EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Not promising for the NYC area and southward for the 3/3-4 storm. Further north e.g., POU, there's a decent snowfall. The most frustrating aspect of this current situation is that the AO is favorable, MJO is favorable, PNA etc... and we are lacking a cold air source and therefore get cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 The most frustrating aspect of this current situation is that the AO is favorable, MJO is favorable, PNA etc... and we are lacking a cold air source and therefore get cold rain. Locally, we actually did better when the MJO was in the warm phases-go figure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 The most frustrating aspect of this current situation is that the AO is favorable, MJO is favorable, PNA etc... and we are lacking a cold air source and therefore get cold rain. and will be favorable next week - next week hasn't happened yet of course and there is a chance the modeling will catch on to the indices forecasted and MJO phase and we will end up with a colder stormier scenario next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 The most frustrating aspect of this current situation is that the AO is favorable, MJO is favorable, PNA etc... and we are lacking a cold air source and therefore get cold rain. Unfavorable +NAO keeps helping to pump the Western Atlantic Ridge for much of the last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Our luck with the NAO finally ran out-we did well for 2 years with a largely +NAO but the chickens have come home to roost for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Unfavorable +NAO keeps helping to pump the Western Atlantic Ridge for much of the last month. nao.sprd2.gif but that is not the only reason we have not had much snowfall the last few weeks - we have had enough cold air outbreaks ( one which was historic ) to work with - poor timing - etc etc is partially to blame too and other factors which we do not fully understand...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Well its true its never too late. I would love to know what the teleconnections were for the back to back snowstorms in March 19 and 22 1992. NYC received over half the winters snowfall in 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Eps does not have a cutter like the gfs does for the first week of march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Eps does not have a cutter like the gfs does for the first week of marchEps has good agreement of coastal low off jersey somehwere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 The EPS have been having a rough go of it recently as they also had todays storm going east of us last week. They are all on their own as the UKMET/CMC/GFS are lined up against them. ps2png-atls17-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-gML3RL.png NEW.png Yes but gefs doesnt agree with the op. We have a while to go with this one. I would think the euro will be right with its thinking. Mjo going into 8 with the AO crashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Eps also has the overunning just like the op. Leta hope the euro is right and other models start following it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Well its true its never too late. I would love to know what the teleconnections were for the back to back snowstorms in March 19 and 22 1992. NYC received over half the winters snowfall in 3 days. the ao/nao were positive except for March 23rd...PNA was mostly negative except for March 18th-20th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 the ao/nao were positive except for March 23rd...PNA was mostly negative except for March 18th-20th... Thanks. I remember being so happy that weekend with the 2 mid March storms after a horrid winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Thanks. I remember being so happy that weekend with the 2 mid March storms after a horrid winter and I think they came at night so no sun angle issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Now try and figure out how we got 2 accumulating snowfalls in those 3 days ! I remember it being frigid for the 2nd storm which was a strong clipper that dropped 3. Jim Cantore I think it was said this is the coldest you will see it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 and I think they came at night so no sun angle issues. The clipper was definately at night. The first one which dropped 7 was at night too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I remember it being frigid for the 2nd storm which was a strong clipper that dropped 3. Jim Cantore I think it was said this is the coldest you will see it snow. It was only in the mid - upper 20's in the region for the second one March 22 http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1992/3/22/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Gfs tried to do the overrunning but failed. It is holding on to the colder air longer on the 18z gfs run for sne. Still a lakes cutter but slightly flatter than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Gfs tried to do the overrunning but failed. It is holding on to the colder air longer on the 18z gfs run for sne. Still a lakes cutter but slightly flatter than 12z. high quickly moves offshore with no blocking and it cuts--985 west of Detroit. Rain to northern Maine again.... Can't make this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 high quickly moves offshore with no blocking and it cuts--985 west of Detroit. Rain to northern Maine again.... Can't make this stuff up.Guess we don't have to worry about a dry Spring Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 high quickly moves offshore with no blocking and it cuts--985 west of Detroit. Rain to northern Maine again.... Can't make this stuff up. Calm down. This storm is over a week away. Gfs tries to plow a low into 1035+ highs . I doubt that is going to happen. Euro sees the highs and sends the storm south which makea sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I remember it being frigid for the 2nd storm which was a strong clipper that dropped 3. Jim Cantore I think it was said this is the coldest you will see it snow. Both mixed here in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 high quickly moves offshore with no blocking and it cuts--985 west of Detroit. Rain to northern Maine again.... Can't make this stuff up. I've thrown in the towel for this year, just get rid of this disgusting rain. Ugh. Yeah we need the water, but it's already too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 0z GFS shifted way southeast from the 18z run for next week. Instead of going over Chicago, it goes over State College. . Still rain here but the GFS is now seeing the high up north and going more south with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 0z GFS shifted way southeast from the 18z run for next week. Instead of going over Chicago, it goes over State College. New England gets crushed . Still rain here but the GFS is now seeing the high up north and going more south with the storm. How does New England get crushed if it goes over state College? Seems like a horrible track for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Wow, GFS is a weenies dream. Snowstorm after snowstorm. No warmup in sight after next week. How does New England get crushed if it goes over state College? Seems like a horrible track for them. Just fixed it. Maine gets hit good but it went a good deal south from last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Overnight runs, all cutters again, all models, operationals and ensembles. Even the EPS caved to the GFS, GGEM suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 25, 2016 Author Share Posted February 25, 2016 but that is not the only reason we have not had much snowfall the last few weeks - we have had enough cold air outbreaks ( one which was historic ) to work with - poor timing - etc etc is partially to blame too and other factors which we do not fully understand...... In addition to the strong Western Atlantic Ridge pattern, that has been an unusual split flow pattern this month with a strong northern branch like we see during La Ninas. Notice how weak the STJ is this month compared to other very strong El Ninos in February. This parade of cutters is also common during La Nina events. We have also been seeing the Euro and EPS struggling with storm placement over a week out like we saw with the severe event yesterday. The UKMET has been doing pretty well calling the far west cutter track early while the Euro and EPS was east of us. My only guess why the Euro may be struggling is that it can sometimes have difficulty with the northern branch of the jet. Look how the split flow with strong northern branch and weaker STJ is much different from years like 98 and 83. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 In addition to the strong Western Atlantic Ridge pattern, that has been an unusual split flow pattern this month with a strong northern branch like we see during La Ninas. Notice how weak the STJ is this month compared to other very strong El Ninos in February. This parade of cutters is also common during La Nina events. We have also been seeing the Euro and EPS struggling with storm placement over a week out like we saw with the severe event yesterday. The UKMET has been doing pretty well calling the far west cutter track early while the Euro and EPS was east of us. My only guess why the Euro may be struggling is that it can sometimes have difficulty with the northern branch of the jet. Look how the split flow with strong northern branch and weaker STJ is much different from years like 98 and 83. 2016.gif 98.gif 83.gif Would a record warm arctic be contributing to a stronger northern jet? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Overnight runs, all cutters again, all models, operationals and ensembles. Even the EPS caved to the GFS, GGEM suite until that WAR relaxes and/or we get some west based blocking, we're toast as far as cold and snow. UKMET has led the way here of late. Euro has been horrible 5-7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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