wthrmn654 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Upwards of 20" on the Cape I just saw that and was about to change that! Didn't expect next hour to go up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Anyway, strictly based on the cmc run, Eastern long island, those island, cape cod would do well with 3-6 extreme Eastern Suffolk, and upwards of 9 on cape cod. Cape cod gets close to 20 on ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Cape cod could see winds of 60knots, with the storm at its closest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Well the ggem and now the navgem has folded and both ots Still a little time to trend better but I think we should watch out for the overrunning. GFS has 1-3 inches, Nam about the same and ggem about 2-4 inch es. Navgem hasn't finished loading yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Navgem hasn't finished loading yet. It has on the navy site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The sampling argument is what people use when models don't show a storm. It's over. "Sampling" isn't an actual model issue When you've modeled a chaotic system, such as the weather, and seen the impact of varying the initial conditions on the model output, then come talk to me. Until then, I suggest you read more and post less. Sampling to obtain accurate initial conditions is probably the Achilles Heel of modern meteorological modelng. Also, read up on ensemble forecasting, wherein one runs Monte Carlo method simulations, featuring randomized perturbations of initial conditions to gauge the model sensitivity to those initial conditions - errors in initial conditions, as well as a paucity of high density 3D initial condition data (the usual case when the energy is not over land and out of the radiosonde network) combine to make error bars on model output that become larger and larger as one increments the model forward in time. All that said, theoretically, the initial condition errors shouldn't be biased in a systemic direction leading to a model output bias, so if most of the models are showing out to sea, that's the smart bet to make (but one which could still be wrong). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I think most snow lovers would gladly take 2 or 3 inches of overrunning snow thursday night into friday morning. Hopefully it will work out like NAM and GGEM show. We need one last snow event before the warmth settles in next week, even if it's a light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 0z GEFS 2 members hit NYC. 0 on the 18z run http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip00096.gif I think most snow lovers would gladly take 2 or 3 inches of overrunning snow thursday night into friday morning. Hopefully it will work out like NAM and GGEM show. We need one last snow event before the warmth settles in next week, even if it's a light event. Agree. 2-4 would be nice. It would get me to 40 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Meanwhile, look at the latest gefs, it shifted amounts north. Hour 102, 24 HR precipitation And it shifted the track west of last run. Maybe 20 miles or more. But it did shift. Again,only relaying model info I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Last thing on the gefs, comparing to last run, the models were fairly clustered with he low placement. This run, there not coated as well and I do see more to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 No changes on the Euro at all. Looks similiar to 12z. Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Uptons take: AT THIS POINT BASED ON EXPLAINED VARIANCE OF ENSEMBLE MODEL SPREAD THIS APPEARS TO BE A LOWER PROB SOLUTION...WITH A GREATER PERCENTAGE OF THE MODEL SPREAD EXPLAINED BY SPEED/TIMING DIFFERENCES. BASED ON THIS...AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL CLUSTERING...STRONGER SIGNAL AT THIS POINT IS FOR LOW PRESSURE TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION TO BE AFFECTED BY A PERIOD OF NORTHERN PERIPHERY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AXIS THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND GUSTY NE/N WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE REGION TO BE AFFECTED BY HEAVIER SNOW BANDING AND STRONGER WIND FIELDS AROUND THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS LOW AT THIS POINT... One last snowfall would be nice and I think 1-3" is likely the outcome. I don't see this making a move large enough to give us any more than that. Would be a nice surprise but at this point the least likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Here is the 6z GFS . 84 out . You can see the NEG tilt here starting at 72 , look at the 700 mb field before you look at the precip field . You would snow if you force that kind of lift all the way back to Buffalo . Look at it` position at 78 off OBX and then where it is at 84 hours . You will need at about a 100 mile W shift for this become a snowstorm for CNJ/NYC/LI/ECT. Being that we are 84 hours out , I would keep an eye on how far W this continues to come . As it is the 1st SW carries snow throughout the entire area as it comes E throughout the entire area . Then it hands off its energy to a center at OBX . It is at this time you will have to watch to see if E areas can cash in . