Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 So you have the Canadien, the Navy, & probably the NAM...which is better than nothing...I guess...though those would likely not be my top 3 models of choice...though I would take them over...hmm...*ponders* Its getting late though...the Canadien had snow in the area by about 11:00 PM Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Verbatim based off 10:1 ratios, NAVGEM is 8-12" for most of the city/Long Island/ and jersey, 6-10" for most of the Hudson valley with a cutoff of 4-6 well north of 84, and 12-18+ for DE/SNJSo it shifted SE from last run. Even the rats are leaving this sinking ship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 So you have the Canadien, the Navy, & probably the NAM...which is better than nothing...I guess.You don't have the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 And the gefs is close,but no cigar. The gefs are very discouraging, not a single ensembles member has anywhere near what the GGEM, or NAVGEM show.... Not a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 So it shifted SE from last run. Even the rats are leaving this sinking ship Yes NAVGEM came south east quit a bit unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 You don't have the NAM. I beg to differ. You have an intensifying ENE bound cyclone over the coal fields of Kentucky and an expanding precipitation shield on NYC's doorstep with a nice concave anticyclone perched over Eastern Canada at Hour 84... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I beg to differ. You have an intensifying ENE bound cyclone over the coal fields of Kentucky and an expanding precipitation shield on NYC's doorstep with a nice concave anticyclone perched over Eastern Canada at Hour 84...Look at the 500mb. Positively tilted trough and a weakening shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Look at the 500mb. Positively tilted trough and a weakening shortwave. OK I will...as I've been occupied today and just took a cursory look at the surface charts ten minutes ago and have not looked at the upper air stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 OK I will...as I've been occupied today and just took a cursory look at the surface charts ten minutes ago and have not looked at the upper air stuff... I went through the 18z animation hours 72 to 84 and though it looks rather positive oriented at Hour 72 by Hour 84 it looks likes its gone neutral...which is a movement in the proper direction if we are to see a good snow event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The gefs are very discouraging, not a single ensembles member has anywhere near what the GGEM, or NAVGEM show.... Not a good sign They are close misses. Good spot at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I went through the 18z animation hours 72 to 84 and though it looks rather positive oriented at Hour 72 by Hour 84 it looks likes its gone neutral...which is a movement in the proper direction if we are to see a good snow event... We are either going to get hit with thw northern stream energy or the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 18z DWD-ICON sorta looked GGEM/NAVGEM like, can't really say much until we get the energy onshore... but I would hedge toward GFS/Euro/UKIE at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 a weakening shortwave. These things *always* struggle as they approach the Appalachians...what we call "fill" (indicative of a rise in barometric pressure in the primary low)...often leading to redevelopment from Hatteras to ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 We are either going to get hit with thw northern stream energy or the coastal. The strong high definitely could argue for some kind of overrunning snow even if the main system misses south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 These things *always* struggle as they approach the Appalachians...what we call "fill" (indicative of a rise in barometric pressure in the primary low)...often leading to redevelopment from Hatteras to ACY. The first system comes through into the TENNESSEE Valley then redevelops on then OBX You can see at 72 hours how far North on the EPS the individuals are compared to its 0z run at 84. All the guidance today showed weaker confluence in SE Canada The fact that their is no blocking should allow that vortex to release . You have a good ridge axis that extends through Boise and that argues for heights falls on the EC and lastly you have an ever present WAR that has been undermodeled at 120 hours all year. Now look at the indies at 96 at OBX is further W than at 0Z at 108 you can see the push W. We will know in another 24 hours if that trend continues. The key is the confluence. Nothing is set in stone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I forgot who said it but someone once mentioned on this forum said they remembered the NOGAPS was unstoppable in the 97-98 winter. The belief was that strong El Niño somehow counteracted its usual progressive bias. It's been surprisingly good this winter too on major systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 NOGAPS was unstoppable in the 97-98 winter protracted autumn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 NAVGEM is only 8-12" for most here... Southern jersey and Deleware get poundedonly? It clearly depicts a windy blown snowstorm resulting blizzard light conditions even for where you are, obviously the closer to the coast the more snow and heavier rates and winds. Plenty of runs left and far from the final solution but navgem 18z clearly shows a blizzard for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 only? It clearly depicts a windy blown snowstorm resulting blizzard light conditions even for where you are, obviously the closer to the coast the more snow and heavier rates and winds. Plenty of runs left and far from the final solution but navgem 18z clearly shows a blizzard for NYC Huh!!!!!???? Your calling "blizzard conditions" based off a precip depiction map with isobars... The NAVGEM is 3-5" for me and NOT BLIZZARD conditions... 3 sustained hours of blizzard criteria? Not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Huh!!!!!???? Your calling "blizzard conditions" based off a precip depiction map with isobars... The NAVGEM is 3-5" for me and NOT BLIZZARD conditions... 3 sustained hours of blizzard criteria? Not even close Might have to go against you here Orange...987 mb Low east of the Delmarva with heavy snow falling...hard *not* to have blizzard conditions given those circumstances... Edit: Re-read the original post...he was referring to up the Hudson Valley...not the coast...so you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I'm sorry guys, but with the how the ridge is modeled on the euro and camp, I can't take the GGEM/NAVGEM combo serious.... I would give it credence if the other guidance was making better "shifts" but 25 miles a day north is not gonna do it, we need the ukie, JMA, euro, eps, most gefs, and the GFS to all be under modeling the WAR, and make dramatic shifts over the next few days.. Impossible? No, but if I'm hoping for a storm.. Those aren't the modeles I wanna have to rely on to play "catch-up" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 So it shifted SE from last run. Even the rats are leaving this sinking ship yup pretty big shift south east on the navy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Last 3 runs of the NAM with the surface reflection into the Midwest . 3rd move N now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The NAM at the end of its run develops the coastal low WAY offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The NAM at the end of its run develops the coastal low WAY offshore But it does have accumulating snow here Thursday night into Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The NAM at the end of its run develops the coastal low WAY offshore Agree, trend towards euro and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 The NAM at the end of its run develops the coastal low WAY offshore Still snowing at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 There is a decent low in Pittsburgh as well with perfect high placement, might not be a blizzard, but the nam depiction has 3-6" written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Look at hour 84... compare it to this run and last run. Low develops further north.. Whether it means anything or not, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 There is a decent low in Pittsburgh as well with perfect high placement, might not be a blizzard, but the nam depiction has 3-6" written all over it Agree. Decent run. Low is in a good spot. It should transfer further north than what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.