UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Still snowing at 84 hours. Correct from very light overrunning snows, the coastal that would be our storm is way offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 GGEM is what you want for a big storm, and the nam looks nothing it, idk why we're even analyzing the 84hr nam this in depth but whatever Nams the only model showing that low pressure in PA, and if that were the case you would get a light 1-3/2-4" overrunning event while the main show slips off the NC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Correct from very light overrunning snows, the coastal that would be our storm is way offshore Correct We are either going to get hit with the coastal and the overrunning or the overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Correct We are either going to get hit with the coastal and the overrunning or the overrunning. Only problem is the nam the only model showing that kind of overrunning, the GGEM has it but it's part of the main coastals precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Gfs looks identical thru 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Low develops off NC shore same as 12 and 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Mayyyyybe a tick NW thru 87, but damn close to exactly the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 GFS OTS, pretty hard to ignore 3 straight nearly identical runs I mean other than intensity variances, and slight 25 mile shifts the last 3 runs have been identical to the T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 GFS OTS, pretty hard to ignore 3 straight nearly identical runs I mean other than intensity variances, and slight 25 mile shifts the last 3 runs have been identical to the T The heavier precip is just slightly offshore. Even though these 3 runs are about the same, it wouldnt take too big of a shift to give NYC a snowstorm. Still over 3 days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The heavier precip is just slightly offshore. Even though these 3 runs are about the same, it wouldnt take too big of a shift to give NYC a snowstorm. Still over 3 days to go. If you consider over 200 miles "just slightly offshore" then sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The heavier precip is just slightly offshore. Even though these 3 runs are about the same, it wouldnt take too big of a shift to give NYC a snowstorm. Still over 3 days to go. Agree. More northwest this run and really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 If you consider over 200 miles "just slightly offshore" then sure Do you look at anything other than the surface? Just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Do you look at anything other than the surface? Just wondering. I do... Would you like to disprove the fact that the "heavy" precip is at least 200 miles from being over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Do you look at anything other than the surface? Just wondering.Does the 500 MB look better to your eye Rjay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 If you consider over 200 miles "just slightly offshore" then sure To me 200 miles is just slightly offshore, especially with a few days to go. Look at where GFS had it 2 days ago. Not much of a shift is now needed to give NYC a snowstorm. We don't know if it will happen, but it's very close on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Does the 500 MB look better to your eye Rjay? It does but we need bigger improvements. It prob won't make a big difference in the end but small improvements do start adding up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 GGEM caved to the GFS, still winds up a storm but wayy east, only substantial for Eastern Massachusetts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 GGEM more or less caved to GFS. At least by 50%. Not shocking at all. The GGEM was way too aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 GGEM folded. Just a matter of time. We still see some snow from the overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 It's east and has lower pressure,but it's still brings the area some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I'm waiting? I never talked about any surface features on the gfs and there's nothing to disprove. I asked a simple question. Let's move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Oh man,if cmc is right that thing bombs ! Pressure of 970 east of cape cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 It does but we need bigger improvements. It prob won't make a big difference in the end but small improvements do start adding up.Let's be patient and see where we are by this time tomorrow. NAM will be nearing sweet spot and any additional model help is welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Oh man,if cmc is right that thing bombs ! Pressure of 970 east of cape cod Few inches for some areas on the GGEM. It's a bomb offshore . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT- FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ONCE AGAIN...STILL DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE ALEUTIAN LOW. ANYTIME YOU ARE RELYING ON ENERGY INTERACTING WITH/EJECTING FROM A CUTOFF LOW THERE IS A HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL. ADDED TO THIS...THIS IS IN A REGION NOT WELL SAMPLED BY RADIOSONDES...AND THIS INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY EVEN FURTHER. IF MODEL TIMING IS ANYWHERE NEAR CORRECT...THE ENERGY IN QUESTION SHOULD REACH THE WEST COAST SOMEWHERE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CERTAINTY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER THAT POINT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Tell that to Upton. With balloon launches, they are then able to input data directly into to the models. Occasionally the sampling thing still has impacts. We had a storm a few winters back, it may have been in 13-14 which was a lock on almost all guidance til about 84-96 hours out and as soon as the disturbance came ashore in California all models lost the storm. The system made a comeback to be a respectable hit but it never was what was depicted initially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Anyway, strictly based on the cmc run, Eastern long island, those island, cape cod would do well with 3-6 extreme Eastern Suffolk, and upwards of 9 on cape cod. Correction: 3-7 Eastern Suffolk with between Rhode Island and cape cod being the jackpot with upwards of 22 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Occasionally the sampling thing still has impacts. We had a storm a few winters back, it may have been in 13-14 which was a lock on almost all guidance til about 84-96 hours out and as soon as the disturbance came ashore in California all models lost the storm. The system made a comeback to be a respectable hit but it never was what was depicted initiallyI do remember that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Anyway, strictly based on the cmc run, Eastern long island, those island, cape cod would do well with 3-6 extreme Eastern Suffolk, and upwards of 9 on cape cod. Upwards of 20" on the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 12z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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