared 0z to 12z and yelled MISS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Early on the NAM is further N with the primary . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Do you actually look at this stuff ? I am beginning to think you don`t bother and just post away . There is no way you could have compared 0z to 12z and yelled MISS . It's a miss. Next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 It's a miss. Next... In Rockland yes . But don`t cry , you still get into this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 This looks like another NYC/LI bullseye. 1"-3" for all from the primary and then 2"-4" more for LI from the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Upton, has lost faith,compared to yesterday's gung-ho afternoon update. -- Changed Discussion -- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 12Z MODEL RUNS STILL HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THIS SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. AT THIS TIME...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS STORM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THAT COULD BRING A BURST OF LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIGHT RAIN ON MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND FALLING WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK ON SATURDAY TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Upton, has lost faith,compared to yesterday's gung-ho afternoon update. -- Changed Discussion -- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 12Z MODEL RUNS STILL HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THIS SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. AT THIS TIME...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS STORM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THAT COULD BRING A BURST OF LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIGHT RAIN ON MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND FALLING WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK ON SATURDAY TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. -- End Changed Discussion -- You are in a good spot in Orient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 This looks like another NYC/LI bullseye. 1"-3" for all from the primary and then 2"-4" more for LI from the coastal. I think the city could actually be in a bit of a shaft zone as the precip jumps. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I think the city could actually be in a bit of a shaft zone as the precip jumps. Time will tell. My money is on southern nj right now as the likely shaft zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 18z RGEM lol no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 lol no Post deleted, I thought the 18z RGEM went to 60hrs but once you get after hour 48 it flips to the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Post deleted, I thought the 18z RGEM went to 60hrs but once you get after hour 48 it flips to the 12z GGEM. 6z and 18z go to 54 on meteocentre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Sacrificed some overrunning for a closer whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Not a ton of cold air around for this one. If this came that much further NW I bet the coast would have experienced some issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 This storms coming north, an I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Upton, has lost faith,compared to yesterday's gung-ho afternoon update. -- Changed Discussion -- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 12Z MODEL RUNS STILL HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THIS SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. AT THIS TIME...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS STORM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THAT COULD BRING A BURST OF LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIGHT RAIN ON MONDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND FALLING WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK ON SATURDAY TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. -- End Changed Discussion -- They weren't very optimistic/gung ho late last night or this morning either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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