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I was surprised to see that gefs and geps shifted west slightly again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Here are the GFS ensembles over the last 12 hours . At 84 hours these incremental nudges W could add up if they continue . You can see the precip shield respond . ( Still not enough ) . At some point the W trend will stop . It will come down to how the models handle the press through the lakes . I don`t expect a huge jump W but maybe just enough for E areas to be effected by this . All areas will snow with the 1st center as it will carry it`s snow into the entire area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 'General' model consensus is screaming PHL-NYC flizzard with Eastern LI towards Cape Cod needing to 'stay tuned' for potential accumulating snows. I'm not sold on the latter yet with the kicker trying to keep things moving along, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 It ain't the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 More NAM-like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 6Z VS 0Z NAVGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I saw that Paul, Navgem definitely came back NW. I wouldn't be surprised to see a solution somewhere in the middle of all the current guidance. Seems the Euro is on the southern side now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The more intense the system it is the more wrapped up it will be so therefore if you're trying to get the precip shield further NW you should probably root for a weaker system initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I saw that Paul, Navgem definitely came back NW. I wouldn't be surprised to see a solution somewhere in the middle of all the current guidance. Seems the Euro is on the southern side now. JC I think the first SW carries S all the way through 2 to 4 ish . ( last nights UKMET at 72 precip maps show it ) . Then at OBX is it NE or ENE ? . I am not sure yet . I like that the GEFS has now bumped the .5 line to the Jersey shore at 6z . Another 75 miles W and it`s a warning level event of L I . The 4k NAM may be too strong and the Euro too weak . So I agree with you the middle ground is prob a good bet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The more intense the system it is the more wrapped up it will be so therefore if you're trying to get the precip shield further NW you should probably root for a weaker system initially.It's a bit of a catch 22 with that.I'll be perfectly honest, I wanted this thing to boot east as quick as possible to make room for the clipper. But that looks to be squashed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I like that the GEFS has now bumped the .5 line to the Jersey shore at 6z . I think that is probably a function of the overrunning. Still a handful of members at 0z that didn't have it. So that could be a good sign down here, might not do much up by me or in the northern OKX zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 It's a bit of a catch 22 with that. I'll be perfectly honest, I wanted this thing to boot east as quick as possible to make room for the clipper. But that looks to be squashed now. Clippers very rarely perform well here. Most of the time they are moisture starved until they get off the NJ coast and by then the best forcing is moving offshore with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Clippers very rarely perform well here. Most of the time they are moisture starved until they get off the NJ coast and by then the best forcing is moving offshore with it.Lol I know. I didn't say I wasn't thinking selfishly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Lol I know. I didn't say I wasn't thinking selfishly. Clipper had a chance in SNE but now it is gone . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 You know its bad when people are using the navgem, jma, kma, and nam at 84 hours to make arguments that somehow this is trending towards a more favorable solution. I would add to the circus with the CRAS except it's a fairly flat wave that goes from SC to Bermuda with the precip shield staying well S and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 You know its bad when people are using the navgem, jma, kma, and nam at 84 hours to make arguments that somehow this is trending towards a more favorable solution. I would add to the circus with the CRAS except it's a fairly flat wave that goes from SC to Bermuda with the precip shield staying well S and E.Dude you 're being a child. The GEFS is 2 to 4. You're not getting a big wrapped up coastal. Your snow will come via the 1st piece. Only LI should be watching the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 The current model consensus has the storm tomorrow doing too good a job of suppressing the WAR. It becomes a strong 50/50 so the confluence remains strong over the Northeast. We need an under 72 hr weaker 50/50 and stronger WAR than forecast to allow a further NW track with the 3/4-3/5 storm. But not enough separation between storms has messed things up in the past. At least we finally got something forced under instead of another cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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