Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Dude you 're being a child.Huh? Why so tense Paul? It was a tongue-in-cheek post. Posted in the wrong forum....was intended for banter. No need to get testy over a silly wx forum post, seriously. In all honesty tho, those models I alluded to have been referenced quite a bit lately irt this threat. Just to wrap up, I never said anything in that particular post about a monster wrapped up storm....others have. I believe you called out the wrong poster, but Im over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The current model consensus has the storm tomorrow doing too good a job of suppressing the WAR. It becomes a strong 50/50 so the confluence remains strong over the Northeast. We need an under 72 hr weaker 50/50 and stronger WAR than forecast to allow a further NW track with the 3/4-3/5 storm. But not enough separation between storms has messed things up in the past. At least we finally got something forced under instead of another cutter. Doesn't mean anything if no one gets hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Huh? Why so tense Paul? It was a tongue-in-cheek post. Posted in the wrong forum....was intended for banter. No need to get testy over a silly wx forum post, seriously. In all honesty tho, those models I alluded to have been referenced quite a bit lately irt this threat. Just to wrap up, I never said anything in that particular post about a monster wrapped up storm....others have. I believe you called out the wrong poster, but Im over it. I posted the NAVGEM that's what I answered. I think the 4K NAM is too strong and the Euro a little weak. I like the precip look at 72 on the UKMET and the overall look of the 6z GEFS. I don't buy a big wrapped up coastal but I think LI should watch for enhancement. Need the 1st SW to carry through because the LP at OBX will not touch N posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 Doesn't mean anything if no one gets hit At least the MJO signal was correct for a storm taking a cold track. The best that you can do day 6-10 is identify windows of opportunity. The individual storm details are subject to details that can't be seen that far out. So any measurable snowfall at all will be a victory of sorts in what has been a relentless cutter pattern with numerous days over 50 and 60 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 GEFS. A lot of near misses. Some hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 GEFS. A lot of near misses. Some hits. At this point you have to change your avatar back snow. I believe it may be the only thing that can save this event. We're sinking fast since you changed to summer mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I know the NAM is still out of range a bit but it did look nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I know the NAM is still out of range a bit but it did look nice Nam is further west than 6z. So close. Hope the west trend happens this time also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 Nam is further west than 6z. So close. Hope the west trend happens this time also. Not a bad look with the .25 precip line pushing NW of NYC. Close to .50 for Eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 NAM only needs a small nudge NW for it to be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 NAM still 2-4" as is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Not a bad look with the .25 precip line pushing NW of NYC. Close to .50 for Eastern LI. nam_namer_084_precip_p60.gif Some of that is the rain tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 Some of that is the rain tonight. No...that's just the Friday storm isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Hmm. Actually brushes SNJ with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The 12z GFS is 2-4" for a lot of places. Keep in mind that the precip jumps at some point from the ULL to the developing coastal so you're going to have a shaft zone in there somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The northern low is further north on the gfs and the high is east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Wow, GFS as is, is a nice 2-4" deal, but a hairwhisper away from being a classic SECS/MECS at day 3-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Hmm. Actually brushes SNJ with the coastal. Long Island is a tick closer on the GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 BL in the 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The GGEM has a few inches of snow Thursday night into Friday with the overrunning and then the coastal is OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Looks like we're honing in on a light event, which if the snows are during the mid-day probably won't accumulate except on colder surfaces....ground is warm and temps are close to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Looks like we're honing in on a light event, which if the snows are during the mid-day probably won't accumulate except on colder surfaces....ground is warm and temps are close to freezing. Awful analysis Take 5 minutes and read before you post . There are 2 posts above that did the work for you so you don`t have to waste everyone`s time with this stuff . It`s Thrs night into Friday with temps in the 20s . You see that right ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The GGEM is actually about 18 hours of light to moderate snows. Begins around midnight Thursday night and ends Friday afternoon. Would probably be a high end advisory level event in most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Awful analysis Take 5 minutes and read before you post . There are 2 posts above that did the work for you so you don`t have to waste everyone`s time with this stuff . It`s Thrs night into Friday with temps in the 20s . You see that right ? LOL look at the time stamp on the GFS 1pm Friday---that's not mid-day? Thurs night-that's from the over-running from the western piece that cuts into S Ohio and would agree on that part, but the coastal is Friday morning on the GFS (if we get it at all) There's also likely to be a jump zone from the overrunning to the coastal so some areas will get shadowed. A lot working against us here IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 that's from the over-running and would agree, but the coastal is Friday mid-day on (if we get it at all) There's also likely to be a jump zone from the overrunning to the coastal so some areas will get shadowed. A lot working against us here IMO. Right now the screw zone is actually likely to be more noticeable in the MA than it is up this way. This is a setup which occurs often but more frequently we are in the screw zone here with the overrunning over upstate NY and the coastal forming off Long Island. It's a bit unusual to see this sort of event displaced this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Looks like we're honing in on a light event, which if the snows are during the mid-day probably won't accumulate except on colder surfaces....ground is warm and temps are close to freezing.If the GFS and GGEM are correct, if, then it falls overnight Thursday into Friday morning. In that case it would accumulate. If it fell during the daylight hours, then yes, white rain on the roads and sidewalks with light to moderate snow. That said, the setup being shown is very unusual and it probably does not go down as is depicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 If the GFS and GGEM are correct, if, then it falls overnight Thursday into Friday morning. In that case it would accumulate. If it fell during the daylight hours, then yes, white rain on the roads and sidewalks with light to moderate snow. That said, the setup being shown is very unusual and it probably does not go down as is depicted CMC has it earlier- Thursday night but it seems to focus more on the over-running.... GFS seems to get it in here Friday AM which would not be good for accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 LOL look at the time stamp on the GFS 1pm Friday---that's not mid-day? Thurs night-that's from the over-running from the western piece that cuts into S Ohio and would agree on that part, but the coastal is Friday morning on the GFS (if we get it at all) There's also likely to be a jump zone from the overrunning to the coastal so some areas will get shadowed. A lot working against us here IMO. The GGEM is a night time event 2 to 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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